A Throne Speech Meets a Distracted Public. Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck.
December 1, 2021
We completed a national survey of 2,025 Canadian adults from November 25 to 30, 2021. Here’s a snapshot of our findings.
SPEECH FROM THE THRONE
One in three people didn’t know there was a Speech from the Throne, and another half only heard about it. Fewer than one in five people said they were familiar with what was contained in the Speech.
Among those who were at least aware there was a Throne Speech, 61% felt it was a good direction for Canadian public policy for the coming years. Those more familiar and those who only heard there was a Speech were similarly positively predisposed.
86% of 2021 Liberal voters thought the Throne Speech outlined a good direction for the country as did 66% of NDP and 52% of Green Party voters. Half of BQ voters (51%) thought it laid out a good direction for the country while 1 in 3 Conservative voters felt the same thing.
When asked whether the opposition parties should vote for or against the Speech from the Throne, even if it triggers an election:
- 48% want Conservative MPs to vote in favour and 52% want them to vote against the Throne Speech. 63% of CPC voters want them to vote against as do 37% of Liberal voters and 48% of NDP voters.
- 57% want NDP MPs to vote in favour and 43% want them to vote against it with 74% of LPC, 69% of NDP and 40% of CPC voters wanting them to vote for it.
- 48% want BQ MPs to vote in favour and 52% want them to vote against with 60% of BQ voters 66% of LPC voters, 54% of NDP voters, and 29% of CPC voters wanting them to vote in favour. 60% of Quebecers want BQ MPs to vote in favour of the Throne Speech.
PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Equal numbers feel things in Canada are headed in the right direction (42%) than those who feel it is off on the wrong track (43%). This is unchanged from October despite the increased worry about Covid-19 which we reported yesterday. Canadians continue to be far more bearish on how things are going around the world or in the US.
Slightly more approve (44%) than disapprove (41%) of the federal government, slightly improved from our measurement in October. The Trudeau government’s net approval (approve – disapprove) regionally is -2 in BC, -29 in Alberta, -12 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +12 in Ontario, +10 in Quebec, and +15 in Atlantic Canada.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -1. This is unchanged from October.
Today 23% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole while his negatives are at 45% for a net score of -22. His numbers are also unchanged from October.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 42% and finds negative impressions among 23% for a net score of +19, also similar to our results in October.
In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 40% positive and 30% negative for a net score of +10. Mr. Trudeau is +8 and Mr. O’Toole is -22 in Quebec.
VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 32% of the vote (in line with the 2021 election share), the Conservatives would win 30% (4-points lower) and the NDP 20% (2-points higher). The BQ is at 8% nationally while the People’s Party is at 6% and the Greens at 3%.
- BC: a three-way race with the Liberals at 32%, the NDP at 30%, and Conservatives at 30%.
- Alberta: 56% would vote Conservative compared with 18% for the NDP, 14% for the Liberal Party, and 10% for the People’s Party.
- Manitoba and Saskatchewan: the Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the NDP at 27% and the Liberals at 21%.
- Ontario: the Liberals have a 6-point lead over the Conservatives (37% to 31%) with the NDP in third at 22%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario.
- Quebec: we see the BQ slightly ahead of the Liberals (37% to 33%) with the Conservatives at 15% and the NDP at 8%.
- Atlantic: the Liberal lead by 11 over the Conservatives – 38% to 27% with the NDP at 22%.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “The gulf between those who follow politics and everyone else has been widening over time, and more and more people seem to be on the indifferent and inattentive side of the divide. Given the pandemic, it’s also true that people are very focused on the immediate and the risks of Covid being prolonged. Politics matters little, and public policy matters first and foremost on the issues that are deeply and urgently preoccupying.
These findings suggest the Liberals neither gained nor lost any political ground based on their Throne Speech. The only other material political finding may be that the People’s Party is a bigger political force than the Green Party. Environmentally concerned voters seem inclined to look to other parties to meet their expectations and goals. And the challenge confronting the conservative movement in Canada is no less visible – if anything even more so. “
According to David Coletto: “The Speech from the Throne neither lifted nor hurt the federal government’s approval rating or the Liberal vote share. This month’s political snapshot looks very much like it did at the end of October. The Liberals and Conservatives remain close in vote intentions, although the Conservatives are still 4-points off their 2021 result, and the government’s approval rating remains relatively positive.
I suspect politics is the furthest thing from people’s minds right now as BC and Atlantic Canada deal with flooding and the entire county waits to see whether Omicron is going buffer hopes of this pandemic ending.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,025 Canadian adults from November 25 to 30, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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