Abacus Data Poll: Post-Freeland resignation, Trudeau’s net favourability drops to -43 as only 19% want him to stay on as Prime Minister.
December 17, 2024
Following the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday, we launched a new survey at 5pm ET and completed the survey this morning at 8:30am ET to gauge instant public reaction.
The survey interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,186 Canadian adults in both official languages.
Yesterday, we also completed our usual bi-weekly Canadian politics tracker so we have a clear baseline to compare the initial impact of Freeland’s resignation on public opinion.
Vote Intention: Conservatives open up their biggest lead yet – 25 points.
If an election were held today, 45% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 20% would vote forLiberal, and 18% for the NDP. The BQ has 39% of the vote in Quebec. All of the movement from the last survey is within the margin of error but this represents the largest Conservative lead in our tracking history and the lowest Liberal vote share since 2015.
Among those most certain to vote (think likely voters), the Conservative lead grows to 29 points.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 18 in BC, 41 in Alberta, 34 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 17 in Ontario, and by 31 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 12 with the Liberals now clearly in third place.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger Canadians continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 41% of women.
We have also seen a continued decline in the overall mood of the country. Today, only 19% of Canadians feel the country is headed in the right direction, a 3-point drop after Freeland’s resignation and the lowest we have measured since the beginning of 2023.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 22% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 3) while disapproval is steady at 62% (up 1).
The desire for change remains broad and deep. 56% of Canadians want a change in government and believe there’s a good alternative compared (up 2) with only 11% who think Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected – the lowest we have ever tracked that.
Today, 20% (down 3) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 63% (up 2) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, resulting in a net score of -43.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but the positive trend in his favourables has stopped. Today 31% have a positive impression of the NDP leader compared with 39% with a negative view for a net score of -8.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 40% have a positive view while 40% have a negative view for a net score of 0.
Did the Freeland Resignation Breakthrough?
As of this morning, 81% of Canadians say they heard about Chrystia Freeland’s resignation and 42% say they are following the story fairly or very closely. Conservative supporters were following it more closely than Liberal or NDP supporters.
Among those following the story closely, vote intention is 49% Conservative, 22% Liberal and 13% NDP.
Should the Prime Minister Stay on or Resign?
Only 1 in 5 Canadians believe the Prime Minister should stay on while 67% think he should resign. Another 14% are unsure. Just over half of Liberal supporters think he should stay on while 90% of Conservative supporters and 60% of NDP supporters think he should resign.
Do Canadians Want an Election?
58% of Canadians think there should be an election now while 23% don’t want one. 4% don’t care either way and another 15% don’t know.
83% of Conservative supporters want an election now as do about half of NDP supporters. Liberal supporters are split – 35% want one now while 45% don’t.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Yesterday’s bombshell resignation broke through. Within 24 hours, 8 in 10 Canadians said they were aware of Chrystia Freeland’s resignation. The initial impact of her resignation has further harmed the Prime Minister’s reputation and the political position of his government. Across the board, our trackers have hit new lows. The Prime Minister’s personal numbers, the government’s approval rating, those thinking the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, and even the mood of the country are all lower today than they were before the news of Freeland’s resignation broke.
The question is whether this is the bottom or whether things can get worse. Given that 1 in 5 Canadians are still unaware of yesterday’s political events and another sizeable group hasn’t followed it closely, the damage could run deeper as more and more people talk about politics over the holiday season.
It’s clear from this data that Chrystia Freeland delivered a body blow on Prime Minister Trudeau and the government finds itself in the weakest position its been in public opinion since it was elected in 2015.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,186 Canadian adults from December 16 to 17, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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