Abacus Data Poll: What do Canadians expect and want a Carney or Poilievre government to do, and why it matters.

Canadian Politics

March 28, 2025

Political campaigns are about more than promises; they are about perceptions. Voters carry in their minds a picture of what a leader will do once in office. That perception is then measured against another all-important question: should they do it? The answers to both questions—will they and should they—colour not only election outcomes but the tone and substance of national debate.

In our latest Abacus Data national survey, the first of the 2025 Canadian election campaign, we asked Canadians about their expectations of a hypothetical Liberal government led by Mark Carney and a Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre. We also inquired whether people believe these new governments should take the policy actions they’re perceived as likely to take. These dual perspectives help reveal not just whether a policy is expected, but whether it’s wanted. And for the two frontrunners vying to replace Justin Trudeau’s government, these findings shine a spotlight on what could be pivotal vulnerabilities and opportunities.

What Canadians Expect of a Carney-led Government—and Whether They Want It

When asked what a Mark Carney-led Liberal government would be likely to do, respondents offered a mix of certainty, uncertainty, and conditional belief. A majority (57%) think such a government will manage the Canadian economy effectively through a difficult period, though only about one in four (23%) feel definite about that assessment. Similarly, 56% believe a Carney government will make it harder to own a gun in Canada, and 56% think it will deal with climate change seriously. Meanwhile, 56% also say they expect Carney to protect Canadian workers from the impact of tariffs that might come from U.S. policies—a crucial source of concern for exporters, manufacturers, and labour groups.

Support for foreign aid and the desire for a new direction both hover near the halfway mark. Just over half (53%) think the Liberals under Carney will maintain the amount Canada currently spends on foreign aid.

One of the more striking and important findings is that fewer than half (49%) believe Carney would “take Canada in a different direction than Justin Trudeau.” Importantly, of those 49%, only 16% say they feel definite that Carney will pivot sharply away from Trudeau’s approach. This hesitancy points to a real communications hurdle for Carney: Canadians consistently report a “broad and deep desire for change,” but they are not fully convinced that Carney represents that break.

From a strategic point of view, addressing this uncertainty is job number one for the Carney campaign. If Canadians primarily desire change, and Carney struggles to persuade them that he actually embodies a new direction, he may fail to harness that appetite in the months to come.

“Should” Carney Do These Things?

Public preferences about what a Carney-led government should do are telling. Fully 91% say the government should manage the economy effectively through this difficult period (61% “definitely should,” 30% “probably should”). Similarly high numbers want to see Carney protect Canadian workers from the impact of U.S. tariffs (90%) and make housing more affordable (also 90%). Canadians are aware of the housing crisis affecting every region of the country and want immediate, tangible measures—whether that’s through new supply initiatives, financial incentives, or more stringent regulations on speculators.

A similarly high percentage (88%) want Carney to take Canada in a different direction from Justin Trudeau. But as noted, far fewer than that are convinced he will do it. The gap between a strong “should do” consensus and a more tepid “will do” perception underscores Carney’s main credibility challenge.

Balancing the federal budget within five years is another area where Canadians show strong enthusiasm: 85% say Carney should aim to do so, with 41% definite on that front. Meanwhile, 77% believe he should deal seriously with climate change, while 73% want him to make it harder to own a gun in Canada. On personal income tax cuts, 76% of Canadians favour them, although fewer (31%) expect to actually see those cuts happen under Carney. This combination points to a policy environment where Canadians support a diverse set of actions—some typically progressive, some traditionally centrist or conservative. The unifying theme is that the vast majority simply want to see concrete results and not just talk.

What Canadians Expect of a Poilievre-led Government—and Whether They Want It

Turning to the Conservative side, we asked what Canadians think Pierre Poilievre and his government will do if they win, and whether they should do it. We have tracked these perceptions over the past few years so have some longitudinal data to compare.

There is a substantial proportion of Canadians who believe Poilievre’s government will eliminate the national carbon tax (62%), cut all public funding to the English CBC (53%), and end the national dental care program the Liberals established (52%). Similarly, 51% think he will end the national childcare program, while 47% believe he will “make it harder for women to have an abortion.” All of those perceptions have increased since the first time we asked back in May 2023.

This last point stands out: only 25% of Canadians want the Conservatives to restrict abortion access, yet nearly half suspect that Poilievre might attempt to do so. Such a perception represents a risk for Poilievre, because it can galvanize voters who lean pro-choice or worry about a reversal of rights.

Interestingly, while 62% think Poilievre will eliminate the carbon tax, just 10% definitely expect him to “take dealing with climate change seriously.” The numbers do show some fraction of Canadians believe Poilievre might do both—though a majority appear to see the removal of the carbon tax and climate action as mutually exclusive. On the other hand, 41% say they definitely want the party to address housing affordability, and in fact, 90% in total want the Conservatives to tackle that challenge. Poilievre has spent considerable political capital elevating the housing affordability issue, so it’s unsurprising that many think he will deliver on that file (41% say “definitely” or “probably” will, and 15% are unsure). Reinforcing this perceived focus on affordability—and showcasing a realistic plan—may be a defining aspect of Poilievre’s appeal to younger voters and Canadians worried about the cost of living.

“Should” Poilievre Do These Things?

When we gauge whether Canadians want Poilievre to do the things they think he might do, a clearer fault line emerges. A majority want him to pursue affordability (90%), balance the federal budget within four years (80%), and cut personal income taxes (69%). Two-thirds (69%) say the Conservatives should eliminate the national carbon tax—slightly less than the proportion that believe Poilievre will do so, but still a substantial number. It’s an indication that while the carbon tax has some defenders, a considerable swath of Canadians either distrust its effectiveness, or see it as an excessive economic burden at a time of inflation and recessionary threats. The fact that Mark Carney has tried to neutralize this issue by eliminating in his first days in office shows why he did so.

However, there is far less appetite for ending national childcare (33% say it “definitely” or “probably should” be ended) and even less for scrapping national dentalcare (28%). Canadians appear to value these new social programs: though they might be open to minor modifications, they do not want the rug pulled out from under them. A more explicit vulnerability for Poilievre is on abortion: only 25% believe the Conservatives should restrict access, but 47% expect they will. That divide is a serious risk area for a party aiming to attract moderate voters while also appeasing more traditionally conservative or socially conservative supporters.

Another interesting dimension is immigration. Only 33% want a Conservative government to welcome as many immigrants as the Liberals currently do, yet in general, Canadians tend to hold fairly positive attitudes toward immigration—especially around economic immigration and the need to fill labour market gaps. Nonetheless, it suggests a wedge issue the party might exploit if it can do so without appearing antagonistic or xenophobic to those in the centre.

Key Conclusions and Strategic Takeaways

These data highlight that what voters think a politician will do is as important as what they actually want them to do. For Mark Carney, the top-line takeaways are straightforward:

Protecting workers from tariffs: About 56% believe he will do it; 90% believe he should do it. There is alignment here—he’s perceived as relatively strong on financial and economic matters.

Making housing more affordable: Only 41% believe he will, yet 90% think he should. There’s a huge gap between the desire for action and confidence in that action.

Offering a new direction from Trudeau: Only 49% of Canadians think Carney will provide this new direction, even though 88% want him to. Overcoming any conflation with Trudeau’s legacy is critical if Carney is to harness Canadians’ significant appetite for change.

For Pierre Poilievre, some opportunities are equally visible:

Housing affordability and tax cuts: These remain core strengths. A large majority want him to tackle them, and a fair number believe he will. Doubling down on these issues could sustain or widen his appeal.

Climate change, social programs, and abortion: These are vulnerable spots. Many suspect he will roll back progress (or shift in an unwelcome direction) on these fronts, yet they don’t want him to. So he must walk a fine line to reassure Canadians—particularly moderate voters—that these fears are misplaced.

Ultimately, both leaders face a perception gap between what Canadians want and what they believe each leader will deliver. For Carney, that gap is largely about proving he offers genuine renewal rather than a continuation of the Trudeau era. For Poilievre, it’s about convincing voters that his focus on affordability and taxes does not come with unwelcome changes to social programs or women’s rights.

Campaign messaging that addresses these anxieties directly could decide who ends up winning the confidence of a country demanding both prosperity and progress. And in elections, as in all politics, bridging the gap between what people think you’ll do and what they want you to do can be the difference between electoral victory and defeat.

gender, we see further nuance. Younger women (18–44) are among the most likely to emphasize both affordability (53%) and healthcare improvements (22%). Meanwhile, older men and women (45+) are more inclined than their younger counterparts to choose “Dealing with Donald Trump” as a key factor. These gaps underscore how age and personal circumstances shape what feels urgent or potentially disruptive.

Put simply, if the ballot question becomes “Is your life getting more expensive, and do we need a fundamental change to fix it?” Conservatives and Poilievre win. If the question shifts to “Do we need a steady hand to protect Canada from Trump’s unpredictability (and the risks beyond our borders)?” then I think Liberals and Carney win.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians eligible to vote from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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