Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs ahead of Crombie Liberals by 16
From April 11 to 16, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 995 Ontario adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explored perceptions about Doug Ford’s government along with our usual trackers.
This survey was done entirely after the provincial budget released on March 26 and is a good test of the impact that it and other decisions since then have had on public opinion in the province.
We begin by examining the current political landscape in Ontario.
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs lead by 14 percentage points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC with the Ontario Liberals at 25%, the Ontario NDP at 21%, and the Greens at 7%.
All of these results are consistent with what we found last month and all change is within the margin of error of the survey.
Regionally, the PCs lead in every region of the province. They are ahead by 16 in Toronto, 12 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 29 in eastern Ontario. The increase in support in Eastern Ontario could be related to the recent announcement of a new deal with the City of Ottawa.
The PCs also lead among men (by 24) and women (by 7) and across every age group. Over time, we have noticed that the PCs have become more popular among younger Ontarians. This mimics what we have seen at the national level with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and something we think is directly tied to the popularity of Poilievre among younger Ontarians.
When it comes to the Ford government overall, 1 in 3 Ontarians approve of the government’s job performance while 43% disapprove. This is largely unchanged from last month.
Impressions of the four main party leaders are stable since last month. 1 in 3 have a favourable view of Premier Ford compared with 42% who have a negative impression for a net score of -7 slightly improved from last month.
Marit Stiles has a net score of +1, while Bonnie Crombie is -4 with 28% positive and 32% negative a slightly deterioration in views towards her.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Little has changed in public opinion in Ontario since the provincial budget was released on March 26. The Ford PCs continue to have a sizeable lead over the Crombie Liberals and Stiles NDP. While the provincial government’s approval rating is that high (it is six points higher than the federal Liberal government is nationally), it hasn’t impacted people’s vote intention at the moment.
Ford is relatively popular for an incumbent in their sixth year in office and having to manage the impact of inflation and the housing crisis. He is still an asset to his party as his personal popularity is greater than his government’s approval rating.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 995 Ontario adults from April 11 to 16, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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