Abacus Data Poll: Liberals take lead for the first time in years.
March 27, 2025
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls.
Liberals take a numerical lead for the first time since 2022.
If the election was held today, we see the Liberals opening up a 1-point lead over the Conservatives among all committed voters. 38% would vote Liberal compared with 37% who would vote Conservative. The NDP is down again in third at 11% Since last week, the Conservatives are down 2, the Liberals are up 2 and the NDP is down 1.
Regionally, the Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in B.C., the Liberals now lead in Ontario (by 4), the Liberals lead by 12 in Quebec and by 9 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies.
Past Voters and Certainty to Vote
One really important shift is the growing number of previous Conservative Party voters who now say they will vote Liberal. 12% of past CPC voters say they would vote Liberal today. At the same time, 13% of past Liberal voters say they will vote Conservative.
But it’s the NDP numbers that are most revealing. More than half of past NDP voters say they are voting for another party or are undecided with 1 in 4 (26%) saying they will vote Liberal and 12% saying they will vote Conservative.
Among those most certain to vote, the Liberal lead grows to 3 points (40% to 37%) with the NDP falling 10%.
For the first time in our tracking, more Canadians now believe the Liberals will win the next election than do who think the Conservatives will.
What is Driving This?
Below the horse race, there are some fascinating and important shifts happening.
For example, when it comes to the federal government’s approval rating, there has been a complete reset of impressions. Today 41% approve of the Carney government’s performance compared with 25% who disapprove. Just look at the shift in only a matter of weeks.
Feelings about Carney: Views about Liberal Leader Mark Carney are largely unchanged from last week. He has a net favourable impression of +11.
Feelings about Poilievre: Poilievre’s net impression stands at -5, a slight improvement from last week. 39% of Canadians have a positive view of Mr. Poilievre, only 2-points less than Mr. Carney.
Feelings about Jagmeet SIngh: Singh’s net impression is at -12, largely unchanged from last week. Mr. Singh remains the least popular of the three main party leaders in Canada.
Trump: Impressions Continue to Deteriorate
Views towards U.S. President Donald Trump continue to get worse. Today only 12% of Canadians have a positive view of President Trump compared with 78% who have a negative view – an all-time high. At -66, President Trump’s net favourable is worse than any we’ve measure for any political leader.
Of note, 63% of those with a positive view of Donald Trump would vote Conservative today. Another 8% would vote for the People’s Party.
The Upshot: Advantage Liberal
The Liberals have firmly taken pole position for the first time in years, and these new numbers reflect a broader shift that goes beyond a simple bump in the polls. Since Mark Carney took the reins, Canadians seem to have reset their impressions, putting Justin Trudeau firmly in the rearview mirror. There’s a sense that many voters have let go of lingering grievances tied to the old Liberal leadership, creating fresh space for Carney’s message to take root. Litigating the Trudeau era appears less and less effective as public attention pivots to where each party will lead us next—especially in the face of growing global volatility and threats posed by Donald Trump’s presidency.
Critically, the Liberals aren’t just ahead on vote intention; they’re also more likely to turn out at the ballot box, suggesting a real enthusiasm advantage. Carney himself is in positive territory, which underscores the importance of strong personal brands in rallying both committed supporters and swing voters. Meanwhile, the Conservative brand hasn’t imploded, but it’s taken hits in key regions and demographics. With so many Canadians eager to move beyond past baggage, it looks like the leaders who can convincingly paint a forward-looking picture—and speak directly to the challenges posed by Trump—will have the upper hand.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote from March 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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