Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 21 despite negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre rising


From October 3 to 10, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,900 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers along with a test of a recent advertisement Conservative Party advertisement.

Negative Impressions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Increase by 5 points

The most notable change in opinions over the past month has been how Canadians feel about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Today, 39% have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre while 40% have a negative view. While positive impressions are static, those holding a negative impression have increased by 5-points over the past month from 35% to 40%. For the first time since last October, Mr. Poilievre’s net favourability score is negative, barely underwater at -1.

The rise in negative impressions of Mr. Poilievre are not concentrated to a single demographic or regional group. His negatives are up 7 in BC, 6 in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Negatives are up 5 among men and 4 among women while we see a rise in negatives between 3 and 7 points across age groups.

What is clear is that his negatives have increased almost entirely among people who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021. There’s been a 6-point increase among past Liberal voters, 7-point increase among past NDP voters, and a 16-point increase among past BQ supporters.

Among those who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021 but say they are open to voting Conservative today, Mr. Poilievre’s negatives are up 3.

Despite this rise in negative impressions, more people have a positive view of Mr. Poilievre than any of the other party leaders – Poilievre 39%, Singh 30%, Trudeau 23%.

Negative Impressions of Jagmeet Singh are also rising reaching an all-time high.

At the same time, we also continue to see a rise in negative feelings towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Today 30% have a positive view while 41% have a negative view for a net score of -11, the worst score we’ve measured for Mr. Singh since we’ve been tracking public views of the NDP leader.

There has also been a shift in views about change and the acceptability of alternatives

We have also seen a shift in views about the desire for a change in government and the acceptability of alternatives.

Today, 51% of Canadians believe it’s time for a change in government and think there is a good alternative available. That’s down 5-points over the past month and a low since March. At the same time, those who want change but don’t feel there’s a good alternative is up 5 to 34%, a reaching a high not seen since May.

What hasn’t changed is the proportion of Canadians who believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Only 15% of Canadians hold that view, largely unchanged from last month and still much lower than the 20% who felt that way back in August 2023.

Despite these shifts, vote intention has not changed much at all: Conservatives lead by 21 over the Liberals.

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. The Liberal vote share is up 1 while the NDP and the Conservatives are unchanged from the end of last year.

15% of Canadians are uncommitted at this point, the same proportion as we measured last month.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 18 in BC, by 41 points in Alberta, 34 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 22 points in Ontario, and by 12 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 12 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for second at 24%.

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Due to a larger sample in Ontario this wave (n=999) we can report subregions in the province. The Conservatives lead by 21 in Toronto, by 29 in the GTHA, and by 18 in Southwestern Ontario. The Conservatives are also ahead in Eastern Ontario, leading the Liberals by 23.

Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 22% while the Conservatives are well ahead with 49%.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.

The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 39% to 46% while the Liberals have more support among those at either end of the age spectrum – 26% among 18 to 30 year olds and 24% among those aged 60+

It’s worth noting that 50% of BQ supporters are aged 60 and over – explaining its push to have Old Age Security payments increased for those aged 65 to 74.

For the last five waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 38% of women. Liberal support is slightly higher among women (25%) than it is among men (20%).

The Conservative Party’s lead grows to 22-points if you look at the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election. The Conservatives would get 45% compared with 23% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP respectively.

The small improvement in the overall mood of the country has reverted back to the level we’ve seen for almost the entirety of 2024. 25% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction. Only 14% feel the same way about how things are going globally (down 4).

The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged.

Today, 26% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is unchanged at 59%.

The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive. Despiite a rise in negatives towards Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh, Prime Minister Trudeau’s image has not shifted in the past month.

Today, 23% (+1) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 59% (down 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -36.

 

Which party do Canadians think will win the next election and so Canadians want an election now?

Half of Canadians (50%) believe that the Conservative Party is likely to win the next federal election, up 3 from last month. 17% think the Liberals are going to win (unchanged) while 9% think the NDP is going to win (down 2). 1 in 4 Canadians remain unsure about the outcome of the next election.

How do Canadians React to the new Conservative Party Ad – “Mountain”?

Every now and then we liked to show Canadians content that political parties are putting out to gauge reaction to it. We do this all the time for our clients who are developing advertisements or content and it helps us understand whether the story and message the party is putting out through paid ads is appealing.

We showed this ad – in both languages – to our respondents.

Overall, the ad was well received by most Canadians. 52% said the ad made them feel more positive about Pierre Poilievre while 14% said it made them feel less positive for a net impact of +38. 34% said it had no impact.

Among accessible Conservatives (those open to voting Conservative but right now are voting for another party or are undecided), the net effect is +66. Among those who say their second choice is the Conservative Party but right now they are supporting another party, the net impact was even more positive at +78.

Canadians under 45 years of age were also more responsive to the ad. 30% said their impression of Pierre Poilievre was much more positive and the net impact was +49 among this group.

Among francophone Quebecers, the net impact was +33 with 21% saying it left them feeling much more positive about Poilievre.

Based on this, it’s likely that if this ad is seen widely, it will likely improve impressions of Poilievre. But we dug a bit deeper to understand why it appealed to people.

We followed up with people who said the ad made them feel more positive about Mr. Poilievre.

Among accessible Conservatives who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021 (a key group for the party today – 47% of which would vote Conservative now), here’s a summary of their feedback.

Many expressed hope that Pierre Poilievre would improve Canada, make it a better place to live, and restore the country’s lost glory. Themes included fixing issues like housing, crime, and the economy. Words like “hope,” “positive,” “better future,” and “change” were common.

A significant portion found Pierre Poilievre relatable, down-to-earth, and in touch with the average Canadian. Many felt he understood their struggles and expressed views that aligned with their own, often praising his “common sense.”

Several people appreciated that Poilievre touched on relevant issues such as housing, crime, taxes, unemployment, and the economy. They felt these were the real problems that needed addressing.

Some viewers, while positive about the message, expressed doubt about whether Poilievre would follow through on his promises. There was a cautious optimism, with some skepticism about political promises being fulfilled.

Others were moved by Poilievre’s personal story, including his upbringing and the struggles he overcame. They saw this as evidence that he could relate to the challenges of average Canadians.

Finally, a notable group emphasized the patriotic message of the ad, appreciating that Poilievre spoke about Canada’s identity, family values, and returning to a Canada that was once strong. They felt a connection to his message of unification and national pride.

The “Mountain” ad appears to convey a message of hope, relatability, and patriotism to currently accessible Conservative voters who didn’t support the party in 2021, resonating most with their desire for positive change in Canada.

Poilievre’s focus on addressing key issues like housing, the economy, and crime struck a chord, while his perceived down-to-earth demeanor and “common sense” approach made him relatable. Many saw him as genuine and trustworthy, though some remained cautiously optimistic or skeptical about whether his promises would be fulfilled. Overall, the ad effectively tapped into a sense of nostalgia for a better Canada, offering a unifying message that aligned with voters’ concerns about the country’s direction.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “In the past month, perceptions of both Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh have become more negative, while views of Prime Minister Trudeau remain unchanged. We could be entering a new period where all three main party leaders become and are deeply unpopular with those who are not voting for them. This has long been the case for Mr. Trudeau, but we’re now seeing it with Mr. Singh and Mr. Poilievre as well.

This has three key implications. First, despite Mr. Poilievre being more popular than the other two leaders, he remains vulnerable to reputational damage. Many Canadians still don’t know him well, which could make him susceptible to negative perceptions, either from his actions or attacks from opponents.

But consider this: our survey shows that 1 in 5 Canadians don’t know Mr. Singh or Mr. Poilievre well, and only a third feel they know them very well. A year ago, 38% of Canadians said they didn’t know Mr. Poilievre at all or had only heard of him, but that number has now dropped to 22%. Canadians have a better sense of who he is and what he stands for. Although his negative ratings have increased, Conservative support hasn’t declined, suggesting those uncomfortable with him aren’t Conservative voters, and the party’s coalition remains solid.

Second, while Mr. Poilievre’s negatives are rising, the overall desire for change remains high, even more now think there isn’t an alternative they are comfortable with. Eighty-five percent of Canadians want a change in government, and only 15% believe Trudeau and the Liberals deserve re-election. As long as Mr. Trudeau is viewed more negatively—and more intensely disliked—than Mr. Poilievre, any increase in Mr. Poilievre’s negatives won’t drastically alter the political landscape.

Finally, all this suggests that a leadership change in the Liberal Party could shift the current dynamic. There’s a strong link between how people feel about Mr. Trudeau and their likelihood of voting Liberal. As I’ve argued before, if Mr. Trudeau intends to run again, the only way for the Liberals to become more competitive is to improve his image. Without changing how people feel about Mr. Trudeau, the Liberals can’t reduce their polling deficit.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from October 3 to 10, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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