A message from Abacus Data Chair and CEO, David Coletto
As we usher in the new year of 2024, it is with immense pleasure and anticipation that I announce the appointment of Ihor Korbabicz as the President of our fast-growing and highly sought after market and public opinion research company.
Ihor first joined Team Abacus Data in July 2017 as Director of Operations, and since then, his journey has been nothing short of extraordinary. His dedication and expertise earned him multiple promotions, most recently serving as Executive Vice President. In his new role as President, Ihor will continue his pivotal work as the lead consultant for many of our valued clients.
His expanded responsibilities include overseeing the day-to-day operations of Abacus Data, spanning from consulting and fieldwork to analysis and administration. Ihor will play a crucial role in implementing the vision and strategy I have set for Abacus Data, ensuring our continued growth and success.
With Ihor taking on his new role, I will be free to maintain active involvement in various research projects and dedicate more time to boosting business development, strategic partnerships, and growth. My focus will also include managing our content development including our publicly released research on how Canadians and Americans think, feel, and behave in the political, labour, and consumer markets.
I’m excited for what is coming in 2024.
David Coletto Chair & CEO
Quotes:
From David Coletto: “Ihor’s ascent to the role of President is a testament to his remarkable talent and unwavering commitment to Abacus Data. His innovative approach and profound understanding of market research have been invaluable. I am confident that under his leadership, Abacus Data will scale new heights and continue to thrive.”
From Ihor Korbabicz: “It is an exciting time to step into the role of President at Abacus Data. David has established a best-in-class, influential research firm enjoying an explosive trajectory. It is a great privilege to help shepherd our talented team through to its next stage of growth.
About Abacus Data: Abacus Data is a leading polling and market research firm with offices in Ottawa and Toronto and clients throughout North America. Known for its innovative approach and in-depth analysis, Abacus Data specializes in providing insightful market research and consulting services, helping clients understand the ever-evolving landscapes of public opinion and market trends. Its commitment to excellence has made it a trusted name in the industry, both in Canada and beyond.
The Abacus Data poll for the Star found a majority of respondents think the premier, scion of a rich family, is “wealthy” and “cares more about helping his friends.”
Back in April, I conducted a survey asking Canadians about their expectations and desires for a hypothetical Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre. Recently, I revisited these questions in our latest Abacus Data survey. I think these questions can help us understand whether the Conservatives have been successful at setting the agenda, whether its larger coalition today is fundamentally different than the smaller one last spring, and what the Liberals might need to do to make the Conservative seem unacceptable to more people.
The results are quite telling.
First, few Canadians are certain that a Conservative government would do any of the things we tested but they are more certain than anything else they will eliminate the national carbon tax. The connection between the Conservative Party and eliminating the carbon tax is deep.
Secondly, the public’s perception of what a Poilievre-led government would or wouldn’t do has remained relatively stable, with a few notable exceptions. There’s been a significant increase in the belief that such a government would eliminate the carbon tax (+14 points), make housing more affordable (+9 points), cut taxes (+6 points), and take climate change seriously (+5 points). The substantial shifts in opinions on the carbon tax and housing affordability underscore the effective messaging and focus of the Conservatives and Poilievre on these issues since Poilievre assumed leadership of the Conservatives.
However, when exploring what Canadians think a Poilievre government should do, the picture becomes more complex, especially when considering the current broader Conservative coalition compared to its state in April.
First, the most popular ideas where a clear majority of Canadians want a Conservative government to act on are making housing more affordable, taking climate change seriously, cutting personal taxes, eliminating the carbon tax, and balancing the federal budget.
There is little appetite for ending the national childcare or dental care programs, for limiting access to abortion, or to cutting all public funding to the English-language CBC.
Overall, changes in public opinion have been minimal. Most Canadians don’t want cuts in childcare or dental care. A sizeable minority (about 40%) favors cutting funding to the English CBC, while the majority desire serious action on climate change, balanced budgets, and more affordable housing. Interestingly, there has been a 10-point increase in support for eliminating the carbon tax and a 14-point decrease in the desire to welcome as many immigrants as the Liberals.
The narrative becomes even more intriguing when we focus solely on current Conservative supporters. We observe significant drops in their support for ending national childcare, reducing abortion access, and cutting funding to English CBC. Conversely, there’s an uptick in the desire for a Conservative government to take climate change seriously.
This dichotomy within the Conservative base is noteworthy. While a vast majority (86%) of Conservative supporters advocate for eliminating the carbon tax, a similarly large proportion (78%) wants the party to take climate change seriously. This reflects that the carbon tax has been dislodged as an effective tool to reduce emissions in the minds of most people.
Moreover, the data highlights the difficulty the Conservative Party faces in maintaining its new, broader coalition. The priorities fervently supported by some or all of its traditional base—such as cutting CBC funding, ending national programs, and even restricting abortion access—are not in line with the preferences of a significant portion of its new, larger, less ideological supporter group.
Lastly, the shift in attitudes toward immigration is stark and demands more discussion. The proportion of people desiring a Conservative government to welcome as many immigrants as the Liberals plan to has dropped by 14 points since April.
In summary, these findings from our recent poll paint a nuanced picture of the evolving political landscape in Canada. They signal a complex balancing act for the Conservative Party as it navigates the diverse priorities of its expanded supporter base, while also reflecting broader shifts in public opinion on key policy issues. It also helps explain the drop in vote intentions we measured last week which, I believe, was a response by people to the Conservatives straying off message.
Implications for the Conservatives
The results from the latest poll present a unique challenge for the Conservative Party, particularly in terms of maintaining the integrity of their newly expanded coalition. This broader coalition, while a strategic asset in garnering more support, comes with the inherent risk of ideological inconsistency. Balancing the diverse and sometimes contradictory expectations of this coalition is a tightrope walk for the party leadership.
The central challenge lies in preventing fragmentation of their support base. On one end, there is a risk of leakage to the People’s Party, especially from those who strongly endorse more traditional conservative stances like cutting CBC funding or opposing national programs or want to see less support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia. On the other end, there’s the peril of losing newly gained centrist supporters, who may be more inclined towards moderate policies, particularly on issues like climate change and national programs like childcare or dental care.
Implications for the Liberal Party
The poll results offer a strategic roadmap for the Liberal Party as well. The findings suggest that the Liberals have not fully capitalized on defining what a Poilievre-led government would entail. Many Canadians remain uncertain or have only a superficial understanding of the Conservatives’ potential policy directions under Poilievre’s leadership. This gap presents an opportunity for the Liberals to reassert their narrative and rebuild their coalition.
The Liberals could focus on highlighting policy areas where Poilievre’s new supporters have reservations but currently do not believe the Conservatives will act upon. For example, emphasizing the Conservatives’ stance on issues like climate change, childcare, dentalcare, or the CBC. By drawing attention to these areas, the Liberals can aim to sway soft change voters back into their camp who might be concerned about the Conservative approach to these issues.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,919 Canadian adults from December 7 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From November 23 to 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,374 Canadians (18+). with current mortgages (fixed or variable) or who pay rent. The intent was to gauge the extent to which the housing crisis is influencing holiday plans and overall enjoyment among these Canadians.
As the financial landscape undergoes transformation, housing costs emerge as a pivotal factor not only in shaping current circumstances but also in influencing the outlook of many Canadians for the year ahead. This research provides valuable insights into how housing impacts budgets, long-term financial goals, and the holiday season.
Current Financial Strain
A significant revelation is that 42% of Canadians with a mortgage or rental payments are allocating 40% or more of their household income to housing expenses. This surpasses the recommended threshold set by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which advises that the gross debt service ratio—representing the percentage of income allocated to housing costs—should not exceed 39%.
Particularly noteworthy is the situation in British Columbia and Ontario, where approximately half of residents are grappling with this financial strain. The age factor adds another layer to this financial challenge, with Canadians aged 30-44 shouldering a substantial burden, as 49% allocate 40% or more of their monthly income to housing, compared to the 61% in the 60+ age group.
Holiday Budgets and Plans
The holiday season, traditionally a time of joy and celebration, is now tinged with financial concerns. A substantial 77% of Canadians state that their holiday budget has been impacted by housing payments. For 37% of them, this has resulted in a significant reduction in their holiday budget. Moreover, 80% note that their holiday plans have been affected, leading many to scale back on spending, alter activities, opt for low-cost celebrations, or eliminate holiday spending altogether.
The housing crisis is clearly impacting the holiday season, with 67% of Canadians with mortgage or rent payments reporting that it has affected their level of stress and overall enjoyment of the holiday season. The burden of housing costs not only weighs on the budget but also adds an emotional layer, highlighting the intricate interplay between economic challenges and the quality of life during what should be a joyous time of the year.
Looking Ahead to 2024
As Canadians look to the future, a mixed outlook emerges. A significant portion, nearly half (49%), voices apprehension regarding the forthcoming challenges associated with the housing crisis anticipated in 2024. These concerns underscore the gravity of the situation and the potential hurdles individuals foresee in their financial and personal lives. Conversely, 37% of Canadians maintain an optimistic stance, demonstrating a belief in their ability to surmount the challenges posed by the housing crisis.
The contrasting sentiments encapsulate the diverse perspectives and coping mechanisms Canadians are adopting as they prepare for the dynamic landscape of 2024, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address housing concerns and ensure a more secure outlook for Canadians.
The Upshot
As we continue to explore the impact of the housing crisis on Canadians, it’s clear that financial stress extends beyond numbers, affecting joyful moments, especially during the holidays. Many Canadians find their holiday budgets entangled with housing costs, leading to a significant cutback in festivities. The housing crisis has a notable impact on numerous Canadians, compelling them to modify their holiday plans and causing increased stress due to housing costs. This underscores how economic challenges cast a shadow on these special moments.
Looking ahead to 2024, a nuanced view emerges. Many express valid concerns about the challenges posed by the ongoing housing crisis, emphasizing the need for proactive measures. Yet, amidst these concerns, a resilient portion remains optimistic, illustrating a determination to overcome adversity and build a brighter financial future.
These findings emphasize the urgency for immediate action. Proactive measures are essential to address housing concerns and pave the way for a secure and optimistic future for all Canadians. It’s not just about finances; it’s a call to protect the well-being, joy, and hope that every Canadian deserves, regardless of economic challenges. Overcoming the housing crisis requires a collective effort, urgency, and a commitment to building a future where housing is affordable, available, and accessible for all Canadians. As families navigate the holiday season, the evident impact of the housing crisis underscores the need for comprehensive solutions to address immediate financial strain and enhance the overall well-being of individuals and communities.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,374 Canadian adults who have a mortgage/pay rent from November 23 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.65%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
The beginning of December is full of many predictable events. A drop in the weather, the first snowfall and the beginning of seasonal traditions. But for many women, it also means another job in their office job jar.
As part of the She/Her/Hers syndicated study Abacus Data The data below is from a survey of n=2,000 gen pop women in Canada and n=500 gen pop men.
In our inaugural She/Her/Hers study we asked women (and men) if they felt the division of certain tasks and opportunities in the workplace was gendered. For many, the answer is yes.
A third (36%) of working women say they are expected to take on more social responsibilities in their workplace than their male counterparts. This could include anything from planning after-work drinks, remembering and planning birthday celebrations and organizing the team holiday party.
The good news is women 18 to 29 are less likely than their older counterparts to feel these tasks are gendered.
Women aren’t the only ones noticing these imbalances in the workplace. A quarter of working men agree their female colleagues are being asked to take on this work far more often.
Assigning workplace responsibilities based on gender doesn’t just impact workload. It also impacts opportunities and experiences available to women in the workplace, particularly opportunities associated with advancing careers.
Based on the data collected in the She/Her/Hers survey, women who are asked to shoulder social responsibilities in their workplaces are also less likely to receive career supports compared to their male colleagues. They are less likely to receive constructive feedback focused on growth, less likely to receive professional development opportunities and more likely to get passed over for promotions and raises.
The Upshot
It’s one thing to take on tasks at work that you might enjoy, but it’s another to be expected to carry out certain tasks based on gender. Relying on women in the workplace to take charge of planning social responsibilities not only assigns them with a task unrelated to career growth, it also means they are less likely to receive opportunities that do help with growth.
Removing bias from roles and responsibilities in the workplace is one step towards leveling the playing field and achieving equality in the workplace.
She/Her/Hers is a research practice dedicated to exploring how the lived experiences of Canadians, their behaviours, and attitudes are gendered. The study explores a range of subject areas that inform what it’s like being a Canadian woman today – from home life, to work life, to finances, to consumer behaviour. To learn more about the study please reach out to: oksana@abacusdata.ca
To purchase the She/Her/Hers study please reach out to: yvonne@abacusdata.ca
Methodology
The survey was conducted with n=2,500 gen pop adults in Canada (including n=2000 women and n=500 men) from February 9th to 16th 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
The latest national poll from Abacus Data shows a drop in the Conservative Party’s lead over the governing Liberals. Conservatives lost 5 points, while the Liberals gained four points. CPAC’s Michel Serapio digs into the numbers with David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data.
From December 7 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,919 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Conservative lead over the Liberals drops to 10-points.
If an election were held today, 37% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 27%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 33% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are down 5 while the Liberals are up 4. This is a statistically significant shift in vote intentions since the end of November.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 10 in BC, and 9 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 8-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 5 over the Liberals with the Conservatives at 21%.
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Demographically, the Conservatives lead among those aged 30 and over. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the Conservatives, gaining 8-points among younger Canadians.
We find almost no difference in vote intention between men and women.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 50% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 4 since November 28) while 43% are open to voting Liberal (+1), 41% NDP, 28% for the Greens, and 19% for the People’s Party. In Quebec, 49% say they are open to voting BQ.
What explains the change in vote intention?
For there to be a 5-point drop in Conservative support and a 4-point rise in Liberal vote share, something must be happening around public opinion. The evidence from our survey suggests this shift is likely more about reaction to the Conservatives, and their decisions and behaviour over the past two weeks, than something the Liberals have been doing.
For example, we find that some core metrics for the Liberal government are largely unchanged. The mood of the country (direction of the country), the government’s approval rating, the desire for change, and the Prime Minister’s personal image are unchanged from last month.
But other indicators related to the Conservatives and their acceptability to some soft change voters seems to explain the drop.
First, negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre are up three points since the end of November. Today, 36% have a favourable view of Mr. Poilievre while 36% have a negative impression.
Second, as we’ve noted in the past, about 1 in 3 Canadians say they want a change in government but indicate feeling uncomfortable with any of the alternatives. This group has hovered around 32% of the electorate since July when we started asking this question.
But it’s the vote intention of this group that is important to assess.
Back in November, among this “soft change” group, the Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 28% among thise group. Today, the Liberals have opened up a 16-point lead, gaining 8-points in two weeks. Something happened over the past two weeks to push these soft change voters back into the Liberal camp.
Third, we also see evidence that the Liberals have rebuilt some of their past voter coalition. At the end of November, 58% of those who said they voted Liberal in 2021 said they would vote Liberal again. 17% would vote Conservative while 9% would vote NDP. Today, 66% of past Liberal voters say they would vote Liberal again and only 7% would defect to the Conservatives. That’s a 10-point drop in Liberal/Conservative switchers which is equalivent to 2% of the electorate or 3% of decided voters. This explains most of the growth in Liberal support.
Finally, we also see some evidence that the 2021 Conservative voter group may be fragmenting. At the end of November, 89% of past Conservative voters said they would vote Conservative again. Today, that number is down to 83%. That shift represents about 2% of decided voters and makes up the remainder of the Conservative drop.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “It appears that the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made themselves less acceptable to these past Liberal supporters over the past few weeks and may have even aliented a small portion of their own past supporters pushing most back into the Liberal fold.
While the Conservatives still hold a sizeable 10-point lead, the likelihood they win a majority government is now up in the air, if voter intentions as we measure them today were to materialize on election day.
The results are a reminder that the electorate is very much in flux and while the desire for change and general dissatisfaction with the Liberal government and Mr. Trudeau remains deeply problematic for the Liberals, the Conservatives cannot assume that voters are not also evaluating the alternatives. As I’ve said from day one, a desire for change is not always sufficient for a government to be defeated. Enough voters also need to feel comfortable with an alternative.
These results suggest the Conservatives may have taken a step backwards in their mission to win a majority government but the fundamental problems facing the Liberals still remain.”
Want to join our team or know someone should?
We are looking to fill two roles as our company grows rapidly.
The survey was conducted with 1,919 Canadian adults from December 7 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Justin Trudeau’s government has had to weather many storms over the last eight years.
The SNC-Lavalin controversy. An old yearbook photo with the prime minister in blackface. Multiple ethics violations. The COVID-19 pandemic.
But as the governing Liberals continue to slide in the polls, the slow-moving hurricane that may actually end up blowing them away appears to be the economy.
On behalf of Food, Health, and Consumer Products of Canada, Abacus Data conducted nationwide survey of Canadians’ views towards competition in the grocery retail market and the Grocery Code of Conduct. The survey was conducted November 23 to 28, 2023 with a representative sample of 2,417 Canadian adults.
7 in 10 Canadians believe a highly concentrated grocery market leads to higher grocery prices.
When Canadians are told that most Canadians buy groceries from one of five companies and these companies sell 80% of groceries in Canada, 74% believe this market concentration leads to higher prices. 13% think it leads to lower prices while 5% think it has no impact on prices.
This perception is consistent across Canada, across demographic groups, and by supporters of all the major political parties in Canada.
A Grocery Code of Conduct
Although most Canadians are unaware of efforts by industry to establish a Grocery Code of Conduct, most believe it is a good idea when they are informed about it.
68% of Canadians believe a Grocery Code of Conduct is a good idea while only 7% consider it a bad idea. 1 in 4 say they don’t have a clear view.
This view is shared by at least 60% of Canadians in every region of the country and by those from all age, gender, and household income groups. It’s also worth noting that a clear majority of Conservative Party, Liberal Party, and New Democratic Party supporters believe a Grocery Code of Conduct is a good idea and there is little resistance to the idea.
When told that not all major grocery retailers have agreed to abide by the code, 70% of Canadians would support the federal and provincial governments making it mandatory for all large grocery chains to follow the Grocery Code of Conduct.
This view is shared by 62% of Conservative Party supporters, 82% of Liberal Party supporters, and 76% of NDP supporters.
The Upshot
The cost of living has been the top issue of concern for Canadians for several years now. When we ask what is most likely keeping people up at night, rising prices, inflation, and the general cost of living is the most common response.
Given then, it’s no surprise that Canadians want to see costs come down and most believe the grocery retail market in Canada leads to higher prices. That’s why there is a cross-country, cross-partisan agreement that the Grocery Code of Conduct is a good idea and there’s widespread support for governments to impose it on retailers who refuse to abide by it.
Consumers want governments to protect their interests and at a time when the cost of living is the most important issue facing Canadians, action on the Grocery Code of Conduct will be met with widespread public support.
Background
The Grocery Code of Conduct in Canada is a set of industry guidelines and principles aimed at promoting fairness, transparency, and competition within the grocery supply chain. The voluntary code seeks to address issues such as unfair practices, arbitrary fees, and lack of clarity in business relationships between suppliers and retailers in the grocery sector. The code encourages open communication, equitable treatment, and timely payments for suppliers, ensuring that both small and large businesses have a level playing field. By fostering trust and accountability among stakeholders, the Grocery Code of Conduct aims to enhance the overall efficiency and competitiveness of Canada’s grocery industry, ultimately benefiting consumers through improved product availability and affordability.
For more than two years, a Grocery Code Steering Committee representing business associations and key stakeholders within the supply chain have been developing the provision and governance documents that collectively make up the code. Now complete, the code was recently submitted to government for review prior to the recruitment of a Chief Executive Officer to manage the development of a Grocery Adjudication Office in the Spring of 2024.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,417 Canadian adults from November 23 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
This survey was paid for by Food, Health, and Consumer Products of Canada.
