Trudeau or Poilievre: Who do Canadians think would work best with Trump?
November 23, 2024
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only and all of the interviews we done following the U.S. Presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory. It’s our first survey after the U.S. election. We also asked Canadians to assess the impact of Trump’s election on Canada and which leader they believe would be best to manage the relationship with President Trump.
Most think the relationship with the United States will be worse under a Trump Administration.
Six in ten Canadians expect that Canada’s relationship with the United States will get worse following Donald Trump’s re-election. 1 in 4 think it will get much worse. In contrast, 17% think the relationship will improve while 24% think it won’t change.
Expectations are fairly consistent across the country and political groups although Conservative supporters are somewhat more likely to think the relationship will improve (27%) than Liberal supporters (17%).
When we dig into specific aspects of the relationship and outcomes, most Canadians think a Trump administration will create more economic uncertainty rather than more economic certainty.
A similar proportion expect there to be less action on climate change rather than more action on climate change. NDP and Liberal supporters more likely to believe this than Conservative supporters.
A larger majority (65%) believe that Trump’s victory will mean more tariffs and trade barriers rather than fewer tariffs and freer trade. Conservatives, Liberals, and NDPers all agree on this.
Views are more divided on whether Trump means better or worse defence and security cooperation. 40% think it will be worse while 26% think it will better. There is a difference of opinion between Conservative and Liberal/NDP supporters.
Most Canadians expect that immigration from the U.S. to Canada will increase because of Trump’s election. Only 16% expect there to be less immigration.
Trudeau and Trump: What is more important?
We asked Canadians which of two statements comes closest to their views? Whether Donald Trump’s dislike of and disagreement with Justin Trudeau and his government on many issues will hurt the federal government’s ability to protect Canada’s interest or whether Justin Trudeau and his government’s previous experience working with Trump will mean Canada’s interests will be well protected.
By a 3 to 1 margin, Canadians say Trump’s dislike of and disagreement with Trudeau will hamper Canadian interests rather than his experience with Trump being an assest. Even current Liberal supporters are split on this.
Which Leader has the Best Chance of Achieving Positive Outcomes for Canada with Trump?
So when we ask Canadians which leader has the best chance to achieve positive things for Canada with Trump, 45% pick Pierre Poilievre, followed by Justin Trudeau at 20% and Jagmeet Singh at 9%. 1 in 4 Canadians don’t know.
Not surprising that most current Liberals think Trudeau is best able to handle Trump and most Conservatives think Poilievre is best able to deal with it. But the percentage of Conservative supporters thinking Poilievre is better is higher than Liberals who feel Trudeau is best equipped. This suggests that Poilievre has a clear advantage if Canadians are considering who is best to deal with Trump when considering their preference in a future election.
When we ask who Canadians think Donald Trump would prefer to deal with as Prime Minister, the response is even more lopsided in Poilievre’s favour. 6 in 10 think Trump would prefer to work with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister. Only 12% think he’d want to work with Trudeau. Even about half of current Liberal supporters think Trump would prefer Poilievre over Trudeau.
The political upside of a Trump victory for the Trudeau Liberals seems quite limited. For example, when we ask Canadians who they think is the greater threat to Canada’s long-term prosperity – Trump or Trudeau – more say Trump than Trudeau but the gap isn’t that large. When you include the proportion who see them both as equal threats – 54% think Trudeau is either more of or an equal threat to Canada’s propersity than Trump. And among current Conservatives (keep in mind they are head of the Liberals by 22 points in vote intention), 78% think Trudeau is either more threatening than Trump or an equal threat to Canada’s long-term prosperity.
Who are Canadians More Likely to Vote for? Someone who stands up to Trump or Someone who is best able to work with him?
Canadians are fairly split on what approach most appeals to them when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump. 42% say they are more likely to vote for someone who is best able to work with him while 39% say they would prefer someone who stands up to Trump.
Liberals lean towards someone who stands up to Trump while Conservatives prefer someone who can best work with him – although some supporters of both parties see the reverse as more attractive. This suggests that some combination of working closely and standing firm on some things is probaly the best approach.
NDP supporters are the most likely to say they will vote for someone who stands up to Trump (59%).
Finally, when asked if Trump’s election has caused them to reconsider who they might vote for, only 16% say it has. And when those 16% are asked who they are now more likely to support – 44% say Pierre Poilievre, 27% say Justin Trudeau, and 12% Jagmeet Singh. More evidence that Trump’s victory has not, at least right now, helped the political fortunes of Justin Trudeau or the Liberals.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Most Canadians are bracing for a potential second Trump administration with trepidation, fearing its negative impact on Canada’s economic certainty, immigration policies, and the broader bilateral relationship. Trump’s tumultuous first term left a deep impression on Canadians, shaping their expectations of what another term could mean for their country. Yet, rather than driving Canadians toward a domestic political alternative starkly opposed to Trump’s style, the prevailing sentiment is more pragmatic: Canadians are looking for a leader who can effectively navigate and defend Canadian interests under a Trump presidency.
This pragmatism underscores a vulnerability for Justin Trudeau. Trump’s well-documented animosity toward the Prime Minister looms large in public perception, with many Canadians doubting Trudeau’s ability to manage such a fraught relationship. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s more combative approach and clear willingness to stand up for Canadian interests resonate with those who see him as better equipped to handle a difficult U.S. leader. The data reveals that Poilievre’s perceived toughness aligns with the public’s desire for a defender on the international stage, even as they remain wary of Trump’s policies.
For the Liberals, a Trump victory offers little political upside. While their progressive values might contrast starkly with Trump’s, that juxtaposition doesn’t seem to translate into increased support. Instead, the Conservatives appear better positioned to capitalize on a second Trump term. As Canadians prioritize practical leadership over ideological purity, the outcome of the next U.S. election could bolster Poilievre’s case for leadership at home, presenting yet another challenge for the Liberals as they struggle to redefine their path forward.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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