Abacus Data Poll: 52% think the Carney government is off to a good start. 28% disagree.
June 25, 2025
From June 17 to 19, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Note, this survey was almost entirely done after the G7 Summit in Alberta but before the House of Commons passed Bill C-5.
As summer begins, our latest political tracking survey offers a snapshot of a Canadian electorate that appears cautiously steady. The public remains largely supportive of the newly elected federal government, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney and his team the benefit of the doubt. That support has not yet translated into a decisive electoral advantage for the Liberals but neither has it opened the door for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. As expected, public opinion is similar to what it was at the end of the federal election in April.
The mood of the country remains one of modest optimism, at least domestically. This wave finds that 36% of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, a slight dip from last month but still a multi-year high. Views about the world (13%) and the United States (14%) remain strikingly pessimistic.
Approval of the federal government remains strong. Just over half of Canadians (52%) say they approve of the job the Carney-led government is doing, compared to 25% who disapprove. While this is a slight decline from our previous wave, the current approval rating is still historically strong and suggests this post-election “honeymoon period” is far from over.
Leadership Favourability
This stability is also reflected in views of Mark Carney himself. His personal favourability stands at +19, with 48% having a positive impression and 29% holding a negative one. That’s a three-point decline in positives and a two-point increase in negatives from the last survey, but the numbers remain well above where former Prime Minister Trudeau stood for most of his final years in office and in-line with Trudeau’s initial post-election period after the 2015 election.
For Pierre Poilievre, the data is more of a mixed bag. On the one hand, 41% view him positively and 41% negatively, leaving him with a net zero score. That’s significantly stronger than where his predecessors found themselves after an election loss. His accessible voter pool remains large and stable, with 53% of Canadians open to voting Conservative—identical to the size of the Liberal accessible pool. In other words, despite narratives painting him as politically wounded, our data suggests otherwise.
Carney Government: Is it off to a good start?
We also asked Canadians how they feel about the Carney government’s early performance. Over half (52%) say the government is off to a good start, compared to 28% who feel it’s off to a bad start. Majorities in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia share this positive sentiment. Notably, even 1 in 5 Conservative voters agree the new government is off to a good start, as do 90% of Liberal supporters.
Does Carney have a mandate to radically change Canada?
When asked whether the government has a mandate to radically change the country, public opinion is more divided. Just under one-third (30%) believe the federal election result gives Carney a mandate for transformative change, while 32% say it does not. The largest share (37%) are somewhere in the middle. Among Liberal voters, however, nearly half (46%) say Carney has a strong mandate to bring about fundamental change, while only 19% say he doesn’t.
Issues: Cost of living, Trump, the Economy, Healthcare, and Housing
Top issues remain consistent. Cost of living is still the number one issue by a wide margin (61%), followed by Donald Trump and his influence on Canada (39%), the economy (37%), healthcare (34%), and housing (34%). Immigration comes in sixth at 28%. Despite recent wildfires and extreme weather, only 14% of Canadians put climate change in their top three issues—unchanged from earlier this year.
When it comes to issue ownership, the landscape is split. The Conservatives lead by 9 points among those who rank cost of living as a top concern, by 4 points on housing, and by a massive 27-point margin on crime and public safety. They also hold a 7-point lead on the economy. The Liberals, meanwhile, lead by 6 on healthcare and dominate when it comes to managing Canada’s relationship with Donald Trump, with a 45-point lead among those who consider that a top issue. On climate change, the Liberals are narrowly ahead of the Greens by 5 points.
Vote Intention: Liberals ahead by 3
On the ballot question, the numbers remain unchanged from earlier in June. The Liberals continue to hold a narrow three-point lead nationally, with 42% of committed voters choosing them, 39% supporting the Conservatives, and the NDP stuck at 7%. The Bloc Quebecois sits at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.
Regionally, the Liberals lead in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and hold a lead across the Prairies. Demographically, the Liberals are ahead among those over 44, while the Conservatives lead slightly among younger Canadians. Interestingly, the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives among men but have a six-point lead among women. They also maintain a substantial 20-point advantage among university graduates, while the Conservatives perform better among those with high school or college-level education.
Accessible Voter Pools
We also find that the Liberals and Conservatives have equal sized accessible voter pools – the proportion of Canadians open to voting for the parties suggesting both still have a large group of people open to the party. The accessible voter pool for the NDP is at a historic low – at least in the 15 years we have been tracking Canadian public opinion.
Beyond policy, the emotional register of the electorate is worth noting. There is no discernible spike in anxiety or outrage, no significant movement in the desire for change, and little to suggest that Canadians are regretting their decision in April’s election. The number who believe the Liberals deserve re-election is holding steady, and there’s been no erosion in their accessible voter pool.
Put differently: while public expectations remain high for the Carney government, Canadians are still willing to wait and see. The political mood is not euphoric, but it is forgiving.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As the Carney government passes the 100-day mark (since being sworn in on March 15), Canadians continue to express confidence in its direction and leadership. While there’s some softening in approval and favourability, the overall mood remains solidly positive. The government has not squandered its goodwill. In fact, more than half the country still believes it is off to a good start including one in five Conservative Party supporters.
The Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a tight race, with the Liberals benefiting from strong support among older and more educated Canadians. And despite speculation about Poilievre’s vulnerabilities, his support remains intact, with no signs of decline. In fact, we find that the size of the Liberal and Conservative accessible voter pools are the same.
On the issues, cost of living dominates as the central concern, followed closely by worries about Trump and the broader economic climate. This reinforces the Carney government’s focus on macroeconomic reform as a route to tangible, micro-level improvements in daily life.
But what’s striking is how little has changed. The electorate seems to be holding its breath, not yet demanding results, but closely watching how the government responds to their expectations. The summer ahead will be a critical test of whether that goodwill can be sustained, or whether a more demanding public mood will emerge as fall approaches.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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