Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 3 in final days of the campaign.
April 23, 2025
With less than a week to go in the campaign, a new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among all committed eligible voters and those who have voted and by 5 among those who are most certain to vote and those who have voted in an advance poll.
This survey was conducted entirely after the two leaders’ debates held last week and interviewed 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote from April 18 to 21, 2025.
Overall, the data suggest that not much has changed over the weekend and following the two debates. Mark Carney remains the most popular federal party leader. The Liberals continue to have the largest pool of accessible voters, and regionally, the Liberals have leads in British Columbia, Ontairo, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The data continues to suggest that the Liberals have a clear advantage and remain the favourites to win the election.
National and Regional Vote
Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois is at 6% nationally. Note, this includes both those who have already voted and those who are decided about who they will vote for.
Since last week, the Liberal and NDP vote share is unchanged while the Conservative vote share is down 1 point.
When we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot and those who already have—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Liberals open up a 5-point lead over the Conservatives with 42% voting Liberal compared to 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP get 10% of the most certain vote group.
Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:
British Columbia: The Liberals have opened up a 9-point lead over the Conservatives (42% to 33%) with the NDP at 15%.
Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points, a smaller gap than we have seen over the last two waves.
Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 33%, compared to the Bloc’s 30% and the Conservatives’ 26%. This is the smallest gap we’ve seen in Quebec since the campaign began.
Desire for Change Holds
Despite a clear desire for change, support for the incumbent Liberals remains remarkably resilient. In our latest data, 55% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government”—a high number, but only slightly above the 50% threshold recorded in the final polls before several recent elections, including the 2021 federal contest. At the same time, 23% now say it’s “definitely best” to keep the Liberals in office, matching the highest level recorded during this campaign. This is important context: historically, elections with a similar desire for change—such as the 2021 federal vote or the 2024 Nova Scotia election—have not always resulted in the incumbent being defeated. With that 23% firmly behind the Liberals and much of the rest of the electorate split between opposition options, the appetite for change may not be intense or unified enough to deny the governing Liberals another mandate.
Leader Impressions: Carney Still Has Best Image, Poilievre’s Negatives Rise
Mark Carney continues to hold the strongest personal brand among the major party leaders. His positive impressions now sit at 46%, while 33% of Canadians view him negatively. Carney performs especially well among older voters and in key battleground regions like Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where his positive numbers exceed 50%. Among Liberal supporters, his image is overwhelmingly positive, but he also finds support among a notable share of NDP voters—suggesting that he’s not only inherited the Liberal base but is also attracting progressive voters looking to stop a Conservative government. It’s also noteworthy that men have a more favourable impression of him than women.
Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers, on the other hand, continue to pose a challenge for his campaign. While 39% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, 46% view him negatively—his highest negative rating since the campaign began. His support remains concentrated in Alberta and among committed Conservative voters, but he struggles with older Canadians, women, and voters in Quebec. In Ontario—a region critical to any path to victory—his negatives are climbing, and he has been unable to chip away at Carney’s regional lead. The gender gap in his appeal is also stark: men are more evenly split, while a clear majority of women view him negatively.
Jagmeet Singh’s image has remained flat throughout much of the campaign. Currently, 32% of Canadians say they have a positive view of him, while 39% are negative. His support is strongest among younger Canadians and core NDP partisans, but he has not been able to broaden his appeal beyond that base. With little movement in his favourability over the past month, Singh appears to be stuck in place.
On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (41% vs. 35%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week.
Changing Salience of Key Issues: Trump Slides, Cost of Living Climbs
As the campaign enters its final days, affordability remains the top issue on Canadians’ minds. Forty-nine percent now rank reducing the cost of living among their top two priorities—a three-point increase from the previous wave and a six-point increase over two weeks. This concern spans all age groups, but is especially prominent among voters aged 30 to 59.
Meanwhile, the salience of dealing with Donald Trump has declined slightly, down one point to 32% and down 4 since two weeks ago. While still a major issue, it no longer dominates the political conversation in the way it did earlier in the campaign. That shift may be giving the Conservatives a bit more room to press their affordability message, but not enough to fundamentally shift the dynamics.
Despite Trump’s slightly diminished salience, the issue continues to be one of the most defining electoral cleavages. Among those who rank dealing with Trump as one of their top two concerns, the Liberals hold a massive 40-point lead over the Conservatives—60% to 20%. No other issue creates this kind of partisan gulf. Even though fewer voters are making their decision based on the Trump factor, those who do are overwhelmingly choosing the Liberals. This helps explain why the Liberals remain competitive even as the focus shifts toward affordability—because the Trump issue is disproportionately salient among older, high-turnout voters.
At the same time, the Conservatives continue to hold a narrow edge among those most focused on affordability. Among voters prioritizing cost of living, 43% plan to vote Conservative, but 32% still back the Liberals and 11% support the NDP. It’s not the kind of dominant lead the Conservatives once hoped for—especially given how central this issue has been to their campaign. Even on housing affordability and the economy, the Liberal brand has improved. On who would do the best job growing the economy, the Liberals lead by five points. On housing, Conservatives lead by five, but that margin is shrinking.
When voters are asked more broadly who would best handle key issues, the Liberals outperform on most. Carney’s team leads on Trump, international relations, and unity, and is essentially tied on healthcare. The Conservatives have a slight advantage on the cost of living while the Liberals have a similar sized advantage on the economy. The salience of Trump may be fading, but the Liberals’ dominance among those who still care deeply about it remains one of the strongest vote predictors in the campaign.
Shift in Voter Framing: “Change” vs. “Trump”
One of the most important developments late in the campaign is the evolving way voters are framing the ballot question. At the end of March, more Canadians said they would cast their vote based on which party could best handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada. But in our most recent surveys that has flipped back. Fifty-six per cent now say the more decisive factor is which party can deliver a change in direction and policy, while only 44% say it’s about who can manage the Trump threat. That’s a 10-point swing over the course of the election The shift reflects a return to economic bread-and-butter issues as a more dominant lens, especially as Canadians finish voting during the final stretch of the campaign.
However, even with the Trump frame declining in salience, it remains a powerful predictor of vote choice. Among those who continue to prioritize Trump’s impact on Canada, the Liberals hold a massive lead—60% say they will vote Liberal, compared to just 19% for the Conservatives. In contrast, among those focused on affordability, the race tightens. The Conservatives lead that group 51% to 25% over the Liberals, with the NDP at 12% among those who say their primary choice is about change.
But the Liberal vote in this affordability-focused group is more resilient than expected, particularly given how central cost-of-living issues have been to the Conservative campaign. Similarly, when the election is framed as a choice between affordability and Trump, affordability wins by a wider margin but the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is lower – the Conservatives only lead by 16.
Regionally and demographically, the frame matters. In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Trump frame remains relatively strong, contributing to the Liberal vote advantage in both regions. Among older voters, who are more likely to see Trump as a central concern, the Liberal advantage persists, even as affordability rises in importance. Meanwhile, younger Canadians overwhelmingly frame the election as about change or the cost of living. What this all points to is a ballot question in flux—but with core voter segments locked into the Liberals when the conversation is about global risk and leadership, while the Conservatives only gain ground when the lens narrows strictly to affordability. That tension has helped sustain the Liberal lead in vote intention, even as the economic frame dominates the campaign’s final week.
Liberals Still Seen as the Likely Winners
Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.
Leaders’ Debate Reaction
Canadians tuned in to the debates in modest numbers, with 47% saying they watched at least some of the English-language leaders’ debate and 33% reporting they did the same for the French debate. Another third heard about them through media or word of mouth. These numbers suggest the debates reached a sizable, though not overwhelming, share of the electorate—and, as the data show, the impact on impressions was incremental, not transformational.
Among those who engaged with the debates, Mark Carney came out slightly ahead of Pierre Poilievre in both languages, earning 37% of the vote for best performance in the English debate compared to Poilievre’s 34%, and 26% in the French debate versus 29% for Poilievre. However, the most striking figure may be the large share of viewers who said no one really earned their vote: 16% in English and 26% in French. This reinforces the idea that the debates largely confirmed existing leanings rather than shifting voter preferences.
Looking at impressions, Carney consistently left more positive marks than his rivals. In the English debate, 52% of viewers said he made a positive impression—six points ahead of Poilievre, who also generated more negative reactions (29% vs. Carney’s 23%). Among francophone Quebecers, Yves-François Blanchet led on positive impressions at 59%, but Carney still edged Poilievre in net favourability (41% positive, 23% negative vs. Poilievre’s 47% positive, 29% negative). Overall, these numbers suggest Carney effectively maintained his leadership brand through the debates, while Poilievre was unable to shift the race in his favour.
The Upshot
With just days remaining before election day, our latest tracking suggests the trajectory of the campaign remains largely unchanged. Despite a shift in how voters are framing their decision—more now clearly say affordability is their top concern rather than Donald Trump’s impact on Canada—the Liberals continue to hold a modest but durable lead. The televised leaders’ debates last week, expected to be pivotal moments, appear to have done little to reshape public opinion. And the early read from the long weekend, when nearly a quarter of Canadians say they cast their ballot, shows that impressions solidified before the debates and holiday gatherings have largely stuck. The race, in other words, is still playing out on familiar ground—with the Liberals narrowly ahead.
What’s holding this Liberal advantage together is the largely positive appeal of Mark Carney. Although a majority of Canadians still say they want change, many also say they like Carney and see him as best equipped to manage the risks posed by Donald Trump. That internal tension—between wanting to punish the Liberals for past performance and feeling reassured by Carney’s leadership—is creating space for the Liberals to win, even in a change election. Carney’s favourables remain the strongest of any major leader, and among those prioritizing stability and leadership, he has become the clear choice.
The Conservatives still have a path forward, but it’s a narrowing one. Affordability remains a potent issue, especially among middle-aged voters, and the Conservatives continue to lead among those who see it as their top concern. But it hasn’t been enough to tip the race. The Liberals remain better positioned regionally, with double-digit leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, competitive support in Quebec and British Columbia, and a more motivated and committed base. Unless the Conservatives can engineer a major momentum shift in the final stretch, the early vote and polling trends suggest the Liberals still hold the advantage—and it’s one built on leadership impressions, turnout readiness, and the right vote efficiency in the ridings that matter most.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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