Vaccinating a large majority of Canadian adults against COVID-19 has been no small task. And vaccinating children in Canada will be no different. Just last weekend one hurdle was eliminated when Health Canada confirmed Pfizer-BioNTech submitted preliminary data on their study of the vaccine for children 5-12. But another challenge awaits.
We’ve been tracking vaccine hesitancy among Canadian adults for quite some time, and our latest data continues to show what we’ve been seeing for the past few months. A very, very slow decline in the hesitant (now at 6%), and refusers (now at 7%), and an acceptance rate hovering somewhere just under 90% (now at 87%).
How do parents feel about vaccinating their children, and not themselves?
Among parents with children aged 12-17 (who already have the vaccine available for their children), acceptance of having their kids vaccinated is at 79% (though note the small base size of n=157). The hesitant/undecided sit at 15% and those in the refusal group at 6%.
The percentage of Canadians already/willing to be vaccinated themselves is higher than the percentage of parents (of children aged 12-17) who already have, or are willing to, vaccinate their children. That said, parents of those 12 and under are the most hesitant.
For these parents (who have a larger sample size of n=285) acceptance rates are closer to two thirds (68%). 15% are hesitant or undecided, and 17% fall in the refusers category.
Sample size limitations withstanding, these numbers are notably lower than vaccine acceptance among adults inoculating themselves, a far cry from the 87% among Canadians adults who are vaccinated/will be taking their first/second shot ASAP.
But context is important. For parents of those under 12, the process for approval and then appointment booking is in early stages. Flashback to when Canadian adults were in that same position, and acceptance rates are looking pretty similar between adults and parents of those under 12, if not better, for parents.
For example, in November of last year, when the conversations of vaccine approvals for adults were top of mind, only 33% of adults were already vaccinated/willing to take ASAP. Compared to the 46% of parents who are willing to do so for their children under 12 today, at a similar point in the process.
UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: On one hand, you could say that we have a long way to go by increasing acceptance among parents for vaccinating their children under 12.
But on the other, it seems like the high vaccination rates among adults and public health efforts aimed at increased vaccine acceptability are paying off, and moving parents closer to acceptance, even earlier than us adults last Winter.
Vaccinating 5–12-year-olds will be the next big task in increasing the vaccination rate in Canada. We are still in early stages, but our data shows that we are on the right track with acceptability. We will continue to monitor this sentiment among parents, to see how it tracks against Canadian adults, and how it will impact vaccination rates in Canada overall.
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 1st to 4th 2021. The sample of parents of children 12-17 was n=157. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 7.8%, 19 times out of 20. The sample of parents of children under 12 was n=285. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 5.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice for our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
When we started Abacus Data in 2010, I wanted to create a research and insights firm that is known for its curiosity, thoughtfulness, and attention to detail. Over the past 11 years, I think we have delivered on that vision.
Ask our clients and they will tell you they count on us to deliver timely and valuable research and insights with a hospitality-inspired approach to client service.
And we’ve been able to do all this thanks to the tireless work of a growing team of research, marketing, and sales professionals.
I am thrilled to announce several well-deserved promotions for team members who have continued to exceed expectations and orient us for future success.
Ihor Korbabicz has been promoted to the role of Executive Vice President where he will continue to lead day-to-day coordination of research, lead the consulting team, and inform and advise the CEO on strategy. He has had tremendous success in cultivating new business with financial service providers, including emerging sectors like crypto-currency, while leading projects with some of Canada’s leading private and public sector organizations.
Yvonne Langen is now the Vice President, Sales & Marketing and will continue to generate new leads, steward client relationships, and guide our marketing strategy. Despite the significant challenges presented by the pandemic, Yvonne has been instrumental in our company’s continued growth in revenue which reached an all-time high in 2021, growing by 20% over the previous year.
Oksana Kishchuk joins the executive team as Director, Strategy & Insights. Now in her fourth year working at Abacus Data, Oksana has taken on increased responsibility in all facets of our work including managing accounts, providing direction for the consulting team, driving new business, and raising brand awareness through regular appearances in major media outlets including The Toronto Star, CTV News, Global News, and more.
Our longest serving team member, Jonathan Nadeau, has been promoted to the role of Director, Field & Analysis. Jon recently celebrated his 10th anniversary working with Abacus and I am delighted to have him join the executive team. Jon will manage our research production team and lead our innovation efforts to continuously improve the quality of data we collected at a cost-effective rate for our clients.
Lastly, Megan Ross has been promoted to the role of Consultant where she will take on more responsibility in project management. Megan has demonstrated considerable professional growth during her time on our team and brings a conscientious and curious mindset to everything she does.
I’m proud of the team we have built at Abacus Data. These changes will allow us to grow while continuing to deliver outstanding work and service to our current and future clients.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
In case you feel you’ve had enough supremely confident predictions about what will happen in today’s election, rest easy, this won’t add to that total.
Who turns out to vote in this unusual circumstance is not complete guesswork – our data and that of other firms are somewhat helpful, but there’s enough softness in that science to make it uncertain which party will be in the best position to form a government when the counting is done.
So, without knowing how it will all net out, for what it’s worth, here are the things which have captured my attention in this election.
After a number of years in government, any group of incumbents tends to produce messages that are self-congratulatory, windy, and laden with 50 cent words. The Liberals have been no exception in this area, and some of the language they have used in recent years to promote their ideas has done more to push voters away than drawing them in. Whether they win or lose, this election should be a reminder to talk like people talk, not talk at people. And never boast. Canadians will pick humility over boastfulness, every time, our motto is “sorry” after all. Once the Liberals became immersed in the idea that they were going to have to fight to win this election, Liberal communications had more clarity and bite.
It seemed to me that Erin O’Toole traded in his image as a moderate conservative for a True Blue positioning to win the leadership, and then tried to reverse the trade in the election. Whether it worked will for some just be a question of whether he wins the election, but to my eyes, the Conservative Party today, even if it wins, will be an increasingly uncomfortable and fragile alliance of people whose values on diversity and inclusion, guns, right to life/choose, and the environment at a minimum are not aligned.
(Because I think only a moderate conservative party can win government in Canada, and because I prefer to have more than one choice I could vote for personally, I’m biased in that I want a Conservative Party that plays it closer to the centre of the spectrum, but that fight in the Conservative Party is far from settled, it might in fact be just getting ramped up.)
Different people have different takes on how much the Liberals calling an early election will cost them votes. My take is that it annoyed a lot of people and created some headwind against their messages in the first couple of weeks, but won’t be the thing that denies them a victory if in fact, they lose. Nor do I think it will be a deep dislike of Justin Trudeau. He’s certainly got scar tissue and a quarter of voters really don’t like him, but a quarter is not all that many for a 6-year incumbent and people can win with that level of voter animosity, no question about it. I think we also saw once again that when Justin Trudeau thinks he might lose a race, he finds another gear and he presents his case with different energy, reveals a level of knowledge of the issues that impresses, and is a much better campaigner.
If the Liberals lose it will come down to two factors:
First, their positioning and language in recent years left some centre-spectrum voters to feel the party was too far to the left for their tastes, more ideological than pragmatic, and needlessly mistrustful of business (the first major self-injury of this sort was the small business tax changes in the first Trudeau term).
Second, some progressive voters want more action more quickly and with fewer caveats on the issues that matter to them, such as income inequality, climate change, diversity and indigenous relations. The “Goldilocks” positioning in Canadian politics – not too much of this or that – is often a reliably winning formula but whether the Liberals wandered away from it, or whether in the era of social media platforms it no longer works – or both – is a question that will become clearer over time.
If the Liberals win, it will be because of two factors as well:
One, Erin O’Toole has run a campaign that seemed to put little effort into rallying different factions in his party who might have aligned with other leadership candidates, or perspectives. People like Peter Mackay, Lisa Raitt, Michael Chong, Rona Ambrose, James Moore. His front bench was invisible. He was neither fish nor fowl on vaccination – sure they were a good idea but unwilling to commit to having a caucus that was vaccinated. His fiscal plan looked so much like the Liberals that fiscal conservatives were probably rubbing their temples in frustration. He ceded a lot of opportunity to Max Bernier. For Bernier, it was probably a gift that he was left out of the debates because his party just started to look like a legitimate option fronted by purple lawn signs and less like a personal vendetta and a bunch of off-putting ideas. If the Liberals win, one significant factor will be the drain of votes from the Conservatives to the Peoples Party.
The other will be the size of the NDP vote. Jagmeet Singh is relatively popular and managed to get through the campaign without a great deal of stress testing. Some of his promises are unworkable from a jurisdictional standpoint, and his climate plan was found wanting by a large number of subject experts. His support level has been fairly steady, even if persistently soft in nature: NDP voters mostly don’t want a Conservative government and whether they vote Orange or Red will have a major effect on tonight’s outcome in my view.
As a final note, I’m lucky and happy to live in a democracy where we have choices, and where voters decide, and I’m interested in the nature of their decision. To be in this profession for almost 40 years is to be interested in the politics of our country, not only the science of measuring public opinion, at least for me. I try to provide a fair analysis of data and also express my opinion about events, and hope that people appreciate the value in the former, and understand the inevitability of the latter.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Earlier today we completed our final survey of Election 44, interviewing 2,431 Canadians eligible to vote from Friday to Sunday at 1:30pm ET. Here is our take on Canadian public opinion as polling stations are set to open tomorrow morning.
THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY & THE DESIRE FOR CHANGE
Just before the election was called, 46% of Canadians felt the country was headed in the right direction compared with 40% who thought it was off on the right track.
Today, the mood has become more negative with 39% who think it’s headed in the right direction (down 7) and 48% who feel it’s off on the wrong track (up 8)
Regionally, Albertans (58%) are the most likely to feel things are off on the wrong track while views are fairly consistent in other provinces: BC (38%), ON (41%), Quebec (40%).
When asked whether they want to see a change in government or see the Liberals re-elected, 50% definitely want a change in government, 19% want a change but say it’s not important, 11% want the Liberals re-elected but say it isn’t important while 19% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected. Since the start of the campaign, the more intense desire for change is up 7-points while those definitely wanting to see the Liberals re-elected is holding pretty steady.
LEADERS: SINGH ENDS CAMPAIGN WITH THE BEST IMAGE
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ends the campaign with the most favourable image: 46% positive and 25% negative for a net score of +21. Mr. Singh’s personal image hasn’t changed much over the campaign but he does end the campaign with higher positives than when the campaign started. Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net score is +26 in BC, +12 in Alberta, +29 in Ontario, and +2 in Quebec.
Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers have also stayed relatively stable over the campaign. 39% have a positive view of Mr. Trudeau compared with 44% who have a negative view for a net score of -5. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net score is -7 in BC, +2 in Ontario, and -1 in Quebec.
Mr. O’Toole’s positives improved in the early weeks of the campaign but plateaued in the final weeks. 31% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 44% view him negatively for a net score of -13. Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net score is -12 in BC, +10 in AB, -15 in Ontario and -16 in Quebec.
In Quebec, Mr. Blanchet is viewed quite positively. 40% have a positive impression with 29% negative for a positive image of +11. This is largely unchanged since the start of the campaign.
Maxime Bernier remains the most unpopular leader in federal politics, by a wide margin. 12% have a positive impression of him compared with 51% who have a negative view for a net score of -39.
THE ISSUES
When we ask respondents to pick the top 2 issues that will determine their vote, the top most frequently chosen are reducing the cost of living (36%), improving Canada’s healthcare system (25%), dealing with climate change (21%), making housing more affordable (20%), and growing the economy (19%).
1 in 5 ranks “getting more people vaccinated and getting the country back to normal quicker”, up 3-points since the start of the campaign.
Today, 41% of eligible voters say they have become more worried about the pandemic over the past few days. This view is higher in Alberta (59%) and lower in Ontario (36%).
Housing affordability is a top issue for 26% of those under 45 compared with 16% for older respondents. Older respondents are more likely to rate “getting more people vaccinated” as a top issue than younger respondents (24% vs. 13%).
For Liberal voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (32%), improving healthcare (29%), getting more people vaccinated (27%), dealing with climate change (26%), and growing the economy (19%). Only 7% rate managing the federal budget deficit in their top 5 issues.
For Conservative voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (36%), managing the federal budget deficit (32%), growing the economy (31%), improving the healthcare system (22%), and running an ethical and scandal-free government (16%). Only 8% rate climate change as a top issue.
For NDP voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (40%), making housing more affordable (29%), dealing with climate change (29%), improving the healthcare system (25%), and getting more people vaccinated (18%). 11% of NDP supporters rank reconciliation with Indigenous people as a top issue – the highest of any party supporters.
For People’s Party voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (45%), making housing more affordable (28%), growing the economy (27%), running an ethical and scandal-free government (20%), managing the federal budget deficit (11%). Only 5% say getting more people vaccinated is a top issue – the lowest of any party’s supporters.
When asked which party and leader is best on each issue, the Liberals lead on “getting more people vaccinated and getting the country back to normal quicker”, “representing Canada internationally”, “making childcare more affordable”, “achieving reconciliation with Indigenous people”, and “dealing with climate change”.
The Conservatives lead on “growing the economy”, “managing the budget deficit”, and “dealing with crime and public safety.”
The NDP doesn’t lead on any policy area but is competitive with the other parties on “improving healthcare”, “making housing more affordable” and “protecting public services.”
On the issue most people cite as important to their vote – the cost of living – no party has a clear advantage.
AN UNNECESSARY ELECTION VS. THE PROSPECT OF A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT
The election call itself continues to be a source of frustration for many eligible voters and has coloured their voting decision. More than half of eligible voters say that “Justin Trudeau calling the election when he didn’t have to” has made them less likely to vote Liberal. 21% say they will not vote Liberal because of this, 17% say they are much less likely to vote Liberal, while 15% say it makes them somewhat less likely to vote Liberal.
Among NDP supporters, 61% say they are less likely to vote Liberal because of the election call. Among those who voted Liberal in 2019, 34% say they are less likely to vote Liberal, including 5% who say they won’t vote Liberal because of this decision.
But a similar tension exists regarding the prospect of a Conservative win in the election. When we asked what impact the possibility that the Conservatives could win the election and form a government, 35% say they are more likely to vote Liberal, 25% say they are more likely to vote Conservative while 40% say it doesn’t impact their views or behaviour.
Among LPC/CPC switchers (those whose first or second choice is the Liberals or Conservatives), 45% are more likely to vote Liberal compared with 16% who are more likely to vote Conservative if there’s a possibility of a Conservative win. Among LPC/NDP switchers, 68% say they are more likely to vote Liberal while only 8% say they are more likely to vote Conservative.
So, on the one hand, the election call has likely hurt Liberal support while the prospect of a Conservative government has helped it. Depending on how voters tomorrow balance this tension could ultimately decide the election.
INTEREST AND ATTENTION TO THE ELECTION
Over the course of the campaign, interest in the election has wanned from an average interest score of 7.4 when the campaign began to 6.9 today.
Similarly, when asked how much attention they are paying to the election, 13% say they are following it very closely, 33% pretty closely, 45% only a little, while 9% are not following it at all.
As a measure of engagement and possibility, a predictor of turnout tomorrow, 58% of Conservative supporters says they following the election closely, 8-points higher than Liberal supporters, and 17-points higher than NDP supporters. Only 42% of People Party supporters say they are following the election closely.
CANADIANS THINK THE RESULT WILL BE CLOSE & MORE THINK LIBERALS WILL WIN
Most Canadians believe the election result will be close (78%) while 10% think one party will win by quite a bit.
When asked which party will win tomorrow, 43% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win (up 6 since last week), 23% think the Conservatives will win (down 3) while 22% are unsure.
PREFERRED PM: TRUDEAU LEADS MR. O’TOOLE BY 3
When asked who they would prefer to be PM after the election, 35% picked Mr. Trudeau while 32% would choose Mr. O’Toole. 1 in 5 would prefer Mr. Singh (22%) to become prime minister while 7% prefer Mr. Bernier and 3% Ms. Paul.
In BC, it’s a three-way race with Mr. Trudeau (32%), Mr. Singh (31%), and Mr. O’Toole (30%) all bunched around 30%.
In Ontario, Mr. Trudeau has an 8-point lead on preferred PM over Mr. O’Toole (37% to 29%) with Mr. Singh at 23%.
In Quebec, 47% would prefer Mr. Trudeau compared with 28% for Mr. O’Toole and 15% for Mr. Singh.
WHAT ELECTION OUTCOME DO CANADIANS WANT?
Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 60% would prefer a Liberal victory (28% majority, 32% minority) while 40% would prefer a Conservative win (15% minority, 25% majority). This is mostly unchanged from our last survey and has been consistent throughout the election.
Among NDP supporters, 74% would prefer a Liberal government over a Conservative one (58% want a Liberal minority) while BQ supporters are split. 51% want a Liberal government (45% want a Liberal minority) while 49% want a Conservative government (with 43% wanting a Conservative minority).
Among People’s Party supporters, 78% want a Conservative government (including 41% who want a Conservative majority) while 22% would prefer a Liberal government.
ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS
As the campaign comes to an end, the Liberals and NDP continue to have the largest pool of accessible voters compared with the other parties. 51% are open to voting Liberal while 52% are open to voting NDP. 43% would consider voting Conservative and 27% would be open to voting Green. 18% are open to voting for the People’s Party across the country In Quebec, 42% say they are open to voting for the BQ.
Over the campaign, the Liberal and Green accessible voter pools have declined 4-points, while the NDP pool is up 3 and the Conservative pool is up 2. The People’s Party pool of accessible voters is unchanged.
OUR FINAL POPULAR VOTE ESTIMATE: CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS STATISTICALLY TIED
Combining those who have already voted and those likely to vote tomorrow, Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied with the Conservatives at 32%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 19%. Since last weekend, the Conservative vote share in unchanged, the Liberals are down 1 and the NDP is down 2. We have the People’s Party at 6%, up 2 since last week while the Greens are at 4%, up 1.
In BC, we see the Conservatives slightly ahead of the NDP (35% to 32%) with the Liberals at 23%. In Alberta, the Conservatives are well ahead of the NDP (51% to 22%) with the Liberals at 14%. The People’s Party is at 6%. In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 8 over the Conservatives (40% to 32%) while in Quebec, the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied (31% to 30%) with the Conservatives in third at 18%.
NDP support is strongest among those aged 18 to 29 at 24% and drops to 16% among those 45 to 59. Liberal support is consistent across age groups, while the Conservatives are stronger among older voters and weaker among younger ones.
In our survey, 38% of eligible voters said they cast a ballot either by mail or at an advance poll. Among those who voted at an advance poll, the Conservatives are ahead by 7 (35% to 28%) with the NDP at 19%. Among those who said they voted by mail, the vote is split 33% Liberal, 32% Conservative, 17% NDP.
Among those likely to vote tomorrow, the vote is: Liberal 33%, Conservative 29%, NDP 21%, People’s Party 7%, BQ 5%, and GPC 4%.
UPSHOT
Our final poll of the 44thCanadian General Election indicates that the election outcome is far from certain as the Conservatives and Liberals seem locked in more or less a tie nationally. The Liberal lead in Ontario along with a competitive race with the BQ in Quebec may ultimately help it win the most seats. But our extensive review of the data leaves us unable to make a confident projection except that every vote will count and we are heading towards another minority parliament.
This has been an election campaign that Canadians have largely tuned out. Over the five weeks of the campaign, we find that interest has wanned.
For the Liberals, general approval over its handling of the pandemic has been largely overshadowed by the negative reaction most felt when the election was called. They have been unable, to this point, to entice many NDP supporters into their camp in part because only a small minority believe the Conservatives are likely to win the election. You can’t fear an outcome you don’t think is likely to happen.
For the Conservatives, despite effectively litigating the “unnecessary election” theme throughout the campaign, the desire for change remains lower than in 2019 and they haven’t been able to galvanize enough voters who want to see the Liberals replaced. While their pool of accessible voters has grown over the campaign, Mr. O’Toole’s personal image plateaued after a quick rise in the early weeks of the campaign.
More still would prefer to see a Liberal government to a Conservative one.
Ultimately, for swing voters, the choice in this election is likely between punishing the Liberals for the election call or sticking with the incumbents in the face of rising COVID-19 cases and growing anxiety about the pandemic.
Turnout, more than ever, will be critical to the final outcome. With longer than expected wait times to vote, the final outcome may hinge or a few hundred votes in a dozen or so seats scattered across the country.
If the final results come close to our estimates, this would be the lowest share of the popular vote the two largest parties would have earned since the 1997 federal election. The level of fragmentation in our party system is very high.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,431 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 17 to 19, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
In the final days of the 2021 Canadian general election, our team is tracking public opinion and intentions about the election daily.
Each evening from Wednesday, September 15 to Saturday, September 18, we will be releasing the results of a three-day rolling poll of about 1,500 eligible voters who say they will definitely be voting or have already voted in the election. Each day about 400 interviews are conducted online.
OUR LATEST FINDINGS
The race remains very close nationally with the Liberals and Conservatives separated by a single point (32% to 31%). The NDP is at 21% unchanged for the past 3 days. The People’s Party is up to 6% while the Greens are at 2%.
Regionally, the NDP and Conservatives are tied in BC, the CPC is ahead in the Prairies, and the Liberals have a 7-point lead in Ontario, a 4-point lead in Quebec (the gap between the BQ and LPC has closed over the past few days), and a 27-point lead in Atlantic Canada.
49% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government (down 3) whereas 24% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office -a 2 point increase from yesterday.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+20), while Mr. Trudeau is +1, Mr. O’Toole is -15, and Ms. Paul is -24. Over the past few days, Mr. O’Toole’s image has become markedly worse. Today 33% have a positive view while 48% have a negative view. More have a negative view of Mr. O’Toole than do of Mr. Trudeau (48% vs. 43%).
25% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote, down 4 from yesterday. 3% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
45% think the Liberals are going to win while 29% think the Conservatives will win. This is unchanged from yesterday.
Although the horserace is still tight and the regional numbers barely give the Liberals an advantage, the underlying numbers point to a challenging final two days for the Conservative campaign. Mr. O’Toole’s negatives are rising and the desire for change is waning. Watch those two numbers into the final few days.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,271 Canadian adults eligible to vote who say they will definitely vote or have already voted from September 16 to 18, 2021. Each day a random sample of about 400 panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
In the final days of the 2021 Canadian general election, our team is tracking public opinion and intentions about the election daily.
Each evening from Wednesday, September 15 to Saturday, September 18, we will be releasing the results of a three-day rolling poll of about 1,500 eligible voters who say they will definitely be voting or have already voted in the election. Each day about 500 interviews are conducted online.
OUR LATEST FINDINGS
The race has tightened again with the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied nationally. The Liberals are ahead by 5 in Ontario and 11 in Quebec.
52% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government whereas 22% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office – only a one-point change from yesterday.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+18), while Mr. Trudeau is -1, Mr. O’Toole is -8, and Ms. Paul is -23.
29% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote. 4% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
45% think the Liberals are going to win while 29% think the Conservatives will win. That’s a slight change from yesterday.
With three days to go, the race remains tight nationally but the Liberals remain well-positioned to win the most seats.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,333 Canadian adults eligible to vote who say they will definitely vote or have already voted from September 15 to 17, 2021. Each day a random sample of about 500 panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
In the final days of the 2021 Canadian general election, our team is tracking public opinion and intentions about the election daily.
Each evening from Wednesday, September 15 to Saturday, September 18, we will be releasing the results of a three-day rolling poll of about 1,500 eligible voters who say they will definitely be voting or have already voted in the election. Each day about 500 interviews are conducted online.
SUMMARY
The Liberals have opened up a clear national lead over the Conservatives – 34% to 30% with the NDP at 21%, the BQ at 6% and the People’s Party at 5%. The Liberals have a 9-point lead in Ontario, a 13-point lead in Quebec, and 25-point in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies while the Conservatives and NDP are tied in BC.
53% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government whereas 23% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office – only a one-point change from yesterday.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+18), while Mr. Trudeau, Mr. O’Toole, and Ms. Paul all have net negatives. Mr. O’Toole’s image has continued to get worse while Mr. Trudeau’s has improved slightly from yesterday.
30% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote. 4% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
With four days to go, the Liberals may have some momentum, gaining 3 points in 5 days and opening up bigger leads in Ontario and Quebec despite the NDP support holding.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,604 Canadian adults eligible to vote who say they will definitely vote or have already voted from September 14 to 16, 2021. Each day a random sample of about 500 panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
In the final days of the 2021 Canadian general election, our team is tracking public opinion and intentions about the election daily.
Each evening from Wednesday, September 15 to Saturday, September 18, we will be releasing the results of a three-day rolling poll of about 1,500 eligible voters who say they will definitely be voting or have already voted in the election. Each day about 500 interviews are conducted online.
SUMMARY
The Liberals and Conservatives remain in a statistical tie nationally. The Conservatives have clear leads in the Prairies whereas the Liberals have leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. BC is a close race overall.
54% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government whereas 21% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+17), while Mr. Trudeau, Mr. O’Toole, and Ms. Paul all have net negatives. All have seen their images become more negative since the weekend.
30% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote. 4% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
With five days to go, this election is still close but at this point, the Liberals have a clear advantage thanks to their leads in the country’s two largest provinces.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,578 Canadian adults eligible to vote who say they will definitely vote or have already voted from September 13 to 15, 2021. Each day a random sample of about 500 panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
Over the last four weeks we’ve been tracking a lot of data points about the federal election. Everything from where the parties, stand, to how we are getting our content about the election. As we go into the final week of this election I wanted to review some of the biggest jumps we’ve seen in the numbers, and what they might as we head into this final week.
The following are some of the biggest changes I’ve noted since the start of the election period, and are presented in no particular order.
#4: Have you made up your mind about who you are voting for?
One number that we saw climb at the start of the election is the percentage of eligible voters who’ve made up their mind.
However, this number may be more of an honourable mention, if you just consider the last couple weeks.
After about week three, the number of decided Canadians sat at two thirds and has been fairly stable since, with the debates doing little to sway the number. With one week to go, a third of the electorate still has yet to decide. Still, the jump in decided voters in late August was a big one, and lines up with what we are seeing in the other data as well (larger swings early on in the campaign with a stabilization heading into the final week).
#3: Which party is going to win?
Up next is the question of who voters think will win the next election. TLDR: most think the Liberals, but the margins have tightened significantly.
At the beginning of the election, one in two voters felt the Liberals would take the win, but this steadily declined over the next two weeks. Like the previous, these numbers seem to have stabilized as well, and a majority of voters still think the Liberals will win, but since we started tracking the Liberals have seen a 10-pt decrease while the Conservatives have seen an almost equal increase.
There may be many reasons for this stabilization but one possible gain from the Liberals may be them pulling the electorate back towards them on cost of living issues. Early on, we saw a near tie between the Conservatives and Liberals when we asked which party was best positioned to address this issue. The gap widened slightly, as Erin O’Toole took a 3-4 pt lead. But our latest poll shows this is back to a tie.
#2: Impressions of Erin O’Toole
Next up are impressions of Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. As we started the election, 40% of voters didn’t know enough about the Conservative leader to form impressions. But once the campaign kicked off, Canadians became more familiar and that increased awareness seems to have translated directly to the positives. Positive impressions have risen 11-pts, a significant climb, negatives have stayed consistent.
#1: Impressions of Jagmeet Singh
And finally, finishing off some of the biggest changes we’ve seen so far are impressions of Jagmeet Singh. Awareness of Singh at the start of the campaign was about in line with awareness of O’Toole. And also like O’Toole, Singh experienced a significant shift in awareness, that trended almost entirely positive. Since the start of the election Singh has seen an increase in positive impressions, 5 pts in a month.
During this election we saw some big shifts at the start, but heading into the final week numbers have leveled off, making this a tight race. With a third of eligible voters undecided, there is still room for the increased positive impressions of O’Toole and Singh to have an impact. The same can be said for the narrowing race of which party voters think will win the election- the majority still think the Liberals will win but the Conservative momentum seen early on could impact vote decisions in the end.
We will continue tracking these insights and more, daily, during the final week of the 2021 federal election.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey were conducted over 5 waves:
August 12-16th: 1,500 Canadian adults from August 12 to 16, 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
August 17 to 22nd: 2,000 Canadian adults from August 17 to 22, 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
August 24 to 29th: 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 24 to 29, 2021.The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
September 1 to 4th: 2,692 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 1 to 4, 2021.The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-1.9%, 19 times out of 20.
September 3 to 6th: 2,875 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 3 to 6, 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-1.9%, 19 times out of 20.
September 10 to 12th: 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 10 to 12, 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
All surveys were conducted using a random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
In Canada the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, we found that a majority of Canadians saw this summer’s forest fires and temperature records as evidence that climate change is happening and action is more urgent.
Across the country, 60% say that temperatures, where they live, have been hotter than usual due to climate change. Another quarter says temperatures have been hotter but do not ascribe that to climate change. And 17% say the temperatures have not been hotter in their part of the country.
This summer has also seen significant numbers of forest fires. A majority of Canadians (63%) say that these fires have been making them feel that climate change is a more urgent issue to deal with. A quarter (26%) say the fireset is upsetting but they do not connect them to climate change and 11% are not concerned about the fires.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Climate change is one of the most prominent issues in this election campaign and the issue for many people is no longer about long term changes happening in distant parts of the world – but real-life situations where Canadians live. The pressure to act more aggressively is growing and heatwaves and fires, along with floods and storms are a big part of why.”
According to Trevor Melanson, Clean Energy Canada’s communications director: “For Canadians, climate change is no longer simply an abstract idea. We’ve now entered the era of truly feeling its impacts, and public opinion reflects that. The tone has shifted, and politicians need to read the room. Climate action isn’t only about doing the right thing for the world—it’s also about protecting Canadians and safeguarding their future.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 3 to 6, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
