BC NDP leads by 18 as BC United fall well behind BC Conservatives
From November 22 to 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 BC adults exploring their views on provincial politics and government. This survey was part of a special provincial Omnibus survey.
If an election was held at the time of the survey, the BC NDP would likely win another large majority government. The BC NDP has the support of 44% of committed voters, a four point drop from its 2020 election tally. The BC Conservatives are second with 26% followed by the official opposition BC United at 17%. Compared with the 2020 provincial election, the BC Conservatives led by John Rustad are up 24-points while BC United (previously known as the BC Liberal Party) is down 17-points. The BC Greens are at 9%, down 6-points since the election.
Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 22-points in Metro Vancouver, by 27-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and North.
Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. The BC Conservatives do 12-points better among younger BCers than older ones.
The BC NDP leads by 24 among women (49% to 25% for the BC Conservatives) and 12-points among men (40% to 28% for the BC Conservatives).
Why is the NDP and Premier David Eby in such a dominant position?
British Columbians are generally more optimistic about the direction of their province than Canadians in other provinces. In our survey, 34% of British Columbians feel the province is headed in the right direction which is 10-points higher than a recent survey we did in Ontario and 11-points higher than how Canadians feel about their own country.
At the same time, the Eby government’s approval rating is net positive. 36% approve while 27% disapprove. Another 27% say they neither approve nor disapprove of the government’s performance.
In terms of leader impressions, Premier Eby is by far the most popular provincial party leader. 39% have a positive impression while 25% have a negative view. In comparison, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon is net -10 with 20% positive and 30% negative. BC Greens Leader Sonia Fursteanu is even with 23% positive and 23% negative while BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is -2 with 25% positive and 27% negative. Both Rustad and Furstenau are both less well known that Eby or Falcon.
Finally, when we ask people to rate the top two issues they want the provincial government to most prioritize, 54% select the rising cost of living, 37% want the focus to be on housing while 31% select improving the healthcare system.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data founder, Chair & CEO, David Coletto: So far, the Eby NDP government has been ammune to the inflationitis that has inflicted by the federal government and several provincial governments across the country. The Premier is both well liked and his government is seen as performing relatively well. With a divided opposition, including a very weak Official Opposition in the BC United, the BC NDP are well positioned for the provincial election in 2024.
Support for the BC Conservatives has shot up quickly given the party received only 2% of the vote in the 2020 provincial election. The BC Greens are also under pressure having lost more than a third of its past support.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults (18+) living in British Columbia from November 22 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched BC’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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