Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 22 as surrounding impressions hold steady.
October 27, 2024
From October 17 to 22, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers. On Tuesday, we released data on how Canadians feel about Justin Trudeau’s future as Prime Minister and Liberal Leader.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 22 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. Any changes are clearly within the margin of error of the survey.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 23 in BC, by 49 points in Alberta, 25 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 18 points in Ontario, and by 24 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 13 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied.
Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied well back of the Conservatives who have almost half of the vote share.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.
The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 42% to 46% while the Liberals have slightly more support among those aged 60+ than those under 60.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women. Liberal support is 5-points higher among women than it is among men while the NDP vote share is similar across both groups.
For the first time in our survey, we don’t find that the Conservatives gain a turnout boost when we factor in only those who are certain to vote. The Conservative lead is 21-points among those most motivated to vote.
The mood of the country has not changed. 25% feel the country is headed in the right direction while 63% feel it’s off on the wrong track.
The federal government’s approval rating has deteriorated slightly.
Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 2) while disapproval is down two points to 61%.
The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive.
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 60% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -37.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.
Over the previous three waves of research we noted an increase in those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre. This week, his negatives are down slightly (-2) while his positives are up 1. Mr. Poilievre’s net score is back into positive terrority at +4.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election continues to grow.
Just over half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 9-points. In contrast, 17% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 23% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment appears to be increasingly locked in. Despite improving economic news, perceptions about the direction of the country are not improving. The government’s approval rating and impressions of the Prime Minister remains as bad as they have ever been.
Last wave, we highlighted an increase in negative impressions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. This week, that trend may have stopped as Mr. Poilievre’s net score is back in positive territory. This is expected given the amount of advertising the Conservatives are doing while their opponents spend almost nothing countering it. IN this environment, we shouldn’t expect Mr. Poilievre’s impression to change as the party reinforces positive messages while continuing to contrast with Mr. Trudeau, who most Canadians dislike.
Perhaps most concerning for the Liberals and NDP is the growing belief that the Conservatives are going to win the next election. 52% of Canadians now believe that outcome is likely to happen, up 9-points since the beginning of the year.
Despite growing belief that Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives are going to win, there hasn’t been an increase in concern or a shift in vote intentions. This suggests that right now, the prospect of a Conservative victory is not turning people away from the Conservatives.
As I’ve argued before, the Liberals won’t be able to get back into a competitive position with Mr. Trudeau as leader unless they change the way Canadians feel about him – even if views of Mr. Poilievre become more negative. The relationship between impressions of the Prime Minister and the likelihood of voting Liberal are too strong. We see no evidence that views of Mr. Trudeau have changed at all over the past year, despite everything the government has tried to do to change them.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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