Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as Carney government approval reaches multi-year high
May 25, 2025
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from May 15 to 21, 2025 and interviewed 2,273 Canadian adults. The survey was conducted entirely after the swearing in of the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Just before King Charles is set to deliver the new government’s Speech from the Throne, a new Abacus Data poll finds the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied despite new high points for the Carney government’s approval rating and personal impressions towards the Prime Minister.
Vote Intention: Liberals and Conservatives are Statistically Tied
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals, 40% for the Conservatives, 8% for the NDP, and 7% for the Bloc Quebecois. Compared to the election results, the Liberals are down 3, the Conservatives down 1 and the NDP is up 2.
Regionally, the Liberals are slightly ahead in British Columbia (41% to 39%), ahead by 6 in Ontario, 7 in Quebec, and by 14 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead by 35 in Alberta and are ahead by 26 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead by 9 among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and Conservatives are basically tied among 30 to 44 year olds, the Conservatives lead by 4 among 45 to 59 year olds while the Liberals are ahead by 11 among those aged 60 and over.
There is a slight gender gap. The Liberals lead by 4 among women while the Conservatives are ahead marginally by 2 among men.
Education remains a big predictor of party support. The Conservatives lead among those with high school or college education while the Liberals are well ahead among those with a university degree.
Direction of the Country
When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, 35% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 46% think the country is on the wrong track. These are the most positive results on this question since before the pandemic.
Top Issues
When asked to name the three most important issues facing Canada today, the rising cost of living dominates, cited by 61% of respondents. Donald Trump and his administration is second at 43% followed by the economy and housing at 36% respectively and healthcare at 33% rounding out the top 5. 25% cite immigration as a top issue while job security and crime, and climate change are all bunched at 14% to 15%.
When we ask those who rank an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to deal with the issue, the Conservatives lead by 11 among those who feel the cost of living is a top issue while the Liberals lead by almost 50 among those who put Donald Trump and his administration in their top 3. The Conservatives lead among those who rate economy, housing, and immigration in their top issues while the Liberals are ahead among those who select healthcare and climate change as a top issue.
Federal Government Approval
Approval of Mark Carney’s government has reached a new high with 50% approving and 24% disapproving. This is the best approval rating for the federal government since the COVID-19 pandemic and similar to the post-election approval numbers of the Trudeau government following its first election victory in 2015.
Party Leader Impressions
Much of the goodwill directed towards the federal government can be attributed to how Canadians feel about the Prime Minister himself. Almost half of Canadians have a positive view of Mark Carney compared with 29% who have a negative impression. His net score of +20 is high in a relative sense.
Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. 40% of Canadians have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 42% have a negative impression. His negatives are down slightly from the highs around 46% we measured during the election campaign.
Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. 75% have a negative opinion of him, while 13% view him positively.
Accessible Voter Pools
Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 55% of Canadians are open to voting Liberal, 51% Conservative and 33% NDP.
When asked their general desire for change, 41% of Canadians say it’s time for a change in government and feel there is a good alternative compared with 30% who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. This is the highest re-elect number for the Liberals since we started tracking this back in summer 2023.
Carney’s Government vs. Trudeau Government
One important predictor of vote choice during the election was the perception of how similar or different Carney’s government is or would be compared with Trudeau’s government.
In this survey we asked respondents, based on what they have seen so far from Mark Carney and his government, whether it is similar or different to Trudeau’s government. Overall, 50% feel it is similar while 36% feel it is different. Among those who currently support the Liberals, 61% think it’s different while 28% think it’s similar. Conservatives feel almost the complete opposite.
We followed up that question by asking whether being different or similar to the Trudeau gov’t was a good or bad thing, among those who say it’s different, most overwhelmingly say it’s a good thing. This reinforces the importance for the new government to not be seen as similar to Trudeau. Carney’s ability to differentiate from Trudeau helped him win the election.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Our latest Abacus Data poll, conducted just ahead of King Charles’s Throne Speech, highlights the early dynamics facing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. While Carney enjoys a multi-year high in government approval (50%) and strong personal favourability, the Liberals (41%) and Conservatives (40%) remain statistically tied, underscoring that despite the government’s post-election honeymoon, partisan divisions persist.
Carney’s high personal approval (+20 net positive) contrasts sharply with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s persistently polarized impressions (40% positive, 42% negative). The Prime Minister’s popularity appears driven by public perceptions that he is successfully distinguishing his government from Justin Trudeau’s legacy—a factor crucial to his election victory and ongoing support.
However, underlying vulnerabilities remain. Concerns about the cost of living dominate public priorities (61%), with Conservatives holding a significant advantage on this issue. Yet, the Liberals command a commanding lead among Canadians worried about Donald Trump and his administration—an unusual cross-border influence solidifying as a central partisan divide.
Generational and educational divides also remain potent predictors of voter preference, with the Liberals reliant on university-educated and older voters, while younger Canadians (18-29) increasingly lean Conservative.
While Mark Carney’s personal and governmental approval suggests momentum, significant headwinds remain, notably around economic anxieties. Successfully navigating these and continuing to differentiate from the Trudeau government will likely determine whether the Liberals can maintain the public’s confidence and hold the new Liberal coalition together.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,273 Canadian adults from May 15 to 21, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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