Beyond the Horse Race: A Recap of What We Explored This Election
April 26, 2025
Over the course of this election campaign, our team at Abacus Data has spoken to more than 13,000 Canadians. And we’ve asked them more than just “who are you voting for?”
We’ve explored what they’re feeling. What they’re afraid of. What they want from their leaders. And why—despite all the noise—so many remain undecided, hesitant, or conflicted.
Our approach this campaign has been different. Instead of just tracking vote intention, we’ve been trying to decode what’s driving it. And it’s revealed something deeper: a nation split not just by ideology, but by emotional mindset. A contest not just between parties, but between worldviews—scarcity vs. precarity, disruption vs. stability.
Here’s the story of the work we’ve done—and the people behind it.
Emotional Drivers: From Scarcity to Precarity
At the end of March, we launched our Precarity Index—a tool to measure how anxious, uncertain, and vulnerable people are feeling. We found that nearly 40% of Canadians fall into “high” or “extreme” precarity, where day-to-day decisions are shaped by fears of system collapse—whether it’s housing, healthcare, or economic disruption.
That mindset has defined much of this campaign.
Those feeling most precarious are more likely to support Mark Carney and the Liberals—not because they’re thrilled with the past, but because they crave calm in the face of chaos. Poilievre appeals to those who feel secure enough to demand change. But for the anxious, Carney’s brand—credible, cautious, globally connected—has real power.
This emotional divide—so central to the 2025 campaign—was something we identified early. And it’s shaped everything since.
Models, Mindsets, and Message
To go deeper, we used binary logistic regression models to pinpoint what really predicts vote intention—beyond party ID or demographics.
We found that trust in leadership, desire for change, and perceptions of competence on the economy and Trump were the strongest predictors of support for Carney and Poilievre—not traditional left-right issues or even affordability.
In fact, our models showed that even if someone thinks Poilievre is best on affordability, they may not vote Conservative unless they believe he understands them personally or that change is urgent. And with the Liberal vote, Carney’s personal brand—calm, competent, different from Trudeau—matters more than any policy promise.
We published detailed simulations to show how different combinations of perceptions affect vote probabilities. That work helped illustrate what many feel but can’t articulate: elections are won through emotional resonance, not just rational calculation.
Voter Subgroups: Gen Z, Women, and the Precarious Middle
Oksana led deep dives into gender and generational trends. She showed how Gen Z still sees this as a cost-of-living election, but turnout concerns threaten their influence. Meanwhile, women are drifting Liberal not just because of policy, but because many see Poilievre as less relatable and less compassionate.
We also identified a middle group of voters—those not highly partisan but deeply anxious—who are persuadable, watching closely, and waiting for reassurance. They could decide this election.
Going Beyond the Vote: Expectations and Reactions
We’ve also explored not just who Canadians support, but why—and what they expect from a Carney or Poilievre government. Do people believe Carney will take Canada in a new direction? Do they want Poilievre to cut services or end climate policies? These expectations shape vote intention just as much as preferences do.
After the leaders’ debates, we ran flash polls within 90 minutes to gauge real-time reaction—something only our team could execute at scale. The results? A draw on performance, with Carney holding a slight edge on favourables, but Poilievre matching him on persuasion. Another signal of a tight, emotionally complex race.
Housing, Trump, and the Politics of Precarity
Eddie also led work connecting U.S. trade tensions to rising housing insecurity—especially for younger, renting Canadians. The idea that Trump tariffs could make you lose your home may sound dramatic. But for many, that’s the emotional logic at play. Global threats are being filtered through local vulnerabilities.
The Upshot
This election has been portrayed as a binary choice: change vs. continuity, Poilievre vs. Carney. But what we’ve found is more layered.
It’s a contest between emotional mindsets—between those who want control and those who want reassurance. It’s a debate about what kind of leadership Canadians want in a moment of uncertainty. And it’s being fought not just in vote intentions, but in trust, likability, and the need to feel heard.
We’ve tried to bring that complexity to life—with data, models, empathy, and speed. From real-time debate reactions to deep dives on housing, gender, and emotional drivers, our team—Eddie, Oksana, and myself—has worked to move public opinion analysis beyond the horserace.
More than 13,000 Canadians have shared their views with us. Our job has been to listen, translate, and tell their story.
Because in the end, that’s what public opinion research is all about: understanding what people feel, and how that translates into how they will vote..
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
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