Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 4
April 13, 2025
At about the three-week mark of the campaign, a new Abacus Data poll conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025 finds the Liberals holding a 4-point lead over the Conservatives.
We see not only a shift in raw vote intention but a broader convergence of factors—leader impressions, expectations of who will form the next government, and top-of-mind issues—that now firmly favour the Liberals heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Regionally, the Liberals continue to hold a solid 10-point lead in Ontario (48% vs. 38%). They are ahead by 23-points in Metro Toronto and by 2-points in the region surrounding Toronto (areas where postal codes start with L).
They remain dominant in Atlantic Canada, securing 55% to the Conservatives’ 31%. In Quebec, the Liberals hold a solid advantage over both the Conservatives and the Bloc (39% vs. 23% and 26%, respectively).
Meanwhile, the Conservatives still command large margins across Alberta and parts of the Prairies, though those leads have narrowed slightly relative to earlier in the campaign.
In British Columbia, the picture remains tight, with the Liberals and Conservatives effectively tied at 41%.
When looking at demographic patterns, the Liberals hold or match the Conservatives across all major age categories, including a notable double-digit advantage among those 60 years and older—a cohort that traditionally tilts more Conservative.
On educational attainment, the Liberals enjoy a sizable lead among university graduates, remain competitive among college graduates, and trail by a small margin among those with lower formal education. This points to a broadening of the Liberal coalition, which now spans a wide range of regions and demographic subgroups.
Much of the Liberals’ advantage can be attributed to improving public impressions of Mark Carney. The Liberal leader’s net favourability now stands at a robust +20 (48% positive vs. 28% negative), up significantly from the early weeks of the campaign.
In contrast, Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 38% of Canadians and negatively by 42%, resulting in a –4 net score. Poilievre’s supporters remain enthusiastic, but he has struggled to attract moderate or undecided voters at the same pace as Carney.
This difference is reflected in the “Preferred Prime Minister” metric, where Carney now leads Poilievre by nine points (43% vs. 34%).
Who is better… Carney or Poilievre?
New data from our latest wave of polling shows a marked upswing for Mark Carney on four leadership attributes we have consistently found to be strong predictors of vote intention. First, more Canadians now believe Carney is better at “finding common ground to solve a dispute,” suggesting that he is increasingly seen as the leader who can unite differing viewpoints and foster cooperation. This improvement underscores how Carney’s approach and messaging throughout the campaign have resonated with moderate and swing voters who value a prime minister capable of navigating political polarization.
Carney also continues to widen his lead on “standing up to a bully,” a measure that voters associate with resilience, fortitude, and the capacity to defend Canada’s interests on the international stage. At the same time, his edge on “captaining a ship through a rough storm” has grown, reflecting Canadians’ mounting perception that Carney has the judgement and temperament to steer the country through turbulent economic or diplomatic challenges. Both of these indicators became increasingly relevant amid concerns about Canada-U.S. trade relations and Donald Trump’s threats to Canada, lending Carney an advantage in the eyes of many voters looking for steadiness and competence
Finally, one of the most notable shifts is in how Carney is viewed on “helping you manage your household expenses”—a domain where Conservative messaging historically resonates. That Carney has managed to close and even overcome the gap on an issue so closely linked to affordability suggests he is successfully positioning himself as a pragmatic economic manager. Altogether, these four metrics illustrate a significant boost in Carney’s perceived leadership qualities; coupled with his improving overall favourability, they help explain the Liberals’ strengthening position as we enter the final stretch of the campaign.
Carney and the Liberals Expand Issue Ownership and Close Gap on Housing and Cost of Living
Turning to the issues, the Liberals’ position is buoyed by their perceived edge in managing the Trump file, the economy, climate policy, and national unity.
While the Conservatives had previously relied on cost-of-living concerns to rally voters, that once-formidable advantage has eroded amid heightened attention to potential cross-border tensions with the U.S. Mark Carney’s international and economic credentials appear to reassure many Canadians about his capacity to deal effectively with external shocks. The conversation surrounding “Liberation Day” and reciprocal tariffs seems to have played to the Liberals’ strengths, allowing them to spotlight Carney’s background and calm, measured tone on trade and foreign affairs.
Re-elect vs. Change
Over the past month, the proportion of Canadians saying it’s “definitely time for a change in government” has dropped from 57% in mid-March to 51% in our latest wave—representing a notable six-point decline in just a few weeks. At the same time, the share who feel it’s “definitely best to keep the Liberals in office” has risen steadily from 21% to 24%. This shift in sentiment suggests that the once pronounced appetite for unseating the incumbent government has softened, while core Liberal support has become more solid.
Compared to previous election cycles—both federal and provincial—the Liberals now sit squarely in what we’ve historically observed to be a “re-elect zone.” In past instances where incumbents have enjoyed a stable or growing group of committed supporters and a declining demand for change, they typically went on to secure another mandate. Although around half of Canadians still express a desire for change, the upward trend in those who strongly favour a Liberal re-election—and the downward movement in those insisting on a change—indicates a meaningful shift in the political landscape heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Interest in the Election
Compared to the start of the 2021 general election, interest in this year’s campaign is substantially higher. In 2021, 53% of Canadians described themselves as “very interested” (scoring 8 to 10 on a 10-point scale), while this year, that figure has jumped to 69%. Moreover, the share who rate their interest at the maximum level (10 out of 10) has risen from 24% to 35%, underscoring the extent to which the electorate is more engaged than it was four years ago. This heightened enthusiasm suggests a broader public appetite to follow campaign developments closely—likely influenced by the higher-stakes issues and personalities dominating the 2025 race.
The Upcoming Leaders’ Debates
Our data indicate that 58% of Canadians say they intend to watch the upcoming English-language leaders’ debate, nearly double the 23% who plan to watch the French-language debate. Conversely, 69% say they will not be watching the French debate.
When asked to select the top five issues they want covered in the upcoming federal leaders’ debates, Canadians placed Donald Trump and his administration at the top of the list (68%), followed closely by housing affordability (65%), healthcare (64%), and jobs and the economy (63%). These core concerns reflect a blend of both international and domestic priorities, as voters weigh the potential impact of U.S. policy changes alongside everyday concerns about access to housing, stable healthcare services, and economic security. Immigration and population growth (43%) round out the mid-level tier, while national defence (36%), natural resource development (36%), and climate change (28%) are also viewed as critical topics for debate. Only a small fraction (10%) want a focus on Indigenous Reconciliation, and 5% would like to see other specific issues addressed.
Expectations heading into the two leaders’ debates vary dramatically by language. For the English-language debate, a 44% plurality of Canadians believe Mark Carney will turn in the strongest performance—well ahead of Pierre Poilievre at 32%, with the other leaders garnering only single-digit support.
In contrast, opinions on the French-language debate show a very different balance. While Pierre Poilievre leads with 30% expecting him to excel, a close 29% believe Yves-François Blanchet—an established presence in Quebec politics—will shine most brightly. Mark Carney, who holds a stronger image overall, is at just 12% on this measure, reflecting lingering doubts about his French proficiency or comfort level in a francophone debate setting. These comparatively low expectations could work in Carney’s favour if he manages to exceed them on debate night, but for now, it’s Poilievre and Blanchet who voters believe will dominate on the French stage.
The Upshot
Looking ahead, time is growing short for the Conservatives to reverse these trends. With the media narrative increasingly highlighting Carney’s leadership abilities and the Liberals’ overall momentum, Poilievre may need to pull focus back onto bread-and-butter issues like affordability and government accountability if he hopes to diminish the Liberals’ advantage. Historically, elections can shift course in the final stretch, but the data presently on offer point to a Liberal campaign that is both motivated and increasingly unified—finding ways to expand beyond its base of 2021 supporters.
Taken as a whole, the latest polling suggests that the Liberals have the upper hand in the 2025 federal election. Mark Carney’s rapid favourability climb, combined with regional and demographic realignments, has positioned his party as the current favourite to form government. While there is still a path to victory for the Conservatives—given their sizeable base and strong foothold in parts of Western Canada—the impetus now lies with Pierre Poilievre to drive a major shift in the campaign narrative if he hopes to close the gap before election day.
Many Canadians say they plan to watch at least one of the upcoming leaders’ debates, with especially high interest in the English-language event. Expectations for Mark Carney are notably high on that stage, where a sizeable share of voters predict he will turn in the strongest performance, eclipsing Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders. However, anticipation for Carney’s showing in the French-language debate remains more muted: a much smaller proportion expect him to do well against opponents like Poilievre and Yves-François Blanchet. These data points highlight both a large viewership for the debates overall and a leader whose perceived strengths in English contrast with lingering doubts about his French proficiency. The debates could be critical moments in this campaign.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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