Abacus Data Poll: Post-Trudeau resignation, Conservative lead grows to 27. Freeland and Carney well ahead of others on recognizability, familiarity, and net favourable impression.
January 9, 2025
Following the announcement that Justin Trudeau will step down as Prime Minister and Liberal leader later this year, we conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,500 Canadian adults in both official languages from January 6 (starting at 5pm ET) to 7 (finishing around 11:30pm ET), 2025. The poll was conducted prior to Dominic Leblanc announcing he wasn’t going to run for Liberal leader.
This special survey asked our core political tracking questions along with questions aimed to gauge reaction to Trudeau’s resignation and to conduct an initial deep dive on the public awareness, impression, and perception of several of the individuals being discussed as replacements.
Vote Intention: Conservatives open up their biggest lead yet – 25 points.
If an election were held today, 47% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 20% would vote Liberal, and 18% for the NDP. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. All of the movement from the last survey is within the margin of error but this represents the largest Conservative lead in our tracking history and the lowest Liberal vote share since 2015.
Among those most certain to vote (think likely voters), the Conservative lead grows to 30 points.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec along in Quebec, we now have the Conservatives clearly and statistically ahead of the Liberals. The Conservatives lead by 21 in BC, 44 in Alberta, 34 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 25 in Ontario, and by 8 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 5 with the Liberals now clearly in third place.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.
51% of men would vote Conservative compared with 44% of women.
Since Trudeau’s announcement, we find a 4 point increase in those saying Canada is headed in the right direction. This is still near the low end of our tracking but represents a statistically significant shift in opinion.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 21% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 1) while disapproval is steady at 63% (up 1).
Today, 19% (down 1) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 64% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, resulting in a net score of -45, his worst ever in our tracking. His announcement did little to change people’s view of him so far.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives have increased since last month to their highest point in our tracking. Today 28% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 42% have a negative view for a net score of -14.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 41% have a positive view while 38% have a negative view for a net score of +2.
Reaction to Trudeau’s Resignation
Within a few hours of Trudeau’s announcement, 89% of Canadians said they were aware of his resignation. By the end of the following day, that number increased to 95%.
When asked how they found out about Mr. Trudeau’s announcement, 30% said they saw it on TV, 24% on social media, and 15% on a news website. 14% heard it from a friend or family member. The generational gap on this question is quite large. Younger Canadians were more likely to hear about it on social media (only 14% on TV) while almost half of Canadians over 60 learned of it on TV compared with 9% who said social media.
When asked how Trudeau’s resignation made them feel (respondents could choose up to 3 words), 42% said relieved followed by 30% who said optimistic and 27% were happy. There were big partisan differences.
When asked whether Trudeau’s resignation will make them more or less likely to vote Liberal, 23% said it would make them more likely, 18% said less likely, while 60% said it would have no impact. 29% of Liberal switchers (voted Liberal in 2021 but now don’t support the Liberals) say they are more likely to vote Liberal. 14% of current Conservative supporters and 28% of current NDP supporters say they are more likely to vote Liberal because Trudeau will no longer be leader.
If the Liberals can convert all those who say they are more likely to vote Liberal who are now voting NDP or Conservative, they would gain about 12-points in vote share increasing their share to 32%. This is highly hypothetical though. It confirms just how difficult a situation the Liberal Party finds itself at the moment.
Liberal Leadership
In the same survey, we asked Canadians several questions about some of the names being discussed as possible candidates for the Liberal Party leadership. Not all of the names being considered or have announced were tested but we will test others in the future.
The objective of these questions was to measure what Canadians know and feel about the possible candidates and assess what impact, if any, they might have on Liberal political fortunes if they were to become leader. Our goal is to track some of these questions over the next two months as the leadership race evolves.
Recognizability
Last summer, we asked Canadians whether they recognized the individuals in pictures shown to them in a survey. We redid the same exercise using the same pictures where applicable. In some cases, new individuals were tested so we don’t have any comparison.
When it comes to the current major party leaders, the results are more or less in line with what we found in July. Almost everyone recognizes Justin Trudeau and a clear majority recognize Jagmeet Singh and Pierre Poilievre. Since July, those able to identify Poilievre is up 5 while Singh’s recognition is down 8.
When it comes to possible Liberal leadership candidates, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is by far the most recognizable. 51% are able to identify her in the picture we used, up 12 points from July. 24% recognize Mark Carney, a 17-point increase from July while 22% recognize Melanie Joly, up 2. Anita Anand, Christy Clark, and newly appointed Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc trail (although Leblanc’s recognizability is up 8 points since July).
We also tested Francois-Philippe Champagne and Steven Guilbeault. Fewer than 1 in 10 Canadians could recognize them.
It should be noted that there were some regional differences. 50% of British Columbians could identify former Premier Christy Clark while about 1 in 5 in Quebec could identify Leblanc, Champagne, Guilbeault, and Joly. In Atlantic Canada, 21% could also identify Dominic Leblanc.
We also asked people how well they felt they knew each of the individuals by showing them their names. Again, Chrystia Freeland is the most familiar with Canadians with Joly and Carney second, and the rest behind.
We also asked whether people have a positive or negative impression of the individuals. Among those familiar with them, all have net favourable impressions although feelings towards Mark Carney (among those familiar with him) are more positive (+34) than they are for Joly (+22), Leblanc (+22), Anand (+17), Freeland (+16), or Clark (+4).
When we ask whether the respondent would consider voting Liberal if the individual was party leader and Prime Minister, all the candidates had about similar sized accessible voter pools (ranging from 50% to 55%. Carney had the largest (55%) while Clark had the smallest (50%).
We also wanted to understand perceptions about whether each individual is perceived to be similar or different to Justin Trudeau. Again, focusing on those familiar with each individual, Carney and Clark are more likely to be considered different than Trudeau compared with the others. That being said, a majority of those familiar with each (except for Christy Clark) believed they were more similar than different than Trudeau.
Finally, when we ask Canadians which of the individuals we listed they would prefer to see as the next Liberal leader, 47% were unsure while 17% select Chrystia Freeland and 13% select Mark Carney. The others are all well back in single digits.
Among current Liberal supporters, Freeland leads Carney by 6 with 1 in 4 current Liberals unsure.
Regionally, Clark does best in Western Canada tied with Freeland and Carney, while Joly does better in Quebec. In Atlantic Canada, Freeland is ahead by 11 over Carney with Leblanc just behind him.
We also asked people their preferred timing for an election. 42% want an election soon after a new Liberal leader is chosen while 32% want to wait until the scheduled election date in October. 18% say it doesn’t matter while 8% don’t know. Not surprisingly, Conservatives are the most likely to want an election ASAP. NDP supporters are more likely to prefer and wait until October.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement hasn’t transformed or reset the political opinion environment. In fact, the Liberal Party is in a worse place today than soon after Chrystia Freeland’s resignation.
But the results of this survey do offer some hope for Liberals. The party’s accessible voter pool is up slightly and more Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction. All of the potential leadership candidates we tested have larger accessible voter pools than the party itself, but most of them are largely unknown to the vast majority of Canadians.
The boost some hoped would materialize after Trudeau quit hasn’t yet, if it will at all, materialize. While awareness of his departure is almost universal (95%), the Liberal Party’s standing in public opinion remains at a historic low. The Conservatives have a 27-point lead (47% to 20%), Mr. Trudeau’s negatives are up, and only 12% of Canadians believe the Liberals deserve another term in office—even without Trudeau in the picture.
The question is whether this is the rock bottom for the Liberals, or if there’s still room to slide. Trudeau’s exist is universally known but the conversation and the search for a replacement has just begun.
The public opinion dynamics of the leadership race that follows Trudeau’s exit is nuanced . Chrystia Freeland remains the most recognizable potential successor and boasts a net positive impression, but right now, Mark Carney shows the greatest capacity to grow the Liberal vote if he takes over.
Still, the party’s real challenge is convincing a frustrated and fatigued public that a change at the top truly represents a new direction. For now, the data suggests Liberal fortunes remain at their weakest point since 2015—and whether they bounce back will depend on how effectively they can leverage Trudeau’s exit and unite around a successor who stands apart from his leadership style and offers people hope that things will get better.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,500 Canadian adults from January 6 to 7 (starting at 5pm ET), 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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