Abacus Data Poll: No “GST Tax Holiday” or “Trump” Bump as Conservatives hold 23-point lead over the Liberals.
December 8, 2024
From November 29 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,720 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers along with an update of our top issue tracker.
Vote Intention: Still No Trump Bump or a “GST Holiday” Bump. Conservatives ahead by 23.
If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals, and 21% for the NDP. The BQ has 32% of the vote in Quebec. All of the movement from the last survey is within the margin of error.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 42 in Alberta, 21 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 24 in Ontario, and by 19 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 5 with the Liberals trailing 4 points behind them in third.
Outside of Quebec, the NDP continues to be slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 49% voting Conservative.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 41% of women.
We have also seen a decline in the overall mood of the country. Today, only 22% of Canadians feel the country is headed in the right direction, a 5-point drop from early November and the lowest we have measured since the beginning of 2023. Also of note, today, more Canadians think the United States is headed in the right direction (23%) than feel the same about their own country (22%) – the first time we have ever seen those two measures cross.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 1) while disapproval is steady at 61%.
The desire for change remains broad and deep. 53% of Canadians want a change in government and believe there’s a good alternative compared with 14% who think Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (unchanged) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but the positive trend in his favourables has stopped. Today 31% have a positive impression of the NDP leader compared with 39% with a negative view for a net score of -8.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 41% have a positive view (up 1) while 36% have a negative view (down 1) for a net score of +5. Trump’s election has had no impact on views towards Pierre Poilievre.
We are also tracking Canadian impressions of Donald Trump. And since the tariff announcement last week, positive impressions of Trump have increased. Those with a negative impression are down 7 from two weeks ago while those with a positive view are up 6 to 26%, the highest we have measured since we started tracking in September.
One of the questions we are often asked is whether there is risk for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in appearing too close to Donald Trump. The chart below shows just how much risk there is. Despite being slightly more popular than Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump is still deeply unpopular in Canada. And among those with a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre (41% of Canadians), about half have a positive impression of Trump while 1 in 3 have a negative impression. A big part of the new Poilievre universe does not like the incoming American President.
Top Issues
For the first time in our issue tracking, we included Donald Trump and his administration as a potential issue for Canadians to rate as one of their top 3. When we include him in the mix, 1 in 5 Canadians rate him and his administration as a top issue.
The cost of living, healthcare, and housing are still the top three most cited issues followed by the economy in fourth and immigration in fifth. 1 in 3 Canadians now rate immigration as one of their top issues, a 5-point increase from June.
Onlu 18% of Canadians rate climate change and the environment as a top issue, down 5 points since June.
Looking at the issue set by age, we find that the cost of living cross all agre groups while healthcare is more likely to be salient for those aged 60 and over and housing is more of an issue for those under 30. Canadians under 30 are most likely to rate immigration as a top issue while those over 60 are more concerned about Trump and his new administration. Also worth noting that Canadians over 60 are more likely to rate climate change as a top issue than any other age cohort.
Here’s the breakdown by region/province:
And here’s the breakdown by current federal party support. Note, the wide partisan divides on healthcare, immigration, climate, crime, and Donald Trump.
Now, when we follow up with those who select an issue in their top three and ask which party they think is best able to handle that issue, the results underscore how challenging an environment this is for any party except for the Conservatives.
On the six most salient issues at the moment, the Conservatives either lead or are competitive with another party. They lead by 24 on affordability, by 2 on healthcare, by 12 on housing, and by 36 on the economy. They are 49 points ahead on immigration, and are within 5 points of the Liberals among those who say Trump and his administration is one of the top issues facing the country. They also lead by 49 on crime and public safety.
If voters usually vote for the party they think is best able to handle the issue they care most about, then the Conservatives are in as solid a position to win the next election as you can imagine.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Since early November, we’ve experienced several big political events. Trump’s election victory, the federal government’s GST tax holiday announcement, and Trump’s 25% tariff social media post. And it appears none of those events have materially changed public opinion.
The Liberals continue to trail the Conservatives by over 20 points. We’ve seen no change in how people feel about the Prime Minister or the performance of the government. The mood of the country has soured a bit – to the lowest level we have ever measured – and now more Canadians believe the United States is headed in the right direction (23%) than do think that about Canada (22%).
So far, the impact of Trump on Canadian political opinion has been limited. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t present both opportunities and threats for all leaders and parties. As we showed in this poll, Pierre Poilievre likely has the most risk around Trump as his coalition has very different views of the incoming U.S. President.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,720 Canadian adults from November 29 to December 4, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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