Abacus Data Poll: No “Trump Bump” for Liberals as they are now tied with NDP for second. Conservatives lead by 22.
November 21, 2024
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only but all of the interviews we done following the U.S. Presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory. It’s our first survey after the U.S. election.
Vote Intention: No Trump Bump. Conservatives ahead by 22. Liberals and NDP tied.
For the first time in our tracking since the Liberals were elected in 2015, we have the Liberals and NDP numerically tied for second place.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals and the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is up 2, the NDP is up 1 while the Liberals are down 1 since earlier this month.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 9 in BC, 38 in Alberta, 31 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 23-points in Ontario, and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 13 with the Liberals two points further back.
Outside of Quebec, the NDP is slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 48% voting Conservative.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
Of note, among millennials, only 15% say they will vote Liberal – the lowest we have measured Liberal support among that generation.
45% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 45% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
The mood of the country has deteriorated slightly with only 24% thinking the country’s headed in the right direction. We have seen an increase in Canadians who think the United States is headed in the right direction, up 7 to 22% while those who think the world is off on the wrong track is up 6 to 72%.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (unchanged) while disapproval is down one to 61%.
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (unchanged) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but his positives are trending upward from 29% in September to 32% today. His net favourability score is -7.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 40% have a positive view (up 2) while 37% have a negative view (down 1) for a net score of +3. Trump’s election has had no impact on views towards Pierre Poilievre.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election grows.
More than half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since January, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 11-points. In contrast, 16% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “We don’t see any “Trump Bump” for the Liberals following Donald Trump election victory. Almost all of the key metrics are unchanged from our survey before the election.
But for the first time in our tracking since the 2015 election, we have the NDP and Liberals tied nationally at 21% for second place. And today, more Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election.
Impressions of neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre have changed. We will have a deep dive on what Canadians think about who is best to deal with Trump and what approach they think the federal government should take later this week or Monday.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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