Abacus Data Poll: 57% of Canadians living in a Liberal held riding want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.
October 22, 2024
From October 17 to 22, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we asked Canadians their opinion on the future of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Only 1 in 5 Canadians Want Prime Minister Trudeau to Run Again. Almost Half Want Him to Resign Immediately.
Two in three Canadians want the Prime Minister to immediately resign as Prime Minister (47%), or stay on as Prime Minister but not run in the next election (21%). Only 20% want him to run in the next eleciton and stay on as Prime Minister.
Among those currently supporting the Liberals, 9% want him to resign immediately while 26% want him to stay on as Prime Minister but not run in the next election. Just over half of current Liberal supporters want the Prime Minister to run in the next election and stay on as Prime Minister.
Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, but today do not support the party, 40% want the Prime Minister to resign immediately, 32% want him to stay on as Prime Minister but not run again while only 16% want him to stay on as Prime Minister and run again.
Among those currently open to voting Liberal (accessible Liberals), only 40% want the Prime Minister to fight the next election and stay on as Prime Minister.
What should your Liberal MP do?
In the survey, we asked respondents for the first three digits of their postal code to determine which federal electoral district they live in. We then identified which people live in a constitutency currently represented by a Liberal Member of Parliament. In total, 660 respondents in our sample living in ridings currently held by a Liberal MP.
These people were asked what they would prefer their Member of Parliament to do: defend Justin Trudeau and encourage him to run again or call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.
Among Canadians who living in a Liberal seat, 57% want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again while 24% want their MP to defend him and encourage him to run again. 19% are unsure.
Specifically, among those who voted Liberal in 2021 who live in a seat currently represented by a Liberal MP, 47% want their MP to defend Justin Trudeau and encourage him to run while 39% want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.
For context, current vote intention in these Liberal held ridings is:
Conservative 42%
Liberal 25%
NDP 18%
BQ 6%
Green 5%
PPC 3%
Our usual Canadian politics tracker will be released on Sunday.
What might happen to Liberal support if Justin Trudeau resigned as Liberal Leader?
It is difficult to predict how Canadians would react to Justin Trudeau stepping down as leader because voting behaviour will depend a lot on who might replace him.
But in this survey, we wanted to understand what would happen to the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool – that is the group of people who would consider or be open to voting Liberal.
Near the beginning of every survey, we asked people whether they would consider or not consider voting Liberal. In this survey, 38% indicate they would be open to voting Liberal. This is the current Liberal Party accessible voter pool and it has been consistently in the high 30s for the past few months.
When we ask people whether they would consider voting Liberal if Justin Trudeay stepped down as Liberal leader, 43% say they would consider voting Liberal, a 5-point increase.
11% of the electorate would not consider voting Liberal today, but say they would if Justin Trudeau was not leader. The Conservative Party has 57% of the support among this group followed by 27% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 5% for the BQ.
The Liberal Party accessible voter pool increases by 5-points in Ontario, 6-points in British Columbia, and 13-points in Atlantic Canada. There is a 7-point increase among men, and 6-point increase among Millennials.
Among those who are currently accessible to the Liberals, 83% say they would remain accessible while 17% say they would no longer consider voting Liberal if Justin Trudeau stepped down.
Our usual Canadian politics tracker will be released, as usual, on Sunday. Subscribe to our newsletter to get the results to your inbox.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Just 1 in 5 Canadians want to see the Prime Minister stay on and run again. Almost half the country wants him to resign immediately while another 20% want him to stay on but not run again in the next election.
For Liberal MPs, there is widespread desire within their own constituencies to see them call for the Prime Minister to step down. Among those who voted Liberal in 2021 who currently live in Liberal ridings, 39% want their MP to call on the Prime Minister to step down.
Our data suggests that the party’s accessible voter pool would grow considerably from 38% to 43% if Trudeau stepped down. This wouldn’t solve the Liberal challenges but would at least open the door to more supporters.
Whether Prime Minister Trudeau ultimately decides to run again or not, the public believes he should not. Until there is a change in leadership, it is hard to see how the Liberals can become competitive again.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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