How a Historic Election Reversal Emerged: What Abacus Data’s polling tells us about how this election might end.
April 25, 2025
With just days left before Canadians cast their ballots, an election that once seemed destined for a Conservative victory under Pierre Poilievre now stands as an unpredictable contest, with Mark Carney’s Liberals gaining significant momentum. Initially centred around affordability and a widespread desire for change, this campaign has evolved dramatically into a referendum on stability amid global uncertainty.
At the start of the year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government was deeply unpopular. Just 12% believed he and the Liberals deserved to be re-elected and the Conservatives held a commanding 27-point lead. Canadians were increasingly frustrated with the direction of the country, anxious about economic pressures and disillusioned with their government.
Two pivotal events altered the political landscape. Trudeau’s resignation and Mark Carney’s rise as his replacement coincided with Donald Trump’s provocative return as U.S. President, marked by threats of annexation and punitive trade measures targeting Canada. This shift abruptly changed the election’s narrative from one about domestic dissatisfaction (scarcity) to existential concerns about national security and economic resilience (precarity).
Trudeau’s exit left his party scrambling to hold a rapid leadership election. But the timing of that move may come to be seen as essential in not only the reset in public opinion but also Mark Carney’s almost seamless victory. Although few Canadians had a good sense of who is was, he quickly established himself as an experienced leader required to navigate turbulent times for many people. Carney’s public approval grew steadily from an initial 19% in January to 46% as this campaign ends.
Despite the dominance of Trump-related anxieties, affordability remains a critical issue for nearly half of Canadians. Younger voters are particularly concerned about housing and living costs, while older voters increasingly prioritize healthcare and Canada’s response to Trump’s provocations.
This dual-track issue landscape has reshaped the election’s defining ballot question. Initially, a majority prioritized dealing with Trump. Today, however, a desire for change has become the larger focus to voters. A frame that would normally benefit the Conservatives. And it has, to an extent. But among those who say their vote is primarily about a change in direction, a quarter say they have or will vote Liberal. An indication that Carney has not only protected himself from Trudeau’s legacy but has offered enough voters seeking change, a sufficient dose of it.
For the Conservatives, these developments present considerable challenges. Poilievre’s strategy, initially effective against Trudeau’s deeply unpopular government, has become less relevant as voter anxieties have shifted toward international threats. Additionally, Poilievre faced internal party constraints: about one in five Conservative voters maintain positive views of Trump, complicating his ability to adopt a stronger stance against the American president. Most troublingly for Poilievre, our polling suggested that many Canadians believe, rightly or wrongly, that he would have supported Trump if he could have—a perception that severely undermines his ability to effectively counter Carney on this key issue.
The leaders’ debates further solidified this narrative. Carney narrowly edged Poilievre in public perception, and reinforced on critical attributes like standing up to a bully and navigating through crisis—qualities increasingly valued by voters in uncertain times.
Voter engagement in this election has been notably high, with a projected turnout (my projection) around 71%, reflecting the perceived stakes of this election. Nationally, the Liberals currently hold a slender lead, marking an extraordinary turnaround from their earlier deficits. They maintain solid support in critical battlegrounds, particularly British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec. and Atlantic Canada.
Generational divides continue to shape voter preferences. Younger Canadians, motivated by urgent affordability issues, initially favoured the Conservatives but have moved more toward the Liberals and NDP, while older voters (Baby Boomers) have swung decisively toward Carney’s Liberals, largely driven by security concerns related to Trump.
Several factors underpin the Liberals’ recent advantage. Carney’s personal appeal and perceived economic experience have reassured voters. The collapse of NDP support consolidated progressive voters behind the Liberals. Meanwhile, Conservatives have struggled to expand their base, hindered by perceptions linking them negatively with Trump. At 37%, the Conservative might see their vote share increase with few gains in their seat count.
Despite these challenges, not all is lost for Poilievre and the Conservatives. A persistent desire for change remains strong among 54% of Canadians, providing a potentially potent resource. But with only a few days left, time may be running out to refocus more Canadians back toward domestic change and governance issues. .
Significant uncertainties remain, including late shifts in voter sentiment and internal tensions among voters who like Carney personally but remain reluctant to reward the Liberals with another term. How that tension is ultimately resolved could be the difference in the outcome.
This election underscores how rapidly political landscapes can shift. Initially driven by domestic frustrations, more Canadians are now prioritizing stability and leadership capable of confronting external threats. While Carney currently holds the advantage, the Conservative campaign may still possess potential avenues for reclaiming momentum. Although, as I said, time is certaintly running out.
As we approach election day, Abacus Data’s polling work will continue to try and explain these complex dynamics. Our final poll, released Sunday afternoon, will offer the latest insights into voter intentions a day before Election Day.
Thank you for following this crucial election journey with us. Your engagement and support have been wonderful and have encouraged us to keep exploring and sharing what he learn from the priviledge we have in being able to ask Canadians what they’re thinking and feeling.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
