Conservatives keep 8-point lead nationally. Liberal support drops in Quebec by 5 points in 3 weeks.

From February 9 to 18, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 4,000 Canadian adults. The survey asked several questions about the political landscape that we track as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Here’s what we found:

Today, 34% approve, and 49% disapprove of the performance of the federal government, a one-point drop in disapproval since the end of January. Disapporval of the government has hovered between 47% and 51% since the summer of 2022.

The desire for change is holding steady and is in line with the end of the 2021 campaign, although those wanting to see the Liberals re-elected are down 6 points compared with the end of the 2021 campaign. 51% of Canadians definitely want a change of government while 13% definitely want the Liberals re-elected.

Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau have remained relatively stable over the past few months. Today, the Prime Minister’s net favourable rating is -16 with 32% having a positive impression and 48% having a negative impression of him. Among Liberal supporters, his net rating is +73.

Over the past month, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have not changed much. His negatives are up a single point while his positives are steady. His net favourable rating is -4.  Among Conservative supporters, his net rating is +71.

Jagmeet Singh’s negatives are down three since last month with 34% having a positive impression of him and 31% having a negative view. His net favourable is +3 nationally and +80 among NDP supporters.

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION

As a way of capturing any shifts towards the undecided category, we are now reporting vote intention with and without undecided voters.

Among all Canadians, 30% would vote Conservative, 24% Liberal, 15% NDP, and 6% from the BQ. 17% say they are undecided.

If an election were held today, among committed voters, 37% would vote for the Conservative Party (unchanged from last month), 29% for the Liberal Party (down 2), 18% for the NDP and 7% for the BQ. These numbers are the exact same as our last poll at the end of January.

The Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives also have a small 3-point advantage in Ontario. In Quebec, the BQ is slightly ahead of the Liberals, although the Liberal vote has dropped over the past few weeks. Compared with the end of November 2022, Liberal support in Quebec is down 6 points and it is down 5 points since the end of January.

Looking at the largest urban regions in the country, the Liberals have a clear lead in Metro Toronto and are statistically tied with the Conservatives in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region (not including the City of Toronto). The Conservatives have an 11-point lead in Metro Vancouver.

In Quebec, the Liberals are well ahead on the Island of Montreal and in Laval, but trail the BQ by 20-points in the communities surrounding Montreal (north and south shores).

When we compare current vote intention with reported vote in the last election, we can categorize Canadians into three categories – loyalists, switchers, and reluctants. Loyalists voted for the party in 2021 and say they will vote for the party now. Switchers voted for the party in 2021 but now say they would vote for another party. Reluctants voted for the party in 2021 but now say they are undecided.

When we compare the six main parties, we find that the Conservative Party is holding together its previous support the most (86% of past CPC supporters are staying with the CPC) while the People’s Party has lost almost half of its 2021 support to either another party (mainly the Conservatives) or to the undecided category.

The Liberals are holding about 3 in 4 of its past voters but have lost 14% to another party and 10% to the undecided group.

The Conservatives lead nationally because they are holding their 2021 coalition together the best and have gained support from other parties across the spectrum.  Looking at the Conservative Party’s current support group – 78% are past Conservative supporters, 5% voted PPC last election, 4% are Liberal switchers, 2% come from the NDP and 1% are from the BQ. The remaining 10% say they didn’t vote in the 2021 election.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “The overall political opinion environment hasn’t changed much over the past three weeks. The Conservatives continue to hold a lead nationally in our tracking – the largest the party has held since the 2015 election. In Quebec, Liberal support is down 5 points over the same period. If this persists, the path to re-election for the Liberals is far more daunting.

Despite some changes in regional vote intentions, the core indicators are all constant and unchanged including impressions of the leaders, approval of the government, and the overall mood of the country.

Stay tuned for some additional analysis on the broader mood of Canadians to be released with my colleague Richard Jenkins tomorrow.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 4,000 Canadian adults from February 9 to 18, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Toronto Pulse: How Torontonians are feeling about the city, the budget, and the TTC today

Earlier this week, I finished a represented survey of adults living in the City of Toronto. All the research was done prior to last night’s news that admited to having had an “inappropriate” relationship with a woman who worked for him

This is the first wave of a quarterly study Abacus Data will be doing exploring the views, opinions, and experiences of those living in Canada’s largest city.

Here are some of the key takeaways from that survey:

Toronto residents are split on how they feel about how things are going in the city.

46% are satisfied while 50% are dissatisfied. Of note, those who are very dissatisfied with how things are going in Toronto are more than double the number who are very satisfied. Those living in Scarborough are less satisfied than those in other parts of the city while those living in North York and York are more likely to be satisfied.

Housing, crime, and homelessness are the top issues

When residents are shown a long list of issues and asked to pick the top issues facing the city at the moment, 54% put housing accessibility and affordability in their top 3 followed by crime and public safety at 53%, and homelessness at 35%. Another 27% rated drug use and mental health as a top issue, with the economy (25%), public transit (24%), poverty (22%), and traffic congestion (21%) all getting at least 1 in 5 rating them as a top issue.

There was little difference in reported top issue depending on where people live. But, those living in Old Toronto/East York were more likely to rate homeless as a top issue than those in the suburbs and those in the suburbs were slightly more likely to rate crime as a top issue.

More approve of Mayor John Tory’s job performance than disapprove

35% of Toronto residents approve of the job John Tory is doing as mayor while 30% disapprove. Another 30% say they neither approve nor disapprove.

When asked about his performance in specific areas, he gets good evaluations for managing city services like garbage collection and snow clearing, for working with other levels of government, for working with the city council, and for being open and transparent. A majority or more think he’s doing a good or acceptable job on all of them.

Areas where a majority or close to a majority think he’s performing poorly are housing affordability, homelessness and poverty, public safety, and crime, and traffic congestion and road maintenance.

Reaction to the 2023 City Budget is one of understanding

Among the 75% of residents who said they were aware of the 2023 budget in Toronto, 48% described it as acceptable, all things considered, 5% thought it’s good and makes the right choices, and 27% thought it was bad and makes wrong choices. 19% were unsure.

When people were told that the budget will raise property taxes by 5.5% in 2023, 54% feel the tax increase is higher than it should be while 31% feel it is justified given inflation and the need to fund city services. Homeowners are about as divided as the population as a whole – 58% think the increase is too high while 34% think it is justified.

Mixed Opinion about John Tory’s use of the “Strong Mayor” powers

The survey as residents if they support or oppose the mayor using the so-called “strong mayor powers” that the province permitted the Mayor of Toronto to use. Overall, 27% support the use of the powers, 27% are opposed, and 27% say they neither support or oppose their use. Another 19% are unsure.

Safety concerns causing many to use the TTC less

The survey also explored residents’ views about the TTC and whether recent safety incidents were impacting perceptions about the system and its use.

Overall, 46% of residents say they use the TTC daily or a few days a week. 15% never use the TTC. Younger residents and those living in Old Toronto/East York are more frequent users of the public transit system.

When asked if they are using the TTC more or less often over the past few weeks, 1 in 3 TTC users reports they are using the TTC less often than they typically would.

When asked, unprompted, why they are using the TTC less, 46% say it is because of safety concerns, 32% report not needing to use it as much, and 10% say it is because they are working from home.

Over four in ten residents believe the TTC is pretty or very unsafe while 33% describe it as safe. Another 26% say the system is neither safe nor unsafe. Among those who use the TTC daily, 45% think it’s safe while 37% think it’s unsafe.

When asked whether specific aspects of the TTC have gotten better or worse over the past few months, 58% think personal safety has gotten worse – the highest of any other aspect.

THE UPSHOT

This is our first quarterly survey of Toronto residents so we are unable to say whether views and impressions have changed, but the view of Torontonians about their city is rather mixed at the moment. About half think things are going well while another half think things aren’t that good. The top concerns are focused on housing, crime, and homelessness – three issues that Mayor Tory gets the worst evaluations on.

Concerns about safety on the TTC are likely impacting ridership. About 14% of Toronto residents say they are riding the TTC less because they are worried about their safety and about half describe the TTC as unsafe, including a third of those who use it daily.

The broader concern about crime and public safety is likely growing and will become a pressure point for local, provincial, and federal leaders.

Despite a lot of debate about John Tory’s use of the “strong mayors powers”, the public isn’t as engaged nor as upset as many commentators. 27% support the use of the powers while 27% oppose it. The rest are either indifferent or don’t know much about it.

John Tory’s first few months of his 3rd term have not been without some drama. But his public approval rating is solid, people aren’t rejecting the 2023 budget outright, and people seem to feel things in control. But challenges remain and may become worse if perceptions about public safety continue to worsen.

This survey is part of a new quarterly omnibus survey Abacus Data will be doing in Toronto. For more information about our work in Toronto, please get in touch.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults living in Toronto from February 3 to 7, 2023.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

These partners are typically double optin survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/3.1%, 19 times out 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Toronto’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Research Brief: Federal Liberals well ahead in Toronto

Earlier this week, I finished a represented survey of adults living in the City of Toronto. On that survey, I asked people how they would vote if a federal election was held at the time.

The survey finds the federal Liberals have a commanding lead in the City of Toronto, leading the Conservatives by 17 points. The Liberals get 44% followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 18%.

Regionally across the city, the Liberals lead in every former municipality with larger leads in Etobicoke and the Old City of Toronto/East York. The Conservatives are more competitive in Scarborough while the NDP gets its highest support in Old Toronto/East York.

This survey is part of a new quarterly omnibus survey Abacus Data will be doing in Toronto. For more information about our work in Toronto, please get in touch.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults living in Toronto from February 3 to 7, 2023.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

These partners are typically double optin survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/3.1%, 19 times out 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Toronto’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Canadian Politics

Alberta Politics: UCP takes the lead as many Reluctant UCPers come home

At the end of last year, I shared our first deep dive into the Alberta political opinion environment in the lead-up to this year’s provincial election. That survey found the NDP leading the UCP by 9 points among decided voters with 25% undecided overall. Our latest survey – conducted from February 1 to 6 – finds a shift in views and intended behaviour.

Here are the key takeaways from this research:

1. The UCP has taken the lead over the NDP province-wide and now has a marginal two-point lead among decided voters  47% to 45%. Those undecided in their vote intention dropped 9 points since early December. This is much more of a gain for the UCP than a loss for the NDP as the NDP’s vote share when undecideds are included hasn’t changed from December.

2. In December, 22% of past UCP voters were undecided when asked who they would vote for. Today, that’s 12%. Almost all of them that made up their mind now say they would back the UCP again.

3. Calgary remains the battleground and education is a strong predictor of vote. The NDP is well ahead in Edmonton while the UCP is well ahead outside of the province’s two largest cities. In Calgary, the NDP has a marginal two-point lead over the UCP. It remains deadlocked in Calgary. The NDP leads among those with a university degree while the UCP is well ahead among those with other educational attainment levels.

4. The overall mood of the province has improved. Today 1 in 3 think the province is headed in the right direction (still not great) but up 7 points since December.

5. The top issues remain the cost of living, healthcare, the economy, taxes, and housing. UCP supporters are more likely to rate the cost of living, the economy, taxes, and standing up for Alberta against the federal government as top issues than NDP supporters. NDP supporters are more likely to rate healthcare, housing, and climate change as top issues.

6. When we ask people which party they trust most on several issues, the UCP has a big advantage on defending oil and gas workers, standing up to Ottawa, keeping taxes low, managing the economy, and attracting business to the province. The NDP has an advantage on healthcare, climate change, and reducing inequality.

7. Impressions of Danielle Smith have improved since December. Today, 37% have a positive view of the Premier while 41% have a negative view for a net rating of -4. In December, her rating was -12.

For Rachel Notley, her negatives are up slightly, but more people continue to have a positive view of the NDP leader than a negative view. Her net favourable rating is +6, down from +10 in December.

8. Those who think Danielle Smith has been a better or similar premier to Jason Kenney has increased. Today, 50% of Albertans feel that Danielle Smith has been better or about the same as Jason Kenney, up 9 points since December. Among past UCP voters, those feeling she’s been better than Kenney is up 5-points to 44%. 23% of past UCP voters feel she has been worse then Kenney.

9. In the last report, I identified a key segment of the electorate called Reluctant UCPers. They are folks who voted UCP in 2019 but now say they are undecided or would vote for another party. Back in December, that group represented 16% of the electorate. Today, it’s down to 13%. Local UCPers – those who voted UCP in 2019 and support the party today – is up 5 points to 32%.

THE UPSHOT

In a short period of time, Danielle Smith and the UCP have successfully and positively shifted public opinion in Alberta. More people view Danielle Smith positively and the 9-point gap in vote intention that we measured in December has been entirely erased. The environment remains competitive however and the election outcome is far from certain. Calgary remains the battleground where this election will likely be won or lost.

The survey data clearly points to the impact that issue framing and salience will have on voting behaviour. If the next election is fundamentally about economic management, taxes, or standing up to Ottawa – the UCP is in a stronger position to capitalize on those issues. If, however, healthcare is the dominant issue – the NDP is much better positioned to win. This might explain why Danielle Smith chose not to pick a fight with Justin Trudeau while in Ottawa this week for the healthcare talks. Instead, she would be wise to focus on economic competitiveness, taxes, and being seen as the best able to stand up for Alberta’s interests.

As of now, Danielle Smith appears less risky than she did to many in December. The UCP’s effort to rebuild its landslide-creating coalition is bearing fruit. There are still plenty of Reluctant UCPers to convert, but they are much closer to locking in re-election than appeared when we last measured opinions in December.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 Alberta adults from February 1 to 6, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT DAVID COLETTO

David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.

He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Is Love in the Air?

One of the perks of working at a polling firm is the ability to ask questions about anything. This gives us a unique lens into Canadians’ thoughts on a number of important issues, but also things like when it’s socially appropriate to move in together or meet the parents.

For Valentine’s Day this year, we explored some of these more light-hearted questions.

First up is what we are planning to do this Valentine’s Day. Among Canadians who are in relationships, 64% are planning to celebrate Valentine’s Day this year. Most are choosing to mark the day with a dinner or other date, a third are exchanging cards and gifts.

Beyond celebrating Valentine’s Day, what about other relationship milestones? How long should you wait before saying ‘I love you’, or moving in together? It turns out there isn’t much consensus.

How long should you wait before saying ‘I love you’?  26% say less than a month, 27% say 1-3 months, 22% say 4-6 months.

What about meeting their family? Half say this should happen by your three-month anniversary.

And most Canadians say you should move in and get engaged within 1-2 years.

Finally, a few more thoughts on love.

Half of Canadians believe in finding ‘the one’, on par with our results from last year. Conservatives are much more likely to believe in this idea, NDP voters are much less likely.

Love doesn’t always mean marriage though. 42% say marriage is really important to them, 28% say maybe, and 30% say not at all. Interestingly, there are no discernable differences between age groups or gender.

What about those of us who are still single? A few years ago, singlism was a popular phrase. The term, coined by a proudly single author, is used to describe society’s favouritism towards individuals in relationships.

A good number of Canadians believe this phenomenon exists- 31% say yes, 38% say maybe. Unsurprisingly, single people are more inclined to say singlism exists (40% say yes).

THE UPSHOT

All in all, it seems like Canadians are cautiously optimistic about love. A majority of those in relationships will be marking the holiday of love with a celebration of some sort. And regardless of relationship status, most of us believe in the concept of true love, at least somewhat.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 27 to 30, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



MediaPolls

The Canadian Consumer Mindset in the Age of Permacrisis

We are already a month into the year, and it seems we are still holding our collective breath about what is to come financially for 2023.  The labour market is still tight, inflation is running high (although it seems to be turning around expect for food and rent), interest rates jumped again just last week and may be holding for a while, and the shortage economy continues to cause disruption. As we brace for some kind of impact, Canadians are starting to make changes for a potential downturn.

We conducted a national survey in mid-January to better understand how Canadian consumers are feeling as the year started. As researchers, we know how important perceptions are for understanding opinions and behaviour.  And as it stands, the majority of Canadians aren’t confident about the economic big picture. Most Canadians predict a recession will hit in the next year- 46% predict the economy will shrink over the next 12 months.

History tells us that prices of consumer goods tend to drop during recessionary periods, but Canadians anticipate high prices will continue throughout the year. 54% say the price of food will continue to rise over the next year. 40% say energy prices will rise over the next 12 months.

As a result, Canadians are making changes to their spending and savings habits to brace for what is to come.

On the savings front, reoccurring expenses are being targeted. A third of Canadians have cancelled a monthly subscription in the last 4 to 6 weeks. But most Canadians are already at their limit, and rather than cutting expenses are looking on how to stretch their money further.

One in five Canadians have skipped a bill or paid less than minimum due for a bill in the last 4 to 6 weeks. A fifth have also increased their credit card balance to cover essential expenses.

These pressures are also impacting our savings habits both in the short term and long term. For the past 12 months, half of Canadians have reduced their savings (either drawing from savings, or reducing the amount added). Families making $50K or less and parents of children under 18 are most likely to be dipping into their savings to make ends meet.

Canadians are also making changes to the funds left in savings. Of those with investible assets, 7% told us they lowered the risk profile of their investment savings in the last 4 to 6 weeks. Another 24% of Canadians are considering it. Among Canadians with investment savings, nearly half (43%) have reduced the risk profile of their investments or are considering doing so. 

It’s clear that the financial outlook is impacting consumer behaviour but what if it were to quickly take a turn for the worse?

If they lost their job tomorrow, 20% of Canadians would only be able to live for a week on their savings. 42% wouldn’t be able to make it past a month. Millions of Canadians are living at their financial limit, even with their efforts to pinch pennies. Assessing the impact of this new consumer mindset – one where far more are being asked to do more with less while also balancing the pent up demand left over from the pandemic – is more important than ever for business leaders and policy makers.

THE UPSHOT

“There are a number of reasons to be concerned about the current financial outlook but one reason is just how many Canadians are living on the edge. One in five aren’t able to keep up with payments, even after making cuts to their spending. And very few Canadians are able to make adjustments on the savings front- 20% don’t even have enough savings to last more than a week.  Consumers are well aware of the position they are in- governments and institutions should be paying attention to.”

“The Canadian consumer mindset today is one of a split brain. Millions are having to cut back their day-to-day spending to respond to rising interest rates, inflation, and the prospect of a recession. At the same time, we also know that many also have big plans – things they want to do but couldn’t because of the pandemic. Some have called it “revenue inflation spending” – when consumers cut spending on day-to-day products and services but continue to splurge on travel, experiences, and luxury items.

Most important to any consumer facing brand is the need to deliver exceptional customer service when labour and product shortages make this harder to do. A hospitality mindset, focused on delighting customers will drive revenue and profitability, especially when almost half of Canadian consumers believe that customer service generally has gotten worse over the past few years.”

For more information about this data, or to schedule a briefing with your team, please reach out to Oksana Kishchuk.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 27 to 30, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Consumer BehaviourPublic Policy

Conservatives open up an 8-point lead over the Liberals as 70%+ Canadians don’t think the Liberal government is focused enough on the cost of living, healthcare or housing.

From January 27 to 30, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. The survey asked several questions about the political landscape that we track as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Here’s what we found:

THE PUBLIC MOOD CONTINUES TO WORSEN
Today, fewer Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction than at any point in the past three years. 30% think things are going in the right direction while more than half think things are off on the wrong track. Canadians are even less optimistic about the direction of the United States or the world overall.

SATISFACTION WITH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT LARGELY UNCHANGED
Today, 34% approve, and 49% disapprove of the performance of the federal government, a two-point rise in disapproval since earlier this month. Disapporval of the government has hovered between 47% and 51% since the summer of 2022.

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THE LIBERAL GOVERNMENT’S FOCUS
In this survey, we asked Canadians whether they felt the Liberal government was focused too much, as much as they should be, or not focused enough on several issues.

The objective was to understand how well the government is aligning with the public’s priorities.

Given that the Liberals need only about 40% of the popular vote to win a majority government in our electoral system, a result lower than 35% to 40% in the “focused as much as they should be” category should be considered an area of vulnerability for the Liberals. On that measure, the Liberals are believed to be not focusing enough on the rising cost of living, the cost of housing, healthcare, growing the economy, reducing the deficit, improving public services, and the threat posed by China.

The government is closer to an equilibrium on climate change, crime and public safety, reducing racism and inequality, indigenous reconciliation, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

When we focus only on current Liberal supporters, we find a similar pattern. Close to half of Liberal supporters (those who say in our survey they would vote Liberal today) think the government isn’t focused enough on the rising cost of living, the cost of housing, and the healthcare system. On other issues, the proportion who don’t think it’s focused enough falls to 30% or below.

Among another group of the electorate – accessible Liberals – we see the same kind of result. A large majority of accessible Liberals don’t think the government is focused enough on housing, the cost of living, or healthcare. Over 40% don’t think it’s focused enough on growing the economy, improving public services, or crime and public safety.

WHAT IF THE CONSERVATIVES WERE IN POWER? ISSUE FOCUS
We then asked Canadians whether they thought Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives would focus more, less, or about the same as the Liberals on the same set of issues.

Again, if 35% or more think the Conservatives would focus on the issue more than the Liberals, that would be an effective “sword issue” for the Conservatives. If a similar number feel they would focus on that issue less, that would suggest a “shield issue” for the opposition.

For the Conservatives, Canadians are more likely to believe they would focus more than the Liberals on reducing the deficit, growing the economy, dealing with the cost of living, the cost of housing, and public safety. In contrast, more think they would be less focused than the Liberals on indigenous reconciliation, climate change, and reducing racism and inequality.

Among accessible Conservatives – those open to voting Conservative but don’t support the party now – over 40% think the party would be more focused than the Liberals are on the economy, housing, reducing the deficit and reducing the cost of living.

This analysis is helpful to understand how issue salience may impact voting behaviour in the future. If voters are focused on the economy or the cost of living, the Conservatives are likely to benefit as many swing voters think they will focus more on that issue than the Liberals and many feel the Liberals aren’t focused enough on those issues.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE END OF THE 2021 ELECTION
Despite Canadians being more anxious about the direction of the country, the desire for change is holding steady and is in line with the end of the 2021 campaign. 50% of Canadians definitely want a change of government while 14% definitely want the Liberals re-elected. The five-point drop in those who definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected is noteworthy however and confirms other data that shows a decrease in enthusiasm for the Liberal government and Prime Minister Trudeau specifically.

FEELINGS ABOUT THE PM TRENDING NEGATIVELY
Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau have remained relatively stable over the past few months although the trend is a slight rise in negatives. Today, the Prime Minister’s net favourable rating is -19 with 31% having a positive impression and 50% having a negative impression of him. Among Liberal supporters, his net rating is +75.

JAGMEET SINGH’S DISSAPPROVAL HITS A NEW HIGH; BUT HE’S VERY POPULAR WITH NDP SUPPORTERS
For the last couple of years, Jagmeet Singh has been the most popular of the federal leaders, at one time his net rating was +21 (46% positive/25% negative). Since then, his positives have slid, and his negatives risen to the point today where there are equal numbers who have a positive and negative impression of Singh. This is the first time ever in our tracking that Singh’s net favourable is not positive. Among NDP supporters, his net rating is +84.

PIERRE POILIEVRE: ONE-THIRD POSITIVE, ONE-THIRD NEGATIVE, & ONE-THIRD NEUTRAL
Over the past month, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have not changed much. His negatives are down a single point while his positives are up two points. His net favourable rating is -3. Another 21% have a neutral view of the Conservative leader while 12% say they don’t know enough about him to have a view. Among Conservative supporters, his net rating is +70.

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION
If an election were held today, 37% would vote for the Conservative Party (up 2 since earlier this month), 29% for the Liberal Party (down 2), 18% for the NDP and 7% for the BQ. Since the 2022 election, support for the Liberal Party is down 4 while the Conservatives have gained 3 points.

The Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives also have a small 2-point advantage in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals and BQ are tied with the Conservatives in third at 22%.

This is the largest lead we have measured for the Conservatives since the 2015 election.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “Over the past few weeks the opinion environment has become more hostile to the federal Liberals. More think the country is headed in the wrong direction than at any point in the past few years, 50% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, and large majorities don’t feel the Liberal government is focused enough on the most important issues of the day – inflation, housing, and healthcare.

The effect is that the Conservatives have opened up the biggest vote intention lead since the Liberals were elected in 2015 with large leads in the West while being competitive in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The Liberal lead in Quebec we measured a few weeks is now gone.

This Conservative lead is more about dissatisfaction with the Liberals than enthusiasm for the Conservatives. Pierre Poilievre’s personal image has neither improved nor deteriorated – perhaps a win given the environment. But he’s benefiting from a Liberal brand that’s suffering from a weakened anchor (the Prime Minister and Liberal Leader) and deteriorating issue ownership.

The NDP’s vote share is holding steady at 18% despite Jagmeet Singh’s negatives continuing to rise. This is the first time ever that his net favourables are not positive. His support for the Liberal government has all but erased any goodwill that Conservative-oriented Canadians had for Mr. Singh. Not likely an issue for the party but his long-term hold on the title of Canada’s most popular national leader is now in doubt. However, Mr. Singh continues to hold the title of “most liked by his own party” with a net rating of +84 (Trudeau +75, Poilievre +70).

For the Liberals, these numbers should be a warning that they are losing the empathy game. Many Canadians – including their own supporters – don’t think they are focused enough on the core pocketbook issues and the crisis in healthcare that are occupying people’s attention. Turning that perception around should be job number one for the government.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 27 to 30, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. in partnership with the Toronto Star.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Flexibility is now table stakes for Canadian workers, especially women.

A new study by Abacus Data on behalf of The Honest Talk finds that the pandemic has significantly changed the way Canadians view work and the workplace. The survey of more than 1,300 working adults in Canada reveals that 69% of respondents feel their work-life has changed in some way as a result of the pandemic and nearly half say that change is for the better.

The study found that flexibility is key when it comes to current employment and future opportunities, especially for women. 72% of female respondents said that work-from-home (WFH) flexibility is extremely or quite important when searching for a job today.

If given the choice, women would choose to work from home 65% of the time, which is 13-points higher on average than men. The gender gap holds for parents with younger kids (under 15). Moms want to spend 64% of the time working from home compared with 51% among dads.

When asked to choose between money and several other factors, being able to WFH had the biggest pull. 36% of respondents would give up more money if it meant they could work from home as much as they like. Among women, this rises to 42%, which is 10 points higher than men.

The study also found that Canadians welcome many of the changes caused by the pandemic with open arms because they made their lives better overall, not just their working life. Half (48%) of those who said their work-life changed because of the pandemic reported that those changes were positive. Only a minority (20%) say their work-life is worse off because of the pandemic. 51% say the pandemic had a positive impact on their work-life balance, 53% said it had positive changes on the amount of free time they had, and 56% said it had a positive impact on the time they spent with their family. 41% said it had a positive influence on the relationship between work and mental health.

Canadians would rather stick with their new, post-pandemic work life than go back to how things were.  41% would keep the changes that have happened, 35% would want things how they were before the pandemic, while 24% are unsure what they would prefer. Women were more likely than men to prefer keeping the work-life they have today than going back to how it was before the pandemic (44% vs. 39%). Employers who want to recruit and retain women must recognize that flexibility is now table stakes.

The Upshot

The study suggests that flexibility in working arrangements, particularly the ability to work from home, is highly valued by Canadian workers, especially women. For some, the ability to work from home at least some of the time is more important than how much money they might make. We have clearly entered the Flexibility Era and in a labour market with almost a million job vaccines, those who can offer flexibility will be seen are more appealing – especially since most Canadian workers think their work lives are better today than before the pandemic.

For the full report or a briefing from our team, please contact Yvonne Langen.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,313 working Canadian adults 1from January 12 to 16, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population of working adults according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

The survey was sponsored by The Honest Talk.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Workplace

Conservatives lead Liberals by 4 as inflation, healthcare, and the economy in focus.

If an election were held today, 35% would vote for the Conservative Party, 31% for the Liberal Party, 18% for the NDP, and 7% for the BQ. There have been little change since the end of November.

The Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the BQ by 7 points while the Liberals are well ahead in Atlantic Canada.

In Ontario (where we surveyed 1,000 respondents), the Liberals lead the Conservatives by four points in Toronto (40% to 36%) and 3-points in the region surrounding Toronto.

SATISFACTION WITH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT LARGELY UNCHANGED

Today, 34% approve, and 47% disapprove of the performance of the federal government, largely unchanged from the end of November. Since July 2022, the federal government’s approval rating has hovered in a band between 33% and 38%.

Regionally, the government’s approval rating is 34% in BC, 24% in Alberta, 21% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 37% in Ontario, 36% in Quebec, and 35% in Atlantic Canada.

TOP ISSUES: INFLATION, HEALTH & THE ECONOMY

The top three issues of concern continue to be the rising cost of living (72% selected it as their top 3), healthcare (51%), and the economy (44%). Housing affordability and accessibility is not far behind in fourth at 41%.

Since the end of November, there hasn’t been much change in the top issues with housing affordability rising 3-points and climate change and the environment dropping 3 points. Just about 1 in 4 Canadians rate climate change and the environment as a top issue.

For Liberal Party supporters, the top issues are inflation (66%), healthcare (53%), the economy (42%), and housing (41%). They are 21 points more likely to rate climate change as a top issue than Conservative supporters (35% vs. 14%).

Conservative Party supporters rank inflation (80%), the economy (59%), healthcare (54%), and housing (36%) as the top issues of concern. Conservative supporters are 7-points more likely than Liberals to rate crime as a top issue (19% vs. 12%), 14-points more likely to rate “a lack of freedom” as a top issue (16% vs. 2%) and 17-points more likely to rate the economy as a top issue (59% vs. 42%) than the Liberals.

When asked which party would do the best on the issues they selected, the Conservatives lead on the economy (by 28 points over the Liberals), lack of freedom in Canada (45 to 9), and crime and public safety (40 to 17).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives among those who rate the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a top issue (34 to 22).

On the top issue of the rising cost of living, the Conservatives have a substantial advantage over the other parties. 31% picked the Conservatives followed by the NDP at 17% and the Liberals at 16%.

The three main parties are within a few points of each other on healthcare while the NDP is eight points ahead of the Conservatives on housing affordability.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE END OF THE 2021 ELECTION

Today, 51% of Canadians definitely want to see a change in government while another 10% would like to see change but say it’s not that important to them. In contrast, 38% would like to see the Liberals re-elected but only 14% say they definitely want the Liberals re-elected.

Compared to the end of the 2021 federal election campaign, the intense desire for change is unchanged while those wanting to definitely see the Liberals re-elected is down 5-points.

FEELINGS ABOUT THE PM ARE STABLE BUT STILL NEAR THE LOW POINT

Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau have stabilized but remain lower than at any point since 2015. The Prime Minister’s negatives stand at 49% – down from a peak of 51% – and up only a single point from last month.

JAGMEET SINGH’S APPROVAL RATING UP SLIGHTLY

For the last couple of years, Jagmeet Singh has been the most popular of the federal leaders, at one time his net rating was +21 (46% positive/25% negative). Since then, his positives have slid, and his negatives have risen. This latest result shows a slight improvement in his positives – up 2 points since the end of November.

PIERRE POILIEVRE: MANY STILL DON’T HAVE AN OPINION

Over the past two months, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have not changed much. His negatives are steady at 35% while his positives are down only slightly by 2 points to 29%

TRUDEAU vs. POILIEVRE

One of the things we are starting to track again is the preference for either Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Poilievre as Prime Minister. Today, 54% of Canadians would prefer Mr. Trudeau as Prime Minister while 46% would prefer Mr. Poilievre.

Regionally, Mr. Trudeau is the preferred choice of half or more in BC (54%), Ontario (53%), Quebec (66%), and Atlantic Canada (65%). Mr. Poilievre is the preferred choice by half or more in Alberta (61%), and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62%).

Among current NDP supporters, Trudeau is preferred by a 4 to 1 margin (72% to 28%). Among BQ supporters, Trudeau is preferred 69% to 31% over Poilievre.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “As the new year begins, political opinions in Canada look remarkably similar to what it was around the end of the year.  The Conservatives continue to sustain a lead over the Liberals nationally but the Liberals remain competitive or lead east of the Ontario/Manitoba border. The Prime Minister’s personal image remains as negative as it has been since the Liberal Party’s first election win in 2015 but he is still preferred to Pierre Poilievre by 8 points in a head-to-head hypothetical match-up.

Most troubling for the Liberals in these numbers are the issue performance questions. Among those who say inflation is a top issue, the Liberals are in third, well behind the Conservatives and slightly behind the NDP on which party people think would do the best on it. The Liberals also trail among those who rate the economy, healthcare or housing as a top issue. Perhaps most worrisome, is the Liberals only own a single issue – the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The challenge is that only 6% of Canadians rank it in their top 3 issues – lower than any other issue we test for.

Why does this matter? Issue ownership is a strong predictor of vote choice. Voters, especially uncommitted or swing voters, tend to vote for the party they think will do the best job on the issue they care most about. Right now, if a federal election focused on inflation or the cost of living, the Liberals would be in a tough position to be re-elected. The Liberals will need to shift these perceptions or hope the issues in focus shift

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,099 Canadian adults from January 12 to 16, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Are Canadians Stepping Into 2023 on the Right Foot?

For many of us, a new year symbolizes a fresh start. A time for resolutions, resets and redefining our goals. But we are curious, are Canadians starting 2023 off on the right foot? How many of us had a positive mindset heading into 2023? Well, we looked into our happiness monitor numbers for some insights.

Heading into 2023 the average happiness score was 6.56.

The average Canadian ranks their happiness at a 6.56/10. Happiness is tied to:

  • Gender- men are much happier than women
  • Age- those 60+ are much happier than the rest of us
  • Location- those in Quebec are much happier than average

Happiness and money concerns are linked.

Inflation and the rising cost of living continue to be significant stressors for many Canadians. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that financial situations are linked to our happiness.

Happiness is tied to:

  • Income- a household income of $100k or higher means higher levels of happiness
  • Worries about inflation- higher than average happiness for those who are not worried, lower than average happiness for those who are very worried about inflation

Things aren’t all bad. Our end-of-year happiness scores have been slowly increasing over the last three years.

This is the happiest ‘new year’ we’ve had in three years.

We’ve been measuring the happiness of Canadians for the last three years, and this past December was our happiest yet. Whether it be the increase in gatherings over the holidays this year or our emergence (hopefully) from COVID, Canadians are starting this new year off on a better foot than years before.

THE UPSHOT

As we enter 2023 a lot lies ahead. Canada, and the world is poised for a lot of negatives, but also positives. It seems Canadians have chosen to focus their outlook on the later, focusing on the new beginning and a chance for a reset that the new year offers.

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with 1,656 Canadian adults from December 9th to 14th 2022.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.408%, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.408%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Media