What Poilievre’s shift from underdog to front-runner means for his strategy in 2024

In mid-December, Conservatives experienced a slight dip of five points in an Abacus Data poll while the Liberals were up four points. Despite the governing party’s excitement at the time, the poll nonetheless left the Conservatives still 10 points ahead of the Liberals.

While that poll might have been a statistical dip practically within the margin of error, it came at a time where Conservatives were under fire for voting against the bill updating the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement, ostensibly protesting its mention of carbon taxes, although the Liberals accused Conservatives of being soft on Russia. Meanwhile, Poilievre was threatening to keep Parliament sitting over Christmas and ruin the Liberals holidays for stymieing a carbon tax exemption for farmers, noted Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

Can Donald Trump rescue Trudeau? – GZERO Media

By Stephen Maher

The struggling government of Justin Trudeau tried Tuesday to cast itself as the group to handle the vital relationship with the United States — announcing a “Team Canada engagement strategy” at the end of a cabinet retreat — but observers are dubious about the government’s ability to pivot its way out of trouble by invoking the specter of Donald Trump.

And Biden has better electoral prospects than Trudeau, according to pollster David Coletto, who concluded this week that Trudeau has little chance of winning another election. Trudeau seems out of touch with the top-of-mind concern of Canadian voters: the high cost of living. His firm, Abacus Data, recently found that the rising cost of fuel and food is the most important issue for three out of four Canadians — an unusually dominant concern.

Biden looks better

The bad news for Trudeau is that only one in four Canadians believe he “understands what life is like for people like you,” while two in four believe Poilievre does.

Inflation is brutal for incumbent governments — in the United Kingdom, United States and France the leaders are all facing stiff headwinds — but Coletto thinks Trudeau’s brand leaves him ill-suited to respond to a public dealing with scarcity.

Biden, on the other hand, could still pull off a win. “Biden is, I still think, better than 50-50. The odds are still in his favor, although not greatly. I think Trudeau has got a 10% chance of winning the next election.” Polling agrees. The horse race numbers for Trump-Biden show a tight race, while Trudeau has been far behind of his opponent for six months.

Conservatives lead by 15 over the Liberals. Poilievre leads Trudeau by 8, in head-to-head.

From January 18 to 23, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,199 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Conservatives lead by 15 over the Liberals. NDP up to 20%.

If an election were held today, 40% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 25%, the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives arre down 1, the Liberals up 1, the NDP up 2 and the Greens up 1.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 8 in BC, and 14 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 10-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 5 over the Liberals with the Conservatives at 17%.

If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives up 1 and the Liberals unchanged from our last survey in January across these three regions/provinces.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP.

We find almost little difference in vote intention between men and women except for NDP support which is higher among women and Conservative support which is higher among men. This is the same pattern we measured earlier this month.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 5q% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 3 since mid-January) while, 43% are open to voting NDP, and 42% are open to voting Liberal (+1).

We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.

We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. The 13-point difference between Conservative and Liberal enthusiasm higher than the 6-point gap we measured in the middle of January.

What else are Canadians thinking?

The mood of the country remains decidedly negative. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the country. This mood continues to be very sour.

The federal government’s approval rating largely unchanged with 28% approving (+2) and 58% disapproving.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau are unchanged as well. 57% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 26% have a positive view for a net score of -31.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have shifted somewhat with his negatives rising by 4-points to 36% while his positives hold fairly steady at 37% for a net score of +1.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are somewhat more negative than last wave. Today 36% have a negative impression compared with 34% who have a positive one for a net score of -2.

Only 15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. That number has been flat and unchanged since September and is down 6 points from the first time we asked it at the end of June – the last poll before we saw a big shift in voter intentions towards the Conservatives.

Those who say it’s time for a change in government and feel there’s a good alternative to the Liberals is up to it’s highest point in our tracking at 54%.

What Canadians feel are the top issues facing the country are fairly stable although we find immigration has become more salient over the past two weeks. Those putting immigration in their top issues is now 23% – tied with climate change- having risen 8 points over the past 4 months.

Finally, in this survey we asked Canadians if they only had a choice between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre, who would they prefer to be Prime Minister. Poilievre beats Trudeau by 8-points – 54% to 46%.

Of note:

  • 1 in 5 past Liberal supporters prefer Poilievre compared with only 6% of past Conservative supporters who prefer Trudeau.
  • 1 in 3 past NDP supporters prefer Poilievre compared with 2 in 3 who prefer Trudeau.
  • Poilievre is the preferred choice among all age groups, both men and women, and in all regions of the country except for Quebec.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Little has changed over the past two weeks and the opinion environment has been fairly stable for a few months now. The public wants change, is cranky and anxious, and is looking for an alternative to Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals. As I wrote earlier this week, I don’t believe Justin Trudeau can win in this environment and faces very long odds whenever the next election.

I argued that that the public mindset – one deeply concerned about scarcity and reinforced by a desire for change – is not going to accept more Trudeau.

We will have to see whether the attempt by the Liberals to link Poilievre and the Conservatives with Donald Trump will bare any fruit. Evidence from this survey suggests his negatives may be rising but we will need a few more waves to know for sure if the shift is real and sustained.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

And don’t miss this new poll also out today: Do Canadians think Trump and Poilievre are similar? And if so, does it matter?

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Do Canadians think Trump and Poilievre are similar? And if so, does it matter?

From January 18 to 23, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,199 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

As part of this survey, we asked Canadians several questions to try and understand if they see similiarities between Pierre Poilievre and Donald Trump. Initial reporting of these questions appeared in the Toronto Star on Saturday and comes after the Liberals and Prime MInister Trudeau attempt to tie Mr. Poilievre to Donald Trump.

If they had a vote in the US Presidential Election, how do Canadians think Poilievre and Trudeau would vote?

One way for us to gauge how Canadians perceive the similarities between Canadian political leaders and those in the United States (Trump and Biden) is to ask how Canadians think Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre would vote if they could in the 2024 US Presidential election.

68% of Canadians believe Justin Trudeau would vote for Biden while 13% think he would vote for Trump. 19% are unsure.

In contrast, 48% of Canadians think Poilievre would vote for Trump, 20% think he would vote for Biden, while 32% don’t know how he’d vote – 13-points higher than those unsure how Mr. Trudeau would vote.

At least a plurality of past Liberal, NDP and Conservative voters believe Mr. Poilievre would vote for Donald Trump.

If they had a vote in the US Presidential Election, how do Canadians think Poilievre and Trudeau would vote?

One way for us to gauge how Canadians perceive the similarities between Canadian political leaders and those in the United States (Trump and Biden) is to ask how Canadians think Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre would vote if they could in the 2024 US Presidential election.

If Trump is US President, would it be better for Canada if Poilievre or Trudeau was Prime Minister?

By 15-points, Canadians are more likely to think Pierre Poilievre would be better to deal with Donald Trump as US President than Justin Trudeau. 44% picked Poilievre while 29% picked Trudeau. 28% were unsure.

Among current Conservative voters, 80% think Poilievre would be better, 4% pick Trudeau and 17% are unsure. Among Liberal supporters, 61% pick Trudeau, 1 in 5 pick Poilievre, and 22% are unsure. Among NDP supporters, 46% select Trudeau, 23% Poilievre, and 30% are unsure.

Stand up to Trump or Get Along to Play Along?

We also asked Canadians whether they thought the Canadian Prime Minister should stand up to Trump, even if it hurts Canada’s relationship with the US or should the Prime Minister find common ground where they can, even if it conflicts with Canadians values.

Overall, 2 in 3 want the Prime Minister to stand up to Trump (including 57% of Conservative supporters) while 36% would prefer the PM try to find common ground, even if it goes against Canadian values.

How similar are Poilievre and Trump?

More Canadians think Poilievre and Trump are similar than different, 4 in 10 Canadians believe they are similar, about 1 in 3 think they are different while the remaining 20% are unsure what to think.

When we expore specific attributes or areas, we find Canadians are more likely to think they are similar when it comes to their views on the environment and climate change (49%) and their stance on social issues (46%). 43% think they share similar worldviews and are similar in how they respect democracy. 41% feel they are similar when it comes to their communication and leadership styles.

Among those open to voting Conservative (51% of the electorate), more think Poilievre and Trump are different, except for their views on the environment and climate change. And proportion who think they are different is greatest on how they communicate and their leadership styles.

Among current Conservative supporters, 38% believe Trump and Poilievre are similar in most things, 49% see them as different while 13% are unsure.

Does thinking Poilievre is similar to Trump hurt politically?

There is evidence to suggest that being associated with Trump is correlated with vote intention, although making a causal link is more challenging.

In our survey, those who think Trump and Poilievre are different are more likely to be voting Conservative than those who think they are similar.

For example, among those who think the two are different, the Conservatives lead by 41-points over the Liberals – 57% to 16%, while among those who think they are similar, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied (32% to 30%).

So it is possible that if more Canadians come to associate Mr. Poilievre with Mr. Trump, that could hurt Conservative vote share. It is also worth noting that for some Canadians, associations with Mr. Trump could also be a positive.

It is worth noting in a survey we did earlier in the month, Trump had the lowest rating when compared with Biden, Trudeau and Poilievre, but he was only marginally less liked than Trudeau.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Associating Pierre Poilievre with Donald Trump may be an effective strategy at weakening Mr. Poilievre’s personal image and raising doubts about his suitability to be Prime Minister especially when 3 in 10 Canadians say they want a change in government but don’t feel comfortable with the alternatives to the Liberals.

Right now, about 4 in 10 Canadians think Poilievre is similar to Trump in some ways. Those who do are less likely to say they would vote Conservative. If that number rises, it could hurt the Conservatives but it may also be moot so long as people dislike Mr. Trudeau as much as they do and the desire for change is as strong as it is. We will track these numbers over the next year to see how perceptions evolve.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Liberals think Donald Trump comparisons hurt Pierre Poilievre. Canadians aren’t so sure they’re the same, Abacus Data poll suggests

A new Abacus Data poll suggests that many voters don’t see similarities between the former president and the Conservative leader.

However, a new Abacus Data poll provided exclusively to the Star suggests that Canadians may not be entirely on side with that argument.

When asked how they view Poilievre and Trump on a range of issues, just under half said they think the two are the same, about a third think they are different and the rest simply don’t know.

Political strategist says Ken McDonald's about-face on Trudeau doesn't undo damage done

According to the latest Abacus data, the Liberals trail the Conservatives by 12 points in Atlantic Canada. Powers said McDonald’s comments will play well in his home province and could help him if he chooses to run provincially.

“Ken really hasn’t damaged his political prospects any,” Powers said. “I’m a bit surprised by the retraction, but I suspect he’s gained enough capital casting himself as a maverick should he choose to run provincially.”

How Justin Trudeau can still win | Canada's National Observer

The odds of a Justin Trudeau comeback seem to just keep getting longer. With a bunch of new polls leaving his Liberal party’s late-2023 bump looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, it’s increasingly difficult to see a path that can lead Justin Trudeau to re-election in 2025. If anything, he might be resigned to trying to save the proverbial political furniture.

That won’t be easy. As Abacus Data’s David Coletto concluded in a recent Substack post, “The public mindset has moved from one of optimism in 2018, to fear in 2020, to shortage in 2021 and to scarcity today. And I don’t believe Justin Trudeau is suited to serve that mindset.” Tuesday’s Federal Court decision on his government’s use of the Emergencies Act that found it infringed on certain charter rights won’t help there.

Beyond Shelter: Unraveling the Multi-Faceted Housing Crisis in Canada 

In partnership with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), we undertook a series of one-on-one interviews with professionals serving vulnerable populations to delve into the repercussions of the housing crisis, particularly on Canada’s homeless community. Between October 30 and December 15, 2023, we engaged in discussions with 15 individuals from the shelter and housing services sector. Our aim was to gain insights into the hurdles and obstacles confronting some of Canada’s most at-risk groups as they seek access to housing. 

This exploration delves into the intricate landscape of the housing crisis and its profound impact on support services. As demand soars and resources strain, providers are forced to adapt, recognizing the pressing need to assist clients within limitations. From burnout in shelters to addressing resource gaps and advocating for homelessness eradication, each perspective unveils a critical facet of the urgent housing crisis. 

Magnification of the Housing Crisis and Its Impact on Support Services 

The widening impact of the housing affordability and accessibility crisis in Canada is fostering heightened collaboration and dialogue within the housing support sector, as the broader community feels its effects. The surge in demand for housing support services and emergency shelters has prompted a more adaptable approach, acknowledging the growing need with available resources. This crisis magnification has placed immense pressure on housing support services, compelling providers to adopt a flexible stance in assisting as many clients as possible despite limited resources. Shelters nationwide recognize the deficiency in resources, highlighting the crucial link between secure and stable housing and the mental health progress of their clients. The overarching narrative is one of a housing crisis reaching unprecedented levels, necessitating a nimble response from support services to address the pressing demand and underscore the pivotal role of stable housing in enhancing well-being. 

Resource Challenges and Worker Burnout in Shelters 

Shelter workers grapple with a critical challenge — an acute shortage of resources and budget constraints. The struggle includes insufficient space, beds, staff, and financial means to address the growing demand for services. Some shelters, acting as landlords, operate at a loss, posing sustainability challenges in providing effective housing services. 

Limited financial resources exacerbate the struggle to retain staff, with demanding workloads and often inadequate salaries contributing to high turnover. The thankless nature of the job, with frustrated clients directing their grievances at frontline staff, compounds the challenge. 

Staff shortages and budget constraints force housing support workers to handle caseloads far beyond the norm, sometimes up to ten times their expected capacity, leading to widespread burnout in the sector. Amidst burnout, workers also grapple with compassion fatigue, navigating the difficult task of prioritizing services and making tough decisions due to limited resources. The inevitable outcome is triaging clients based on the severity of their situations, despite the initial instinct to provide equal support to all. 

Addressing Resource Gaps in Housing Support: A Call for Collaboration 

Tackling the resource gaps in housing support demands urgent attention as a long-term solution to the current crisis and the challenges faced by support workers. Many shelters lack the necessary resources to efficiently assist those in need, and obtaining government support and funding remains a significant hurdle despite housing support workers’ eagerness for improvements. 

Advocates stress the need for increased social services and benefits that better align with the current housing market and goals. The pandemic’s impact on mental health necessitates additional support to prevent it from becoming a barrier to sustaining housing. 

Recognizing the importance of improving the supply of affordable rental units, efforts should focus not only on constructing additional units but also addressing the issue of units remaining unfilled.  

Ultimately, effective implementation requires a holistic and collaborative approach to end homelessness. This involves aligning goals with other housing support providers, addressing various social determinants such as mental health, addictions, and violence, and working collectively towards sustainable solutions. 

Challenges in Advocating for Homelessness Eradication 

Acknowledging the pivotal role of policy and advocacy in ending homelessness in Canada, housing support workers recognize the inherent challenges in leading such initiatives. The fragmented nature of support providers adds complexity to the task of unifying the group and advocating for cohesive priorities. Federalism, multi-jurisdictional barriers, and incoherent and inconsistent policy frameworks make progress more challenging. 

Many advocate for the establishment of a basic income program and the imposition of rental rate limits to address challenges faced by individuals at risk of homelessness. In a survey that we conducted for CREA in September 2023, we found that close to 1.8 million Canadian adults who are currently housed worry about becoming homeless in the next year. This mindset is reflected in the views and stories shared by those on the front line. 

A significant concern raised involves the inaccessibility of funding initiatives from provincial and federal governments for front-line organizations. Despite these initiatives directly supporting those experiencing homelessness, organizations find the funds inaccessible. The added challenge of spending on consultants for unsuccessful applications further hampers the ability of organizations, well aware of problems and potential solutions, to effectively serve their clients. 

The Upshot 

As the housing crisis continues to impact people across the country, the imperative for collaboration and dialogue within the housing support sector becomes increasingly evident. The surge in demand for housing support services has created the need to embrace a flexible approach, adapting to the growing need with available resources. However, the crisis places immense pressure on housing support services, with shelters recognizing the deficiency in resources and emphasizing the critical link between secure housing and mental health progress. 

Resource challenges and worker burnout in shelters present a critical issue, as insufficient space, staff, and budget constraints strain the ability to meet the growing demand for services and to truly help those in need. Addressing resource gaps becomes paramount, emphasizing the need for government support and increased social services to align with housing market goals. 

Efforts to improve the supply of affordable rental units are crucial, requiring a holistic and collaborative approach to end homelessness. Advocacy for policy changes, including standardized basic income and rent control, is essential, yet the fragmented nature of support providers poses challenges. 

Overall, the outcomes of this qualitative research illuminate an intricate and pressing scenario that demands immediate attention and concerted efforts. The housing crisis has escalated to unprecedented levels, necessitating a prompt response to address the urgent demand and emphasize the crucial role of stable housing in improving the overall well-being and quality of life for Canadians. The necessity for resources, collaboration, and advocacy is evident, and the outlook depends on a united commitment to formulating sustainable solutions for individuals facing the challenges of homelessness in Canada. The path forward relies on our collective dedication to providing stable housing for those contending with homelessness challenges in Canada. Together, we can make a enduring impact and shape a future where housing stability becomes a reality for everyone. Take action now for a better tomorrow. 

Methodology 

Engaging in one-on-one in-depth interviews, we gathered insights from 15 professionals dedicated to serving vulnerable populations throughout Canada. It’s essential to note that this study is qualitative in nature, making it impractical to calculate a margin of error. Furthermore, it’s important to recognize that the outcomes may not accurately represent the perspectives of all Canadians, as the findings stem from a specific subsample of individuals. This select group offers valuable insights, but it’s crucial to interpret the results within the context of this qualitative approach, acknowledging its inherent limitations in providing a comprehensive overview of the diverse viewpoints across the entire Canadian population. 

This research was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

 

About Abacus Data 

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever. 

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value. 

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019. 

Contact us with any questions 

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.