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The Path to 2019: Women and the Liberal Vote

February 26, 2018

By David Coletto

Tomorrow, Finance Minister Bill Morneau will deliver the Liberal government’s third budget. It is reportedly going to focus on improving the economic success of women and promoting gender equality.

There are important policy reasons for this focus. But political ones as well.

Consider these three stats:

Women made up 52.4% of the electorate in 2015. Over 9.2 million Canadian women voted in the last federal election.

According to our 2015 post-election survey, the Liberals won by 17-points among women compared with 6-points among men.

Perhaps more important, their gap over the Conservatives was even larger among younger women. In 2015, they were competing against the NDP among women under 45 and with the Conservatives among women 45 and over.

Don’t underestimate the Liberal Party and Prime Minister Trudeau’s connection to this group and the government’s efforts to pursue a social and economic agenda targeting them.  This data suggests why efforts to mobilize turnout and protect share from the NDP and Conservatives are critically important for Liberal re-election in 2019.


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