Between Scarcity and Stability: A Year-End Reflection on Canadian Public Opinion and the Road to 2025
December 22, 2024
As we close the book on 2024, it’s been a year marked by uncertainty, shifting priorities, and evolving political loyalties across Canada. Over the past twelve months, our firm has consistently found Canadians grappling with economic anxieties, recalibrating their political preferences, and rethinking what good governance looks like in an era increasingly defined by unpredictability and permacrisis. While opinion polls offer only snapshots in time, the picture that emerges from our year’s worth of research is one of a public becoming more cautious, more critical, and—despite it all—still hopeful that better days lie ahead.
For much of the year, the economy has been top-of-mind. Even as the immediate shockwaves of the pandemic receded, new waves of instability rushed in. Inflation, which seemed at times like it might ease off, became stuck in the public consciousness, inflicting people with a disease I termed “inflationitis”.
It’s not just the price of groceries or housing that worries Canadians—it’s the broader fear that something fundamental has shifted in our economic landscape. Many sense that the old assumption—that things naturally get easier and more affordable over time—no longer holds. As a result, a scarcity mindset has begun to creep into public opinion.
Throughout 2024, our surveys captured a growing belief among Canadians that prosperity can’t be taken for granted. Rising unemployment late in the year added to these fears. While jobless rates haven’t skyrocketed, the trend line has been worrying enough to feed narratives of diminished opportunity. Even those who remain securely employed have grown more skeptical that stable, well-paying work will always be there for them or for their children. This sense of precarity has clearly influenced how people think about politics and policy.
In the midst of these swirling anxieties, the Canadian healthcare system is also edging toward what I recently wrote about being a “double demographic whammy.” On one side, an aging population is driving up demand for health and long-term care; on the other, a shrinking supply of family physicians and other healthcare professionals threatens to limit access at the exact moment it’s needed most. Recent Abacus Data surveys show healthcare ranking near the top of Canadians’ concerns—on par with housing and affordability—and dissatisfaction is running high. Close to four-in-ten rate their provincial systems as “poor,” a judgment especially severe in regions like Atlantic Canada and Quebec. This demographic collision will likely make healthcare scarcity a defining political issue for older Canadians over the next five to ten years, much as housing affordability has shaped the political priorities of younger voters. It’s not just another policy challenge: it’s fast becoming a litmus test for government competence and a rallying point for advocacy, investment, and the urgent reimagining of how care is delivered to an aging nation.
With one of our media partners – The Toronto Star – we are the only polling firm to regularly track public opinion as it relates to Ontario provincial politics. When we asked Ontarians about their provincial choices, many expressed satisfaction—or at least resigned comfort—with the status quo. Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs consistently lead by wide margins, buoyed by a feeling that they at least offered some stability amid chaotic times. But this lead hasn’t been a ringing endorsement of any government’s performance so much as a reflection of voters’ uncertainty about whether other parties could do any better.
In addition, regional disparities remain front and centre. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, where energy issues and the cost of living have always been central, skepticism toward federal policies aimed at curbing emissions and reshaping the economy have grown more intense. Meanwhile, in Atlantic Canada, affordability and access to housing have stirred debates about population growth, immigration, and social support systems.
In Quebec, cultural and linguistic considerations overlay economic concerns, generating a more complex web of priorities that sometimes diverges sharply from the national conversation. Throughout these regions, public opinion has repeatedly shown a Canada divided by differing social and economic realities, yet united by a pervasive feeling of vulnerability.
Also looming large in Canadians’ imaginations is the external environment. The re-election (or return) of Donald Trump to the White House—while hypothetical at the start of the year—became a reality after the U.S. election in November. Canadians have always paid attention to American politics, but this time the sentiment is warier. Trump’s renewed presence south of the border introduces an element of unpredictability into Canada’s largest trading relationship and further rattles the assumption that international cooperation will be easy or enduring. Our polling has shown that Canadians worry about what a more protectionist, abrasive U.S. stance means for their jobs, their security, and the global order they’ve long taken for granted.
In this landscape, Canadians have shown signs of retreating into pragmatism. There’s a growing inclination to say, “Let’s deal with what we have and hope our leaders keep the ship steady.” But the appetite for real solutions to inflation and affordability challenges is mounting. Across age groups—though particularly among younger Canadians who feel shut out of the housing market and stable career paths—there’s a desire for political leaders to move beyond Band-Aid measures and confront the structural issues at play. At the same time, older Canadians often support incremental changes, trusting that the tried-and-true approach might eventually steer the country back to calmer waters.
At the same time, I remain fascinated by our increasingly fragmented information ecosystem and the deep generational divides it creates in how we learn, communicate, and form opinions. Data from our recent surveys show that 6 in 10 Canadians under 30 check TikTok every day, while about 1 in 20 of those over 60 do the same. Older Canadians might still lean on traditional news broadcasts and mainstream news organization, while younger audiences turn to fast-moving, algorithmically curated feeds that deliver content at breakneck speed, often beyond the reach of legacy outlets. This divergence complicates how we engage, communicate, and persuade people across generational lines. It also raises difficult questions about whether we can maintain any shared narrative or find enough common ground to forge a cohesive national, multi-generational mission. When our information diet varies so drastically by age, the challenge is not merely about messaging; it’s about rebuilding a civic culture of shared stories, shared facts, and mutual understanding. I’m left wondering – are we even living in the same perceived realities anymore?
As we approach 2025, we’re entering a period when these long-simmering concerns could boil over into electoral politics. We know a federal election is on the horizon—if not officially scheduled, then certainly looming large in the minds of party strategists. We also know that Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador are expected to head to the polls. The crucial question as we prepare for these elections is whether any party can break through the widespread anxiety and offer Canadians a convincing roadmap that addresses their immediate pocketbook concerns while speaking to their deeper fears about the future.
In 2025, expect affordability to remain the dominant theme but job security and healthcare scarcity to rise in importance. As our population growth stalls due to changes in immigration policy, the economic impact – on growth, consumer spending, and tax revenues will be stark.
If parties continue to bicker over small policy differences rather than present bold strategies for income security, housing, and job growth, the public’s faith in politicians will remain strained. Parties that can show empathy for the scarcity mindset—without being defeatist—may stand out. Expect more nuanced economic messaging, acknowledging that government alone can’t solve all problems, but that careful planning and innovative thinking can produce results that markets left to themselves may not. Canadians will be looking not just for ideological alignment, but for competence and stability.
As unemployment hovers at uncomfortable levels, leaders who promise concrete job creation plans—especially in emerging sectors like infrastructure, healthcare, clean technology, and manufacturing—might find a receptive audience. Meanwhile, the specter of Trump’s White House should prompt federal parties to clarify how they’ll protect Canadian interests in uncertain times. Those who can explain how Canada will maintain its independence and prosperity, despite challenges from its largest trading partner, will gain credibility.
Lastly, watch for evolving voter alignments. Youth, especially young men, seem to be flirting with conservative political leaders for the first time in over a decade and a half in Canada, but could also lean toward pragmatists if they see their economic future slipping away. Longtime partisans might be more willing to consider crossing partisan lines if they feel a candidate or party can deliver tangible results. The table is set for a fascinating electoral cycle where change and policy disruption is likely to be the result.
In short, while 2024’s end finds Canadians uneasy, wary, and at times jaded, it also reveals a political marketplace ripe for boldness and reassurance. As we step into 2025, the opportunity is there for leaders – political, business, community, and non-profit – to channel these complex emotions into policies, goals, missions, and proposals that tackle the cost of living, stabilize employment, and chart a clear path through a complicated global environment—one shaped both by Canada’s own internal debates and by the reverberations from beyond its borders.
Team Abacus Data will be watching closely, asking thousands of Canadians hundreds of questions every week to keep you, our wonderful community, engaged, informed, and ready to fill the unmet needs of your audiences.
Happy Holidays and Happy New Year from the entire Abacus Data team
David Coletto
Founder, Chair, & CEO
Abacus Data
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