Abacus Data Poll: Defining the ballot box question
March 25, 2025
With the election campaign now underway, one overarching question looms: is this a campaign about change and scarcity, or about security in a time of deep precarity?
Our latest polling points to a country wrestling with competing impulses—on one hand, a strong desire for a shift in direction; on the other, a fear of disruption in a period of uncertainty.
At the heart of these competing narratives is what voters identify as their top-of-mind issues. Topping the list, nearly half (45%) say that “Reducing your cost of living” is one of their two most important priorities. Next, a third (33%) highlight “Dealing with Donald Trump and the impact of his decisions,” suggesting that concerns about how American policy and political drama might spill over the border remain potent. “Improving Canada’s healthcare system” (20%), “Making housing more affordable” (19%), and “Growing the economy” (17%) round out the top five.
For many Canadians—especially those under 30—there is a clear sense that a rising cost of living and stagnant wages form a backdrop of scarcity. Among younger Canadians (18–29), 47% pick “cost of living” as a prime concern, while affordable housing also ranks high (28%), reflecting the squeezed conditions of those trying to find their footing in major urban centres. They are also 10-points more likely to rate the economy as a top issue than those over 60. By contrast, older Canadians (60 and over) remain attuned to both cost of living (38%), healthcare (27%) and the implications of Donald Trump (50%), particularly worries about threats to Canadian soverignty.
When we break it down by age and gender, we see further nuance. Younger women (18–44) are among the most likely to emphasize both affordability (53%) and healthcare improvements (22%). Meanwhile, older men and women (45+) are more inclined than their younger counterparts to choose “Dealing with Donald Trump” as a key factor. These gaps underscore how age and personal circumstances shape what feels urgent or potentially disruptive.
This tension between change and security is reflected in how respondents view the idea of keeping Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals in power. A solid majority (57%) say “it is definitely time for a change in government,” with another 15% saying change would be nice but not paramount. Only about one in five (21%) strongly favours re-electing Carney, suggesting the Liberals face an uphill battle to convince Canadians that continuity is preferable to starting fresh.
Yet the vote intentions reveal a split anchored largely in the issues people care about most. Of those who prioritize “Reducing your cost of living,” nearly half (46%) lean Conservative, whereas 27% lean Liberal and 15% back the NDP. But for those who say “Dealing with Donald Trump” is paramount, over half (54%) indicate they’d vote Liberal, compared to only 26% Conservative. Among Canadians who focus on “Growing the economy,” the divide is similarly stark: 54% go Conservative, with 30% Liberal.
Put simply, if the ballot question becomes “Is your life getting more expensive, and do we need a fundamental change to fix it?” Conservatives and Poilievre win. If the question shifts to “Do we need a steady hand to protect Canada from Trump’s unpredictability (and the risks beyond our borders)?” then I think Liberals and Carney win.
In these early days of the campaign, each party will try to define the core issue. The Conservatives will hammer away on cost-of-living pressures, taxes, and economic frustrations, framing the election as a chance to uproot a tired government and restore a sense of fiscal and economic sanity.
Liberals, in turn, will invite Canadians to consider whether they can trust a change to an unproven leader (versus their experienced one) amidst the volatility of a revived Trump-era politics. For many, it comes down to whether the anxiety they feel is best addressed by turning the page—or by holding tightly to what they know in hopes of ensuring security in a time of global precarity.
This tug-of-war—change and scarcity vs. security and precarity—will shape the next few weeks of the campaign. Later this week, my colleague Eddie Sheppard and I will share some new data and analysis on the relationship between having a precarity mindset and vote.
As this data suggests, neither message is guaranteed to prevail. Canadians are listening carefully, weighing their personal experiences against the broader political climate, and looking for leadership that can both contain the everyday pressures at home and confront the potential tumult brewing beyond our borders.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians eligible to vote from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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