Abacus Data Poll: Optimism about the Direction of the Country Reaches Three Year High
June 8, 2025
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from June 2 to 5, 2025 and interviewed 2,585 Canadian adults.
The survey finds that optimism in the direction of the country has reached a three-year high while positive impressions of Prime Minister Carney and his government continue to rise.
Direction of the Country
When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, 38% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 43% think the country is on the wrong track. This is a 3-point increase in optimism and is almost at a three-year high. At the same time, optimism about the direction of the world remain low.
Federal Government Approval
Approval of Mark Carney’s government has reached a new high with 53% approving and 23% disapproving. This is the best approval rating for the federal government since the COVID-19 pandemic and similar to the post-election approval numbers of the Trudeau government following its first election victory in 2015.
Regionally, 58% approve in BC, 40% in Alberta, 45% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 56% in Ontario, 52% in Quebec, and 62% in Atlantic Canada.
Of note, 1 in 4 of those who voted Conservative in April’s federal election approve of the federal government’s job performance.
Party Leader Impressions
Much of the goodwill directed towards the federal government continues to be strongly correlated with feelings towards Prime Minister Carney. Today, 51% have a positive impression of Carney compared with 27% who have a negative impression. The net score of +24 is the highest it has been for him.
Carney’s net score is +86 among Liberal voters, +26 among NDP supporters and -39 among Conservative voters. Regionally, Carney’s net score is +36 in BC, -7 in Alberta, +1 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +25 in Ontario, +35 in Quebec and +33 in Atlantic Canada.
Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. 39% of Canadians have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 44% have a negative impression. This is the second wave in a row of rising negatives for Poilievre. His net score today is -7.
Regionally, Poilievre’s net score is -6 in BC, +25 in Alberta, +13 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -3 in Ontario, -25 in Quebec, and -18 in Atlantic Canada.
Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. 75% have a negative opinion of him, while 12% view him positively.
Accessible Voter Pools
Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 57% of Canadians are open to voting Liberal, 53% Conservative and 35% NDP.
When asked their general desire for change, 41% of Canadians say it’s time for a change in government (unchanged from May) and feel there is a good alternative compared with 34% who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. This is the highest re-elect number for the Liberals since we started tracking this back in summer 2023.
Vote Intention: Liberals lead Conservatives by 3
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives, 8% for the NDP, and 6% for the Bloc Quebecois. All the change from the last survey are within the margin of error.
Regionally, the Liberals are slightly ahead in British Columbia (39% to 38%), ahead by 6 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and by 22 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead by 37 in Alberta and are ahead by 23 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Demographically, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied among those under 30, the Conservatives lead by 10 among Millennials (30 to 44), the parties are tied among those aged 45 to 59 while the Liberals have an 18-point lead among those over 60.
Education remains a big predictor of party support. The Conservatives lead among those with high school or college education while the Liberals are well ahead among those with a university degree.
Top Issues
When asked to name the three most important issues facing Canada today, the rising cost of living dominates, cited by 61% of respondents (the same as last month). Donald Trump and his administration is second at 42% (-1) followed by the economy, healthcare, housing, and immigration.
When we ask those who rank an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to deal with the issue, the Conservatives lead by 10 among those who feel the cost of living is a top issue while the Liberals lead by almost 5048among those who put Donald Trump and his administration in their top 3. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied on the economy, housing, while the Liberals lead by 7 on healthcare.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Over a month since the election, Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to earn high marks from Canadians. Our latest survey finds that optimism about the direction of the country has reached its highest level in three years, with 38% now saying things are headed in the right direction—up 3 points from last month. At the same time, approval of the federal government has climbed to 53%, a level not seen since the early days of the Trudeau government. There is no evidence of buyer’s remorse among voters; instead, public confidence in Carney’s leadership is growing steadily.
Carney’s personal brand continues to be a major asset. A majority of Canadians (51%) view him positively, while only 27% hold a negative impression. His +24 net score is the highest we’ve recorded since Trudeau’s in 2015, bolstered by strong impressions in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Even one in four Conservative voters approve of the government’s performance—a sign that the Carney government is making inroads beyond its core base. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s negatives are on the rise again, with his net impression slipping to -7 nationally, and especially poor ratings in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
Electorally, the Liberals now hold a narrow 3-point lead nationally over the Conservatives, buoyed by strong support from older voters and university-educated Canadians. Their accessible voter pool has grown to 57%—higher than at any point in the past two years—and more Canadians than ever say the Liberals deserve re-election. While affordability remains the top issue, Trump continues to weigh heavily on Canadian minds. That issue continues to favour the Liberals, helping explain why the government’s momentum remains on an upward trajectory. For now, Canadians appear ready to give the Carney government the benefit of the doubt—and a chance to deliver.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,585 Canadians from June 2 to 5, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.92%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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