Abacus Data Nova Scotia Poll: Tim Houston’s PCs Hold Commanding Lead as Opposition Remains Divided
June 12, 2025
We are back with new political numbers from Nova Scotia.
Our latest Nova Scotia omnibus survey, conducted from May 23 to 29, 2025 with 800 adults, finds Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives holding a commanding lead over their political rivals, one month after the federal election and six months after winning a “supermajority” in the 2024 provincial election.
Houston’s PCs continue to dominate Nova Scotia’s political landscape and benefit from a divided opposition.
PC SUPPORT HOLDING STEADY AT 55%
Among decided voters in Nova Scotia, 55% say they would vote for Houston’s PCs if a provincial election were held today. This is virtually unchanged from March (down 1 point), and it is 2 points higher than the party’s performance in last provincial election (53%).
This puts the PCs more than 30 points ahead of the second-place NDP and reflects continued public approval of the government’s direction on key files such as defending Nova Scotia’s interests in the US trade war, fixing healthcare, and advancing their (big) energy and natural resources agenda.
OPPOSITION VOTE REMAINS FRAGMENTED
Claudia Chender’s NDP now sits at 22%, down four points since March and back to the level of support it received in the 2024 election (also 22%). While the NDP remains the clear second-place party, its recent dip in support has opened a little bit of space for others to gain ground.
The Nova Scotia Liberals, now led by Derek Mombourquette, are up slightly to 15%, showing a modest rebound after their post-election low of 13% in our March survey. The Greens and other parties also see small increases, with the Greens now at 2% and other parties collectively at 5%.
With no single opposition party gaining significant momentum, the anti-PC vote remains too fractured to pose a serious challenge to Houston’s government.
REGIONAL & DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWNS
Houston’s PCs continue to lead in every region of the province and by large margins.
- Mainland Nova Scotia: PCs at 62%, Liberals at 15%, NDP at 11% — a 47-point PC lead.
- Cape Breton: PCs at 59%, NDP at 21%, Liberals at 17% — a 38-point PC lead.
- Halifax Municipality: PCs at 49%, NDP at 31%, Liberals at 14% — an 18-point PC lead.
The PCs also maintain strong support across all age groups, with the widest gap being among older Nova Scotians:
- 45 and older: 64% support the PCs.
- Under 45: 43% support the PCs — still a strong showing, in spite of being 21 points lower than it is among older Nova Scotians.
Notably, the Liberals have seen a significant recovery among younger voters, climbing 15 points since March in the under-45 age category (from 7% to 22%). This puts the Liberals in a tie-for- second with the NDP among younger Nova Scotians.
The PCs also lead among men and women. Currently, 59% of women and 51% of men say they would vote PC.
IS THERE A CARNEY EFFECT?
With Mark Carney now serving as Prime Minister, some have wondered if his personal popularity might lift the provincial Liberal brand in Nova Scotia. While it’s too soon to draw definitive conclusions, the Liberals’ modest two-point gain since March could be an early indicator.
Still, the Nova Scotia Liberals remain well below their 2024 provincial election result (23%), and the path back to competitiveness will require more than riding federal coattails. The upcoming leadership race may offer the Liberals a chance to regain ground if they can attract the right leader and build momentum.
THE UPSHOT
Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives remain the dominant political force in Nova Scotia. With 55% of the decided voters and double-digit leads across all regions and age groups, the PCs would win another “supermajority” if a provincial election was held today.
Claudia Chender’s NDP continues to hold the Official Opposition spot, but their support has slipped slightly since March. While Chender’s party remains strong in Halifax, they need to make in-roads in other parts of the province to be more competitive overall.
For their part, the Liberals have shown a small but notable improvement in recent months, particularly among younger voters. Whether this signals the start of a broader recovery remains to be seen, but any rebound will depend on their ability to reconnect with voters and not just hope that the Prime Minister’s political magic will rub off on them too.
With the opposition divided, and no single party consolidating the non-PC vote, the Houston government has the time, space, and political capital to do big things with their second mandate. The challenge before them now is to deliver the significant change and economic activity that the Premier and his Ministers have been promising, keeping the public well-informed and engaged along the way.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 800 adults living in Nova Scotia from May 23 to 29, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.47%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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