Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 19 as other metrics hold steady.
November 10, 2024
From October 31 to November 5, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 19 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is down 3 while the NDP and PPC vote shares are up 2 each respectively.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 36 in Alberta, 32 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and by 18 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12 with the Conservatives a further two points back.
Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied well back of the Conservatives who have almost half of the vote share.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger Canadians has dropped.
The Conservatives lead by a wide margin among Canadians aged 45 and older, and have a sizeable lead among the younger cohorts. The NDP vote share is up in our sample among those aged 30 to 44.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women – both down 3 since last wave.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 44% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
The mood of the country has improved slightly with 27% feeling the country is headed in the right direction while 60% feel it’s off on the wrong track. We will monitor this to see if it’s the start of a new trend of increasing optimism.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is up one (62%).
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 38% have a positive view (down 3) while 38% have a negative view (up 1) for a net score of 0.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election holds.
Halfof Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 7-points. In contrast, 18% think the Liberals will win while 10% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment prior to Donald Trump’s election on Tuesday was very similar to what it has been for over a year now. We see no shift in perceptions as Canadians continue to seek political change and the Conservatives continue to benefit the most from this holding onto a clear lead nationally, across most demographics, and across almost all regions of the country.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 31 to November 5, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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