Abacus Data Poll: As the Election Kicks Off, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 3 as the NDP sinks further
March 23, 2025
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw at this point in 2021.
At first glance, the top-line results show the Conservatives holding a narrow lead nationally at 39%, with the Liberals close behind at 36%, and the NDP trailing at 12%. However, as is often the case, these toplines mask significant movement in the underlying trends.
The Liberals have gained noticeable ground in key regions—especially Ontario and British Columbia—and now enjoy a large lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, the NDP is hitting its lowest support level since Jagmeet Singh became leader, pointing to a significant loss of momentum at precisely the moment the campaign begins in earnest.
Vote Intentions, Regions, and Demographics
We see a number of regional and demographic patterns that are already reshaping the electoral map:
- Ontario: The Conservatives and Liberals are essentially tied, although the gap has narrowed from previous polling. This suggests the Liberals have improved their position heading into the campaign, which is vital for either party’s path to victory.
- British Columbia: The race is tightening. The Conservatives still hold a slight advantage, but the Liberals have gained ground, and the NDP is losing momentum. That sets up a dynamic three-way fight in many BC ridings.
- Quebec: The Liberals hold a substantial lead over both the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives. As in 2021, a strong Liberal performance in Quebec could give them a decisive edge in seat counts, even if they lag the Conservatives slightly in the national popular vote.
- Atlantic Canada: The Liberals also enjoy a considerable lead here, continuing a long-standing pattern of Eastern Canada leaning red—at least when the party’s prospects are perceived as strong nationally.
- Prairies: The Conservatives maintain a comfortable lead, reflecting their traditional base of support in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
Demographically, the Liberals enjoy stronger support among women than men, while the Conservatives perform particularly well among older voters (60+), a pattern that holds from past elections. The Liberals are competitive or leading among those under 45, but the NDP’s decline signals a younger electorate coalescing more around the Liberals at this early stage, with some younger voters also open to the Conservatives.
Past Voters and Certainty to Vote
An especially revealing insight comes from looking at how 2021 voters are aligning now. The Liberals are retaining a large proportion of their past supporters, and they’re drawing many who voted NDP last time. Conservative retention remains fairly high, but there are small cracks in their coalition compared to past election cycles. Most notably, the NDP is losing support to both the Liberals and the Conservatives—a sign that disaffected 2021 NDP voters are splitting in different directions.
Among those most certain to vote, the gap narrows even further. The Conservatives sit at 38% among definite voters compared to 37% for the Liberals, bringing the race to a statistical tie. This signals that the usual Conservative advantage on turnout might not be as pronounced if Liberal partisans continue to show higher enthusiasm. Indeed, in this wave, we find that Liberal voters now report high levels of engagement—an important detail, since the turnout gap is often critical to shaping actual results.
But we also see that Liberal and NDP supporters are more likely to say they could change their mind signally a potential softness in their vote. These voters are looking for a clear option which is why a further consolidation around the Liberals could happen, especially since a growing number of people believe they will win the next election.
Growing Appetite for Change, But an Uncertain Path
A telling statistic is that 57% of Canadians say they “definitely” want a change in government—higher than at the end of the 2021 campaign, and roughly on par with where Stephen Harper’s government stood just before losing in 2015. This number is a real concern for any incumbent party. However, it’s not at the level we would call an “absolute danger zone,” as some campaigns have recovered from roughly similar positions, including Doug Ford’s PCs who were recently re-elected in Ontario
Still, among that 57% who definitely want change, the Conservatives capture 56% of the vote, while 15% say they would vote Liberal. That indicates a real opportunity for the Conservatives to reinforce the “time for a change” message—but also a vulnerability if issues such as Trump’s influence drive significant shifts in the campaign narrative and lead change voters to vote for the Liberals, despite wanting a change.
Leadership Impressions and the Trump Factor
One of the more interesting findings is the degree to which interest in this election is surging. Seventy-two percent now say they are “very interested” (8, 9, or 10 out of 10) in the coming vote—substantially higher than at the same point in 2021. That means leaders will be under more intense scrutiny, and impressions can shape campaign momentum.
Mark Carney (Liberal): With a net impression of +12, Carney holds the most positive rating of the three main party leaders, although roughly one in three Canadians either have a neutral opinion or don’t know enough yet to say. He’s seen as “smart” (61%) and “a strong leader” (46%), outscoring the others on both measures. His biggest opportunity is to introduce himself more fully to Canadians, given he’s the least well-known sitting Prime Minister in living memory—a highly unusual position.
Pierre Poilievre (Conservative): Poilievre’s net impression stands at -8, with a plurality describing him as “untrustworthy” (44%) and “fake” (42%). Still, many see him as capable on cost of living and housing, two issues that dominate voters’ minds. His task will be to retain focus on these pocketbook concerns and unify the “change” vote behind him.
Jagmeet Singh (NDP): Singh’s net impression is at -13, his lowest in recent memory, mirroring the broader struggles of the NDP. Many still view him as friendly and compassionate, but fewer believe he’s a strong leader or best in tune with their values. As a result, his support appears more fluid, with votes drifting toward both the Liberals and Conservatives.
Then there’s Donald Trump, currently President of the United States, looming large for many Canadians. A full 77% have a negative impression of him, and he ranks as a driving factor in this election for a significant share of the electorate. Among those who say Trump is the most important issue affecting their vote, the Liberals lead by almost 30 points—versus a 20-point Conservative lead among those who say cost of living is paramount. This reveals a stark fault line: voters outraged or alarmed by Trump lean heavily Liberal, while those who see inflation and affordability as top-of-mind lean Conservative.
Carney vs. Poilievre: Who Would You Prefer?
Though the Conservatives lead narrowly in overall vote intention, Mark Carney leads by four points (38% to 34%) when Canadians are asked which leader they’d like to see as Prime Minister. Regionally, Carney leads everywhere except the Prairies, and is tied with Poilievre in Ontario and BC—two critical battlegrounds. When asked to choose strictly between Carney and Poilievre, Canadians opt for Carney by a margin of 56% to 44%. In Quebec, that edge is even wider, with 77% of BQ voters preferring Carney over Poilievre, while 81% of NDP voters nationwide say the same.
On specific policy files, Carney is clearly seen as stronger on matters like handling Ukraine, climate change, international affairs, and specifically dealing with Trump. Poilievre commands an advantage on cost of living and housing, two areas that poll as the top concerns driving voter decisions this election. Singh doesn’t lead on any issue, though some voters still see him as an advocate on social services and housing.
The Upshot: A Close, Competitive Contest
A Narrow Race: Despite the Conservatives’ lead in the top-line numbers, the Liberals have gained dramatically in key regions—enough to make Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada effectively toss-ups and to give a seat advantage to the Liberals.
Engaged Liberals: Among those most certain to vote, the race is now almost tied, suggesting the Liberals’ base is as energized as, if not more energized than, the Conservatives.
NDP Slippage: The NDP is slipping to historic lows for Jagmeet Singh, with a significant share of that vote flowing to the Liberals—and some to the Conservatives. More than half of remaining NDP supporters say they could still change their minds, pointing to potential further declines if the campaign breaks against them.
Where Does the Race Go From Here?: For Carney, the biggest challenge is that 57% of Canadians say they definitely want a change in government—but so far, that sentiment is not exclusively consolidating around the Conservatives. Carney’s strongest card appears to be the Trump factor, along with his net-favourable leadership advantage. The question is whether cost-of-living anxieties or anti-Trump sentiments win out.
Conservative Path to Victory: Poilievre must rally those who want change, focus relentlessly on affordability and housing, and prevent the ballot question from drifting to Trump or foreign policy, where Carney has the edge. A sharper contrast on “time for a change” could still tip the balance in key ridings.
Liberals’ Potential: If the narrative continues to highlight Trump’s unpopularity, the desire for stability, and Carney’s perceived strengths, the Liberals may further erode both NDP and Conservative support.
Ultimately, it’s a razor-thin contest and one right now that seems to favour the Liberals. It’s Trump vs. change and a fight to set the ballot question. As Canadians gear up for a campaign that will launch within hours, the stakes are already high, voter engagement is much higher than at the start of the last election and the leadership dynamic is quite different than just a few months ago. A Prime Minister who remains less well-known than the Leader of the Opposition is a testament to just how unpredictable this election may be. Will Canadians focus on changing the government or protecting the country from Trump’s influence? We’re about to find out.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians eligible to vote from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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