Abacus Data: Our Final Poll of the Campaign
April 27, 2025
Tomorrow is Election Day in Canada. Months ago, the outcome looked fairly certain – a Conservative victory. But today, as we release our final poll of the campaign, it looks like the Liberals are now the favourites to pull off a fourth straight victory under the leadership of Mark Carney.
After 40 turbulent days, Canada’s 45th general election comes down to one simple question: will voters choose the reassurance of Mark Carney’s steady-as-she-goes Liberal reset, or the Pierre Poilievre promises after a decade of Liberal rule? What began in January as a lock for the Conservatives was upended by Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Carney’s lightning-fast coronation, and Donald Trump’s return to the White House with threats of annexation and trade war. Suddenly “change vs. continuity” became “stability vs. disruption,” and the ballot box psychology flipped from scarcity-driven anger to precarity-tinged caution.
Since February our team has interviewed more than 15,000 Canadians, probing not just vote intent but the emotions beneath it. We built a Precarity Index, ran nightly regressions, flash-polled the debates, and mapped how trust, competence, and fear intersect. Each wave has pointed to the same tension: a majority still longs for change, yet a plurality doubts that the riskier option will deliver it.
Today we release our final poll—2,500 interviews conducted April 24-27, the largest sample of the campaign—using the likely-voter model that nailed Nova Scotia in 2024 and Ontario just a few months ago. It offers the clearest picture yet of where Canada stands on the eve of decision day, and why.
The Context
Canadians approach tomorrow’s vote with a pervasive sense of unease. Only 31 per cent say the country is headed in the right direction, while 51 per cent believe we’re on the wrong track; sentiment about the wider world is even darker (14 per cent right direction, 73 per cent wrong).
Over the campaign, however, both main parties have sustained unusually wide paths to victory. The Liberal accessible universe has climbed from the mid-40s in January to 53 per cent today (although lower than its peak mid-campaign at 57%, edging out the Conservatives at 50 per cent, after the Tory pool slid back a few points from its early-January high of roughly 55 per cent.
The Issues
Pocket-book pain still rules the ballot box. Nearly half of Canadians (45%) rank “reducing your cost of living” among their two decisive issues, up three points in a fortnight. “Dealing with Donald Trump and the impact of his decisions” follows at 30 per cent, while housing (20%), economic growth (19%) and healthcare (18%) round out the top tier.
But the mix shifts sharply by generation: cost of living dominates for every age group, yet Trump anxiety rises from just 18 per cent among 18- to 29-year-olds to 45 per cent among voters 60-plus, while concern about housing falls from 36 percent in Gen Z to 11 per cent in Boomers.
On issue ownership, Mark Carney’s Liberals retain a double-digit edge where geopolitics meet security—Trump (+11), representing Canada abroad (+10), supporting Ukraine (+12). Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives win the pocket-book fight: cost of living (+10), housing (+9), deficit control (+2) and “making Canada a better place to live” (+3).
Health-care stewardship and public-service protection are essentially dead heats with the NDP performing best on those – and explaining Jagmeet Singh’s desire to focus the election on healthcare. All this underscores why tomorrow’s verdict will hinge on which frame—global risk or household squeeze—voters feel most acutely in the voting booth.
The Ballot Questions
I’ve argued throughout this campaign that this has been one election with two ballot questions: dealing with Trump and his policies and change.
A month ago the ballot was a referendum on Donald Trump; it’s pretty near an even split between Trump and change.
At the end of March, 54 % of Canadians said managing Trump would steer their vote, versus 46 % who cared more about a change in direction. Four weekly waves later the lines crossed decisively: 56 % now centre their choice on change, just 44 % on Trump. As the campaign ends, 53% say the vote is more about change compared with 47% who say it’s more about Trump.
Region and generation shape that split. Prairie and Alberta voters are the most change-hungry (63% in Alberta, 58% in SK/MB), while Quebec remains the lone region where a slim majority (57%) still prioritises Trump.
Younger Canadians tilt heavily to change (57% among 18-29s), but Boomers lean towards Trump (56%). Partisanship locks in the frame: 75% of Conservative supporters view the election through a change lens, whereas 68% of Liberals see it through a Trump lens.
The consequence is stark: Trump-focused voters break Liberal 58-21, while change-focused voters lean Conservative 55-23—explaining both the tightening race and why neither side can yet claim victory.
The Party Leaders
Mark Carney closes the campaign as the only major leader with a net-positive brand: 46 per cent hold a favourable view of him versus 33 per cent unfavourable—a +12 margin that has climbed steadily from +5 in mid-March. The arc matters. Carney started the year an unknown quantity (19% positive) but has converted the introduction into trust, especially among older voters and swing Liberals.
Pierre Poilievre’s numbers look softer on paper (41% positive, 44 % negative, net –3) yet they, too, reflect progress and resilience. Six weeks ago his negatives out-paced his positives by almost double digits; today the gap has narrowed to single digits and, crucially, he matches Carney on intensity—Conservative supporters like him as strongly as Liberal supporters like Carney.
Jagmeet Singh ends in familiar territory (31% positive, 40% negative), a flat line that underscores why the NDP vote never broke out.
Stacked beside Donald Trump, the contrast is stark. Only 11 per cent of Canadians view the U.S. President favourably, while 77 per cent hold an unfavourable opinion—net –66. Trump remains the great unifier … in the negative sense. His toxicity provides the backdrop for Carney’s “steady hand” narrative and complicates Poilievre’s ability to fully close the deal with centrists.
Asked directly who they would prefer as Prime Minister, 40 per cent choose Carney, 37 per cent Poilievre, and 10 per cent Singh. This is the closest measure on preferred PM that we’ve measured since March.
The attributes we’ve tracked explain the gap: Carney leads Poilievre by 5–12 points on finding common ground, standing up to a bully, and captaining a ship through a rough storm. Poilievre edges ahead only on the more literal, hands-on tasks of putting out a kitchen fire and putting up a shelf. In short, Canadians see Carney as the problem-solver in choppy seas, while Poilievre is viewed as the change agent better with a hammer—an image that helps but hasn’t yet proven decisive.
Expectations on the Outcome
Voters see tomorrow tilting red, but not by a landslide. Today, nearly half (48 per cent) predict a Liberal victory, versus 34 per cent who bet on the Conservatives and just 4 per cent on the NDP; 15 per cent remain unsure.
A month-long swing underlies that headline. In mid-February, fully 52 per cent thought Poilievre would win and only 20 per cent named the Liberals. Confidence flipped through March as Carney’s brand firmed up and the race tightened.
Asked another way, 33 per cent expect a “close Liberal win,” 14 per cent foresee a Liberal romp, while just 27 per cent see any flavour of Conservative win with 15% thinking calling it too close to call.
What is the Central Argument of the Political Parties?
Asked to pinpoint each party’s “central argument,” voters see a far clearer through-line on the Liberal side. Fully 37% say the Liberals’ pitch is that they’re “the only party that can stand up to Donald Trump and protect Canada.” That message is backed by a smaller but coherent second tier—“restore stability and competence” (13%) and “take Canada in a bild new direction” (13%). 41% of Liberal voters say the core message of the campaign for the Liberals has been standing up to Trump. 15% says its about restoring stability.
By contrast, Conservatives present a more diffuse narrative. Their leading theme—“take Canada in a bold new direction”—registers with just 21% of voters, followed closely by “be change to Canada and restore the country’s promise (17%), “clean up corruption/fix a broken system” (16%), and “serious plan to make life more affordable” (15%). Conservative supporters also split on what the core message is from affordability (23%) to restoring the country’s promise (19%) to fixing a broken system (14%).
The Vote
Our final likely-voter model—including only Canadians who say they have already voted in an advance poll or are almost certain to cast a ballot tomorrow—puts the Liberals at 41%, the Conservatives at 39%, the NDP at 10%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the People’s Party at 3 %, and the Greens at 1%. Compared with our April 21 wave, the Liberal share has slipped a point while the Conservatives have gained two, leaving the minor parties unchanged.
The trajectory chart tells the story: since mid-March, support for the two front-runners has oscillated within a five-point band, with the lead trading hands twice. Carney’s Liberals peaked at 44% during the April 10-25 window and have drifted back three points. Poilievre’s Conservatives bottomed out at 37% a week ago and have clawed two points back to 39%. The NDP recovered from an early-April swoon (8%) to finish at its campaign average of 10%. In effect, late movers nudged the race from a potential Liberal majority to what now looks like a fight between the two.
Regional battlegrounds
Ontario remains the Liberal firewall but things have tightened there: 45% LPC, 42% CPC, 7% NDP
British Columbia is the mirror image: 40% CPC, 38% LPC, 17% NDP—margin-of-error stuff with some three-way seat splits likely.
Quebec shows the Bloc parked at 29%, ten points behind the Liberals at 39%, and Conservatives stuck at 20%.
Atlantic Canada delivers the Liberals their widest margin (56% vs. 37%).
The Prairies do the same for Conservatives: Alberta 58% CPC, Saskatchewan–Manitoba 47% CPC, though Liberals post competitive 19% and 39% respectively, enough to hold and maybe gain some urban seats.
Demographic cross-currents
Age tells two stories. Voters 18-29 break Liberal 46% to 32% (there is a big difference between likely and all eligible voters by age), 30-44 voters split almost evenly (40% CPC, 38% LPC). Middle-aged Canadians 45-59 give the Conservatives their best age margin (42% vs. 33% LPC), but the 60+ cohort swings back convincingly to the Liberals (46% vs. 38%) —critical, given Baby Boomers’ superior turnout.
A persistent gender gap underpins the topline: men prefer Conservatives 43-38, while women prefer Liberals 43-35. Education pulls the parties in opposite directions: Conservatives lead by ten among high-school-only voters (43-33) but trail by twelve among university graduates (35-47).
Where the 2021 coalitions have leaked
Vote retention analysis captures the churn. Eighty-five percent of 2021 Conservatives remain loyal, but 13% have crossed to the Liberals. Liberals hold 79% of their 2021 base and import fully 41% of past NDP voters—an orange-to-red flow that offsets modest erosion to the Conservatives (11%). Only 47 % of 2021 NDP voters stick with Singh.
Why the two-point gap feels bigger on the map
Because Conservative gains are front-loaded in Alberta and the rural Prairies, each additional popular-vote point buys fewer new seats. Liberal support, by contrast, is cost-effective in suburban Ontario, francophone Quebec, and vote-efficient Atlantic ridings.
What could still move
If voter turnout turns out to be higher than we expect (around 70%), then that could help the Conservatives but only be a small margin. Turnout estimates by age, according to our data, are:
18 to 29: 43%
30 to 44: 64%
45 to 59: 75%
60+: 85%
Among those who haven’t voted in an advance poll or are unlikely to vote tomorrow, the vote intention would be: Conservative 39%, Liberal 37%, NDP 11, BQ 5%, GPC 4%.
The Upshot
Barring a late-night plot twist, the numbers point to a fourth Liberal mandate. Their two-point popular-vote edge, coupled with vote-efficient leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, puts a Carney government squarely in the driver’s seat—and a majority is a live possibility. Still, the race has tightened just enough in the closing week that a minority can’t be ruled out. If a handful of 905, Lower Mainland, or suburban Winnipeg ridings wobble, 170 seats suddenly looks a taller climb.
What could shift it? Turnout. Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s. If we’re low—say it pushes well north of 70%—that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37. In other words, an unexpected surge of younger and less certain voters would give Poilievre his best (and perhaps only) path to plurality territory.
So watch two things Monday night: advance-vote ridings the Liberals need to hold, and raw turnout levels. If participation tracks 2021 levels, expect a red map and a re-elected Prime Minister Carney before midnight. If the lines outside polling stations are longer than usual—especially in B.C. and the GTAs—this cliff-hanger could run even later than the broadcasters planned.
Tune into CBC tomorrow. I’ll be joining Front Burner podcast host Jayme Poisson and friends to dig into the elections biggest moments, watch the results, and have some fun. Bookmark this link.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,500 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 24 to 27, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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