Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck as the race to 2019 takes shape

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto With a little over a year to go before the start of the 2019 federal election, we polled 2,000 Canadian adults last week about how they are seeing their political choices. Here are the highlights as we see them: THE SITUATION TODAY Today, 43% say they would prefer to

Canadians mad at Trump tariffs; support retaliation. Millions want to do their own part.

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto The decision by US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum has caught public attention in Canada in a way that few trade issues ever have – and Canadians are mad. 58% strongly oppose Mr. Trump’s action against Canada and another 21% oppose the US

Liberal support sags as PM’s image softens. His India trip hurt.

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto The results of our latest survey (February 23rd to March 4th, sample of 4,023 across Canada) reveals that the Liberal Party has seen its support drop to 36%, the lowest we have measured since the election in 2015. The Conservatives are close behind with 33% followed by the NDP

The Path to 2019: Women and the Liberal Vote

By David Coletto Tomorrow, Finance Minister Bill Morneau will deliver the Liberal government’s third budget. It is reportedly going to focus on improving the economic success of women and promoting gender equality. There are important policy reasons for this focus. But political ones as well. Consider these three stats: Women made up 52.4% of the

The next 10%: Reflections and data on how the Conservatives can grow.

By David Coletto On Friday, I participated in a panel discussion at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa. The title of the panel was Spotlight on The Next 10% and we discussed how the federal Conservative Party might grow towards winning the next election in 2019. In preparing for that panel, I had a quick

Liberals maintain lead over Conservatives

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto In our first survey of 2018, the Liberals have the support of 39% of decided voters compared with 32% for the Conservatives and 18% for the NDP. The Liberals have a 3-point lead in Ontario, a 25-point lead in Quebec, and a 6-point lead in BC. In November, we

Liberal slippage halts with an uptick on some key indicators

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto Last month we saw a four-point slip in Liberal Party support; in our latest survey the Liberals have stabilized and would win 40% support today. The Conservatives are at 32%. Both these numbers are identical to the results last election Day in 2015. In the three seat richest provinces,

Canadian Politics Update: A more competitive political landscape

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto Over the late summer, Canada’s political situation became more competitive, as Liberal Party support dipped, and the Conservatives saw gains. Today, an election would see 39% vote Liberal, 35% Conservative and 15% NDP. The biggest regional races show a dead heat in Ontario, a narrowing Liberal lead in BC,

Liberal Support Holds with Improving Economic Mood

By Bruce Anderson and David Coletto Across the country, 43% say they would vote Liberal if a federal election were held today, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives (31%), and 27 points ahead of the NDP (16%).   In Ontario, the Liberals hold a 6-point advantage over the Conservatives, in BC, their lead is 13. 

The numbers don’t lie. The Conservatives have a Millennial problem they have to deal with.

By David Coletto As the Conservative Party is set to announce its second leader in the party’s short history (since merging the PC Party and Canadian Alliance), a lot of the debate within the party and among commentators has been about how the party needs to engage with and appeal to Millennial voters. I crunched some

Good decisions require good data.