Abacus Data Poll: Liberal lead down to 2

Canadian Politics

April 16, 2025

With less than two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls on April 28, our most recent Abacus Data survey (conducted on April 14 and 15) provides an updated snapshot of the race as party leaders prepare for two pivotal debates: the French-language Leaders’ Debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow. This smaller sample, quick turnaround poll serves as a benchmark before these highly anticipated events, and we plan to conduct another survey over the upcoming long weekend to assess any post-debate shifts after voters have had a chance to watch the debates and discuss their impressions with friends and family over the holiday.

Overall, the data suggest that the Liberal lead has narrowed to just two points nationally (40% Liberal vs. 38% Conservative), down from a six-point advantage two weeks ago.

Moreover, among those who are most certain to vote, the Conservatives now post a slight numerical lead, underscoring a possible turnout advantage for Pierre Poilievre’s supporters if current enthusiasm levels hold. Despite these signs of a tightening race, regional patterns and other important metrics—such as perceptions of leadership and the sense of overall campaign momentum—still tilt in favour of Mark Carney and the Liberals. Below, we break down the key findings, the factors that may be causing the narrowing Liberal lead, and what to watch for heading into two crucial debate nights.

National and Regional Vote Intention

Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois has inched up to 7% nationally.

While the two-point Liberal lead is within the margin of error, it represents a clear tightening from the six-point advantage recorded earlier in April.

Crucially, when we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Conservatives (40%) edge the Liberals (39%), with the NDP at 12%. This shift suggests that Conservative supporters, at least for now, may be more slightly more mobilized, introducing a scenario where enthusiasm could give the Conservatives a slight turnout edge if nothing changes.

Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:

British Columbia: The Liberals and Conservatives are effectively tied (39% vs. 39%), with the NDP at 16%.

Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by seven points (47% vs. 40%), marking a continuation of the Liberal advantage in Canada’s largest province—though that gap has tightened from double-digit leads in earlier polls.

Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 36%, compared to the Bloc’s 36% and the Conservatives’ 19%. Given the Bloc’s strong base in Quebec, the Liberals’ tie here is a favourable outcome for them, especially since Carney’s personal popularity in Quebec continues to outpace his rivals.

It’s worth reiterating that, because this poll was fielded among a smaller sample, the margins of error across subgroups—particularly at the regional level—are larger than usual. While the overall tightening is evident, specific regional shifts should be interpreted with caution.

Desire for Change Resurges

One of the most striking shifts in this poll is the upswing in the desire for change—a measure that had dipped in our previous waves but is now back in line with levels seen at the start of the campaign. Fully 56% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government,” up from 51% just one week ago. Meanwhile, the share who strongly want the Liberals re-elected has dropped to 21% (down from 24%).

Among those who are firmly in the “time for a change” camp, 59% say they will vote Conservative, 15% are opting for the Liberals, and 13% for the NDP.

Leader Impressions: Carney Still on Top, But Slight Dip

Liberal Leader Mark Carney remains the most well-regarded major federal leader, with 45% of respondents viewing him positively versus 32% negatively, yielding a net favourability of +13. However, this represents a four-point drop in net score compared to the +20 he enjoyed in our previous survey, due to a slight reduction in his positive ratings (down 3) and an uptick in his negatives (up 4).

By contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre sees his negative impressions decline somewhat (43% negative), while 40% hold a positive impression, producing a net score of –3—a modest improvement for Poilievre.

On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (40% vs. 34%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week. The margin is especially large in Quebec, where Carney’s personal brand has given him a 24-point advantage over Poilievre, and in Ontario, where Carney leads by nine.

Changing Salience of Key Issues: Trump Slides, Cost of Living Climbs

Over the past several weeks, Donald Trump’s role as a major campaign issue in Canada has been prominent, with discussions of cross-border trade tensions and “Liberation Day” pronouncements from the White House. Yet this poll finds that the salience of dealing with Trump is down three points (to 33%) as a top-two issue, while “reducing the cost of living” is up two points (to 46%).

Despite this shift, Carney and the Liberals retain a clear lead in voters’ minds on handling Trump (where they lead the Conservatives by 34 points among those who rank the Trump issue as a top concern). However, Poilievre and the Conservatives appear to have regained a small but meaningful advantage on housing affordability (+4) and reducing the cost of living (+4). These two issue areas are historically strong for Conservatives and remain central to the everyday concerns of many Canadians—especially as housing costs continue to to be a major pressure point and affordability remains front and centre.

When we segment voters by their top issues, a polarized pattern emerges:

Among the 33% who prioritize “dealing with Trump,” the Liberals lead by a 34-point margin (57% vs. 33%).

Among the 46% who list “cost of living” as a top concern, Poilievre’s Conservatives lead by 11 points (46% vs. 35%).

Shift in Voter Framing: “Change” vs. “Trump”

A specific question in our survey probes which factor is more likely to decide people’s votes: (a) the party best able to handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada, or (b) the party best able to deliver a change in direction and policy. Since the start of the campaign, more Canadians had typically answered “Trump.” Now, 55% say their vote is about delivering change, versus 45% who continue to prioritize handling Trump. This reversal dovetails with the increased desire for change observed in this poll, potentially magnifying Conservative gains.

We also asked about other pairings: “cost of living vs. dealing with Trump,” and “best plan for the economy vs. dealing with Trump.” In both cases, cost of living and “change” have begun to pull away from “Trump.” While many Canadians remain concerned about the ramifications of Donald Trump’s policy stances, a growing share appears to consider domestic affordability challenges the more immediate priority. That tilt benefits Poilievre.

Liberals Still Seen as the Likely Winners

Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.

Elevated Interest and Debate Expectations

As with previous waves, overall campaign interest continues to track higher than in Canada’s 2021 election. Notably, a majority of respondents (57%) say they are “very interested,” and the share who rate their interest at a perfect 10 on a 10-point scale remains above one-third. This heightened engagement could translate into stronger-than-usual turnout, particularly for parties able to mobilize supporters around their core issues.

Debate viewership is likewise expected to be substantial. Many Canadians plan to watch both the French-language debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow, though the English event typically garners a much larger national audience. Expectations for Mark Carney remain highest for the English debate: 41% believe he will perform best, compared to 34% who pick Poilievre. Meanwhile, for the French debate, Poilievre (31%) and Yves-François Blanchet (31%) share top billing among those with an opinion, though Carney could exceed relatively modest expectations (12%) if he demonstrates improved French-language fluency.

The Upshot

Two weeks ago, the Liberals held a six-point advantage nationally. In our latest poll, conducted earlier this week, that lead is down to just two points. In fact, among the most committed voters, the Conservatives hold a slender edge—possibly reflecting a more energized Conservative base or an electorate turning its focus back to cost-of-living concerns. Moreover, the desire for change has bounced back to 56%, and that momentum typically favours the main opposition party. Taken together, these indicators add up to meaningful good news for Pierre Poilievre, who needs continued momentum to build enough of a popular vote advantage to win more seats.

Still, it would be premature to declare this a genuine sea change. This was a smaller-sample survey, so we are not drawing ironclad conclusions about a permanent shift in the race. Moreover, Mark Carney continues to score highest on personal popularity and leads in overall “Preferred Prime Minister” metrics by six points. His party also remains ahead or competitive on key policy areas like handling Donald Trump, the economy, climate change, and international representation, and is competitive on more traditionally strong Conservative issues like affordability and housing.

Ultimately, the Liberal position remains arguably stronger than a two-point national lead might suggest, owing to robust support in Ontario and Quebec, Carney’s relative popularity, and a still-sizeable group of voters who anticipate a Liberal victory. That said, Poilievre’s path to unseating the government has become more tangible over the past couple of weeks, thanks to renewed emphasis on affordability and rising dissatisfaction with the status quo. The upcoming French and English Leaders’ Debates could be pivotal, especially for voters who tune in looking for an alternative to the Liberals. If Poilievre can deliver a performance that galvanizes swing voters or those craving change, this could put the Conservatives in a position to keep chipping away at the Liberal lead.

We’ll have a clearer sense of whether this narrowing gap is a short-term fluctuation or part of a longer-term trend after we conduct our next poll over the long weekend. With advance voting starting this Friday and Election Day on April 28, the final stretch of this campaign is rapidly approaching—and these next few days, including both debates, could prove decisive.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,200 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 14 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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