A Public Opinion Lens on Carney’s Cabinet
May 13, 2025
Today, Mark Carney’s new government took office, and Canadians received their first clear look at how the Liberals intend to govern following a tightly contested 2025 election.
In my view, it’s clear the cabinet composition reflects the challenging balancing act Carney faces between meeting heightened public expectations, distancing his government from Trudeau’s unpopular legacy, and managing competing domestic and international demands.
Carney inherits an electorate marked by significant anxiety, transitioning from a scarcity mindset—focused on immediate affordability—to a deeper sense of precarity, triggered primarily by threats from President Donald Trump. Abacus Data’s polling throughout the campaign clearly identified two duelling ballot questions: managing the existential threat posed by Trump and delivering meaningful economic and social change at home. Carney’s cabinet choices today needed to signal to voters that he is fully attuned to these dual concerns (we will be tracking this in our next national survey).
Carney’s personal image remains strong post-election (from our post-election survey), notably scoring high on key attributes such as being “smart”, “ready to be Prime Minister”, and “principled”. He notably lagged on relatability, underscoring the importance of surrounding himself with cabinet ministers perceived as grounded and connected to everyday concerns, particularly housing affordability, healthcare, and cost of living—areas identified by Canadians as urgent priorities.
Our polling clearly illustrates the public’s continued focus on economic anxiety. Half of Canadians (50%) want immediate tax relief, reinforcing Carney’s promise of income tax cuts for middle-class and dual-income families. Additionally, cancelling the federal carbon tax remains a critical concern, supported by 40% of voters, highlighting the ongoing sensitivity around energy prices and affordability. With housing, dental care, and housing all tied at 36% each in voters’ minds, today’s cabinet announcement needed to send a strong signal that the new government places a priority on these areas by including decisive voices into cabinet positions responsible for housing and infrastructure, health, and immigration.
Beyond these specifics, Carney’s cabinet selections must also visibly demonstrate a break from Trudeau’s era while offering some stability. Our polling was unequivocal: had Trudeau remained Liberal leader, the party faced certain defeat. Carney’s victory was contingent upon voters believing he represented genuine change. To maintain and solidify this perception, his cabinet choices today should clearly showcase a fresh start. Appointing new, credible figures who weren’t closely tied to Trudeau’s cabinet would visibly underscore the distinction voters expect.
While cabinet choices are important, our 2024 research on the recognizability of political leaders and cabinet ministers reminds us that few cabinet ministers ever become widely recognized figures among the Canadian public. Almost all of the accountability, responsibility, and reputational weight of the government ultimately rests on the leader’s shoulders—a reality vividly demonstrated by how quickly public perceptions shifted following Justin Trudeau’s departure. For Carney, this underscores the need for a cabinet capable of effective governance and public service, even if most ministers remain relatively unknown to Canadians.
Simultaneously, Carney must respond decisively to Trump’s ongoing threats and aggressive economic posture. Nearly half (45%) of Canadians still identify managing the impact of Trump’s decisions as critical to their voting decision, and overwhelmingly trust Carney’s Liberals over Poilievre’s Conservatives to handle this challenge. Key security and foreign policy appointments will send a strong signal domestically and internationally about Canada’s strategic posture under Carney.
Critically, today’s cabinet announcement will also influence whether voters believe Carney can deliver on the “change” mandate that grew dominant as election day approached. Capturing 30% of voters who prioritized change despite leading the incumbent party was a significant achievement. Keeping these voters onboard will depend heavily on tangible policy results delivered quickly and effectively by this new cabinet.
In forming his first cabinet, Carney has brought together experienced figures alongside fresh faces. Gregor Robertson, the former Mayor of Vancouver and a new MP, takes on the significant task of Minister of Housing and Infrastructure, reflecting Carney’s promise to build 500,000 new homes. Robertson’s municipal experience may be particularly valuable in navigating federal-municipal relations critical to housing policy. David McGuinty moves from Public Safety to Minister of National Defence, tasked with scaling up the Canadian Armed Forces and meeting Canada’s NATO defence commitments.
Evan Solomon, newly elected from downtown Toronto, assumes responsibility for the new portfolio of Artificial Intelligence, signaling a commitment to addressing both opportunities and disruptive challenges of emerging technology. Anita Anand moves into the pivotal role of Foreign Minister, where she will navigate complex international dynamics, particularly in managing the critical relationship with the United States under President Trump. François-Philippe Champagne retains his position as Minister of Finance, providing continuity and reassurance on economic management. Melanie Joly transitions from Foreign Affairs to Industry Minister, with an emphasis on industry, rather than innovation.
Tim Hodgson, another notable newcomer elected as an MP, becomes Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. Hodgson, who previously served as CEO of Goldman Sachs Canada and Chair of Hydro One, brings extensive financial and industry experience, likely enhancing confidence in Canada’s energy policy direction.
What this all means?
Many Canadians will be watching, not just for early policy signals in the Throne Speech, but for reassurance that Carney’s team truly reflects the urgent priorities they voiced clearly during the election: protection from insecurity, economic growth (strongest economy in the G7), housing affordability, and secure management of a tumultuous relationship with the United States. The success of this cabinet will ultimately rest on Carney’s ability to reassure voters that their concerns, deeply rooted in precarity, are being heard, understood, and decisively acted upon.
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