Evaluating Canadian Interest: Energy-Efficient Homes in the Housing Landscape

From August 18 to 23, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,205 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of energy-efficient housing.

As we contemplate the foremost concerns occupying the thoughts of Canadians, it remains evident that housing and climate change consistently occupy prime positions. With mounting pressure to bolster housing construction nationwide, it becomes imperative to deliberate on how we can address housing challenges without compromising our environmental commitments.

In this survey, we investigated Canadian interest in energy-efficient homes, their motivations for considering (or not considering) such homes, and the specific technologies and products that pique their curiosity. The findings underscore Canadians’ appetite for energy efficiency in homes, although their primary motivation may not necessarily revolve around environmental concerns.

Decision to Purchase a New Home

Among Canadians, few intend to purchase a home within the next year (4%) with only 12% intending to purchase in the next 2-3 years. The decision to purchase a new home farther down the road is highest among young Canadians (38% intend to do so in the next 4 to 10 years), while 46% of older Canadians (60+) are in their forever homes. These relatively low intent purchase intent rates are likely due to the challenges many Canadians face with respect to housing affordability and availability.

Interest in Purchasing an Energy Efficient Home

Among individuals planning to buy a home in the coming years, 59% expressed the importance of having an energy-efficient home. In contrast, only 7% stated that energy efficiency was not a priority for their future home. Notably, Canadians aged 30-44 (61%), 45-59 (68%), and 60 and older (71%) were significantly more inclined to consider the importance of purchasing an energy-efficient home compared to those aged 18-29 (47%). Regionally, respondents from British Columbia (61%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (72%), Ontario (60%), and Atlantic Canada (77%) were more likely to emphasize the significance of acquiring an energy-efficient home, while those in Quebec (40%) placed relatively less importance on this aspect.

Reasons to (or not to) Purchase an Energy Efficient Home

Among those who are interested in an energy-efficient home, the primary driver in doing so is significant cost savings (65% included in top 3 reasons). Additionally, 41% of respondents express interest in energy-efficient homes to safeguard against rising energy expenses. Beyond financial considerations, 38% of respondents are drawn to energy-efficient homes as a means of promoting sustainable living, while an equal percentage aims to minimize their environmental footprint. These findings indicate that most prospective homebuyers are primarily motivated by the tangible financial benefits of energy-efficient homes, notably the potential for substantial savings.

Among those who emphasized that an energy-efficient home was not a priority, a substantial 55% prominently cited concerns about higher upfront costs as one of their top three reasons, while 43% pointed to the perception that energy-efficient homes demand more maintenance. In aggregate, 79% of respondents placed concerns about costs and maintenance at the forefront of their top three considerations. Although it is essential to approach these findings cautiously due to a relatively smaller sample size, it is important to highlight that the prevailing barriers linked to energy-efficient homes are unequivocally cost-related and maintenance-related.

Home Upgrades of Interest

When we look at the features that are of interest to potential home buyers, some clear preferences stand out.

First, 64% of those surveyed prefer homes with high levels of insulation. At the same time, 64% also like the idea of double-pane windows, which help moderate temperatures and save energy. In addition to this, 64% of respondents are interested in high-efficiency HVAC systems. This indicates that advanced heating and cooling solutions are a big deal for future homes.

Beyond these key considerations, the survey revealed that 63% of respondents prefer homes with energy-efficient LED lighting, with another 63% who are interested in Energy Star appliances. This shows a strong commitment to sustainability and using less energy in their homes.

Willingness to Pay for Energy-Efficient Upgrades

Moving from interest to actual investment, it is important to explore what homebuyers are truly open to purchasing. The front-runner in this regard is energy-efficient LED lighting. To be precise, among those who said they were interested in LED lighting, 80% would be willing to buy it. Right behind, 77% of those interested in smart thermostats are willing to make the purchase. These results may be due to the perception that LED lighting and smart thermostats are affordable and easy to find.

Moreover, 76% of prospective home buyers expressed their intention to invest in Energy Star Appliances. Energy Star appliances have been shown to bring monthly savings to homeowners due to their energy efficiency, which is a strong motivator for those seeking energy-efficient housing.

On the other hand, when it comes to bigger investments like geothermal heat pumps, solar panels, and heat recovery ventilation (HRV) systems, the willingness to purchase drops to 55% (among those interested in these products). These higher-cost items, while undoubtedly effective in enhancing energy efficiency, seem to prompt more careful consideration among prospective buyers. This reflects the delicate balance between cost, long-term benefits, and environmental consciousness.

The Upshot

In the housing realm, most Canadians are interested in owning an energy-efficient home. This interest is largely driven by the promise of real financial benefits like lower utility bills and protection from rising energy costs, followed by eco-conscious motivations. This presents a prime opportunity for organizations to emphasize these personal advantages alongside the environmental impact.

While most are enthusiastic about energy-efficient homes, there’s a small group that remains unconvinced. Their main concern? The perception of higher upfront costs. It’s important to bridge this gap by educating consumers about the long-term savings and benefits as it will provide them with actionable information to make informed decisions on.

Moving beyond interest in energy-efficient homes and technology, it’s crucial to grasp what prospective homebuyers are truly willing to invest in. Expressing interest doesn’t always translate into action, especially when considering higher-cost items. The findings indicate that while potential homebuyers express high interest in products like high-efficiency HVAC systems, high levels of insulation, or energy-efficient heat pumps, they lean more towards considering readily-available, lower-cost items like LED lighting and smart thermostats when it comes to making actual purchases.

Overall, educating buyers about the importance and benefits of energy-efficient homes is vital for builders, as it not only enhances marketability but also cultivates a deeper understanding of their lasting value. Builders wield substantial influence in shaping the housing landscape and consumer choices, making this education pivotal in fostering sustainable living.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,205 Canadian adults from August 18 to 23, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsHousingNews / MediaPolitics

Conservatives open up a 14-point lead over the Liberals as Poilievre’s personal rating turns positive

From August 29 to September 4, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,595 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Ontario to a total of 2,010, BC to 700, and Atlantic Canada to 521 (we will be oversampling Atlantic Canada regularly to make sure we get a more accurate read of that region).

As Conservative activists are set to meet today in Quebec at their national convention, our tracking finds the party has opened up its largest lead over the Liberals since the 2015 election.

If an election were held today, 40% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 30% in Quebec.

Since our last survey a two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up 2 while the Liberal and NDP vote share is unchanged.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in every region except for Quebec. They have big leads in Western Canada, a 7-point lead in Ontario, and a 10-point lead in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Liberals (28%) and BQ (30%) are statistically tied, but the Conservatives are not far behind at 25%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Toronto while the Conservatives lead in the GTHA, eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. Note, the sample size in northern Ontario is quite small so caution should be used when making any conclusions about ballot support in that region.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women. The Conservatives have an 11-point lead among those aged 18 to 29, a 17-point lead among those 30 to 44, and a 16-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. Among those 60+, they lead but by a smaller 9-point margin.

Among men, the Conservatives lead by 22-points and lead by 6 among women.

What is driving the Conservative lead?

As we have highlighted in the past, this sizeable national Conservative lead is being caused by two factors.

The primary driver, in our view, is the negative impression people have of the Liberal government and Prime Minister Trudeau.

The mood of the country remains decidedly negative. Only 1 in 4 feel the country is headed in the right direction.

The federal government’s approval rating remains at its weakest since 2015. 1 in 3 approve (31%) while half (53%) disapprove.

The Prime Minister’s net favourable rating is -24, unchanged from last wave and consistent with polling over the past four months. Note, at the end of the 2021 campaign, Justin Trudeau’s net favourable was -6.

Finally, 83% of Canadians want to see a change in government and only 17% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Those who say it’s time for a change and feel there is a good alternative to the Liberals is up 3 points since mid-August and is numerically the highest we’ve tracked since June at 51%. 1 in 3 continue to want change but aren’t completely comfortable with the alternatives.

But the growth in Conservative support is not just being driven by dissatisfaction with the Liberals. We also have seen a significant improvement in impressions of Pierre Poilievre over the past month. For the first time in our tracking, more people have a positive view of Poilievre than have a negative one. His net favourable is +2 with 36% having a positive view and 34% having a negative one. Since early August, Poilievre’s negatives are down 4 points while his positives are up 6.

When we look specifically at the demographic breakout, we find he has a net favourable rating among men (+10) and among younger Canadians while his image is negative among women (-8) and older Canadians 60+ (-10). We have seen an improvement in positive impressions for Poilievre across all these groups, with the biggest gains among men (+6) and those aged 18 to 44 (+7).

It’s also worth noting that the Conservatives have a larger accessible voter pool than the Liberals. Today 51% of Canadians say they are open to voting Conservative compared with 46% for the Liberals and 44% for the NDP. For comparison, the accessible voter pool for the Conservatives at the start of the year (January 2023) was 47%.

Deep dive: Does the Liberal government have a plan?

In this survey, we also added a new question asking people if they thought the Liberal government and Justin Trudeau has a good plan, a bad plan, or no plan when it comes to several salient policy areas. The results overall are instructive and suggest most Canadians feel the government has either a bad plan or no plan to deal with most of the top issues facing the country.

For example, on managing the cost of living – by far the top issue for Canadians – only 1 in 5 feel the Liberals have a good plan to deal with the issue. Another 33% say they have a bad plan while 35% think the government has no plan.

Views are the same when it comes to building more housing and making it more affordanle – only 1 in 5 think the government has a good plan. The rest think it has a bad plan (26%) or no plan (39%).

And what about the economy? 25% think it has a good plan, 25% think it has a bad plan while 31% think it has no plan.

The only two areas where there’s some sense the government has a good plan is when it comes to supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion (36% good plan, 26% bad plan, and 17% no plan) and climate change (29% good plan, 34% bad plan, 20% no plan).

But the results are even more concerning for the Liberals if you focus in on only those open to voting Liberal – the 46% of who say they would consider voting Liberal. Among this key audience for the Liberals, a sizeable proportion feel it has a bad or no plan when it comes to the cost of living (49%), housing (47%), or growing the economy (34%).

The implication of this is quite clear: the government hasn’t done enough or at the very least hasn’t communicated its plan or vision clearly and effectively enough. About half of those who are open to voting Liberal don’t think it has a good plan to deal with the issues they are worried most about. That’s sums up the problem facing the Liberals today.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Chair & CEO, David Coletto: “Our latest survey finds the Conservatives continuing to gain ground as the negative assessment of the Liberal government, the Prime Minister, and the state of the country holds. As Conservatives gather in Quebec today, momentum is clearly on their side.

Many Canadians are unhappy with the direction the country is taking and are skeptical of the Liberals’ ability to address key issues. Many don’t think the Liberals even have a plan to deal with the issues they care most about. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are benefiting not only from the Liberals’ decline but also from a rising positive perception of their leader, Pierre Poilievre. In the absence of a sustained counternarrative from his opponents, Poilievre’s introduction to many Canadians is bearing fruit and the Conservative leader finds himself in a stronger position than any of his predecessors at this point in their leadership mandates.

Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia in the coming weeks along with other data and insights on Canadian politics.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,595 Canadian adults from August 29 to September 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Ford’s PCs down 7-points since the end of July as the Greenbelt scandal bites

In partnership with the Toronto Star, we conducted a survey of 2,003 eligible voters in Ontario from August 29 to September 4, 2023 to measure the impact of the Greenbelt scandal on support for the Ontario PCs and the Ford government. Most of this survey was completed before news of Housing Minister Steve Clark’s resignation yesterday.

The survey finds that support for the PCs has dropped 4-points in just over a week from 38% to 34% and by 7-points since the end of July (41% to 34%). The Liberals are up 3-points to 28% while the NDP is up 2-points to 26%.

This is the lowest level of support we’ve measured for the Ontario PCs since the last provincial election.

Regionally, there’s a three-way tie in Toronto, the PCs are ahead by 7 in the GTHA, and the PCs and NDP are tied in southwestern ONtario. The PCs are ahead in the East while the Liberals are likely slightly ahead in the North, although a very small sample size in that region makes it hard to know confidentially what is happening.

Because we had a larger sample in the Greater Toronto Area, we could also break out results by region around Toronto. The PCs are slightly ahead in Durham Region, trail the Liberals in Halton and Milton, and are tied with the Liberals in Peel (Mississauga, Brampton, and Caledon). The PCs are ahead in York Region.

Demographically, the PCs are ahead by 12-points among men, are tied with the NDP and Liberals among women, and do far better among older voters than younger ones.

Comparing current vote intention with past voting behaviour, we find the PCs are holding onto 83% of its past support with the 17% splitting almost evenly across the opposition parties. The NDP is holding onto 84% of its support while the Liberals are holding onto 76% of its past support. No opposition party has really gained from the drop in PC support.

The Upshot

The Greenbelt scandal has very likely hurt support for the PCs. We will need to explore other measures in the coming weeks to see to what extent it has impacted people’s views of the government and the premier but a 7-point drop in support over the summer is significant. Whether this is the end to the bleeding remains to be seen. But so far, the PCs are in their weakest position since the resounding re-election in June 2022.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,003 eligible voters in Ontario adults from August 29 to September 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Gen Z – Top Issues Facing Canada

From August 18 to 23, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,189 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey includes oversamples in Ontario (n=1,068) and Atlantic Canada (n=289) as well as an oversample of Gen Z (ages 18-27) for a total of n=399.

Our latest poll shows a wide lead for the Conservatives that has been growing since May. The Conservatives lead in all regions of the province (aside from Quebec) and among both men and women.

The Conservatives also hold the lead amongst all generations- including Gen Z. Like Millennials, the NDP seem to be pulling more votes on the left, much more so than older generations.

One possible reason for this lies in the top issues by generation- and the issues the federal parties are choosing to focus on. Looking at Canadians’ top five issues, there is generational alignment but also generational divide.  

Canadians believe the most important issues facing Canada today are: the rising cost of living (73%), housing affordability and accessibility (47%), healthcare (45%), the economy (35%) and climate change and the environment (29%).

A similar number of Canadians from each generation agree on the importance of economic issues, both macro and micro, but there is a disconnect on the other top issues.

Unsurprisingly, but still worth noting, Gen Z and Millennials are much more likely to place housing affordability and accessibility in their top 3 issues compared to older generations.

What is surprising is the generational divide on climate change and the environment. Compared to Gen Z, Boomers are 7-pts more likely to place environment and climate change in their top 3 issues.

Gen Z are also much less likely to consider healthcare a top issue facing Canada.

Instead, Gen Z places a much greater emphasis on other social issues facing our country like inequality and poverty- one in four Gen Z in Canada place this in their top 3 issues, significantly higher than any other generation.

Gen Z (and Millennials) are also much more likely to say indigenous reconciliation is a top issue in Canada.

On all their top issues (aside from climate change) Gen Z says the Conservatives or NDP are best poised to address the issue, with the Conservative party best suited to address their economic concerns and the NDP best positioned to address the social issues they deem important.

The Upshot

The Liberals are struggling in the polls and right now it looks like Canada’s youngest voters aren’t going to be their saving grace. If an election was held today among the two youngest generations, the Liberals would fall to third party status.  

On affordability, Gen Z Canadians are looking for solutions to the housing crisis- or at least some reassurance that things won’t get (much) worse.

And on social issues Gen Z is keen to see action on poverty and inequality, just as much as solutions for climate change.

Having experienced two economic downturns and entering the workforce at a time when wages are significantly lagging, financial stability is important for the younger generation. Not just because they want to pay their bills on time, but to give them hope that the aspirations, and dreams that come with being young have a chance of being achievable.

Witnessing these events as they reach adulthood and consuming more, diverse coverage than any generation before has (thanks to social media) has also made many young people believe we can do better. When tackling issues that affect their own financial and future instability, Gen Z believes should look at addressing poverty and inequality too.

For any party to tap into the support of Canada’s youngest generation they need to come ready with a message and solutions that address their top-of-mind issues. Right now, the two parties doing it best are the Conservatives and NDP.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,189 Canadian adults from August 18 to 23, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsGenerational ChangeInsightsNews / MediaPolitics

Conservatives lead by 12 as only 27% think the Prime Minister should run again.

From August 18 to 23, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,189 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Ontario to a total of 1,068 and Atlantic Canada to 269 (we will be oversampling Atlantic Canada regularly to make sure we get a more accurate read of that region).

Our latest reading of political opinions in Canada finds the Conservatives opening up a 12-point lead over the Liberals, the largest lead for the Conservatives we have measured since the 2015 federal election. 38% would vote Conservative (up 1 since early August), 26% Liberal (down 2) and 19% would vote NDP (unchanged).

Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead by 19-points in British Columbia, 40-points in Alberta, and 22-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In all three regions/provinces, the Liberals are in third place with the NDP in second.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead by 8 while the BQ is slightly ahead in Quebec by 5 points over the Liberals. In Atlantic Canada, we have the two parties statistically tied with the Conservatives at 38% and the Liberals at 33%.

In Ontario, where we surveyed over 1,000 people, the Liberals lead by 6 in Toronto but trailed the Conservatives by 10 in the GTHA (postal codes that start with L). The two parties are tied in Eastern Ontario while the Conservatives have a 20-point lead in Southwestern Ontario.

The Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women.

Should Prime MInister Trudeau run again or step down and let someone else become Liberal leader and Prime Minister?

Overall, 56% of Canadians think Trudeau should step down and let someone else become Liberal leader and Prime Minister while 27% feel he should run again. 17% were unsure.

Quebecers were the most likely to want to see Trudeau run again (33%) while Albertans were the least likely (15%). 28% in Ontario and 26% in BC want the Prime Minister to run again.

But perhaps most striking, 1 in 4 of those who said they voted Liberal in 2021 want Trudeau to step down. Among this group, 46% would vote Liberal again but 35% would vote Conservative and 13% would vote NDP. Those saying they would vote Conservative or NDP constitute 4% of decided voters.

Impressions of Pierre Poilievre have improved

Finally, when we look at public impressions of the party leaders, we see a notable improvement in Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers. Today, 34% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader (up 4 in 2 weeks) while those with a negative view are down 3 to 35%. Both of these shifts are outside the margin of error. Poilievre’s net favourable rating is -1.

Justin Trudeau’s image is largely unchanged from last wave. 53% have a negative impression (a new high) while 29% have a positive view for a net favourable rating of -24.

Jagmeet Singh’s rating is also largely unchanged with 34% positive and 31% negative for a net rating of +3.

Who has seen the Conservative ad and how do people react?

We showed English speaking respondents the video below and asked whether they had seen the video and how it impacts their impression of Pierre Poilievre.

Overall, 28% of English speaking Canadians said they definitely recall seeing the ad with another 12% saying they think so. That’s a possible 40% penetration in just over two weeks.

When asked whether the video makes them feel better, worse, or it has no impact on their impression of Poilievre, 49% says it makes them feel better, 8% worse, and 42% say it doesn’t impact their views.

Younger Canadians were more likely to say the video improved their impression of Poilievre as did almost half of women. 54% of accessible Conservatives (those open to voting Conservative but wouldn’t vote for the party today) say the video makes them feel better about Poilievre.

Perhaps most important, 1 in 3 NDP and Liberal voters in 2021 say the video makes them feel better.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data Chair and CEO, David Coletto:

“Our most recent Abacus Data survey clearly underscores the changing dynamics in Canadian politics. The Conservatives are leading considerably, particularly in regions like British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Their lead in Ontario, combined with a tight race in Atlantic Canada, suggests that the party has garnered widespread appeal over the past few months and the shift wasn’t a blip and could be the new state of play. The fact that the Conservatives lead across all age groups and among both genders emphasizes a broad-based support.

These results underscore just how challenging the environment is for the Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau. TMore than half of Canadians believe it’s time for Prime Minister Trudeau to step aside, letting another leader take the reins of the Liberal party. Interestingly, even a significant portion of those who voted Liberal in 2021 now share this sentiment. This, combined with Trudeau’s net favourable rating being at -24, suggests that the Prime Minister may no longer be an asset for his party in its quest to win another election.

At the same time, there’s evidence in this survey that Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has improved his standing with Canadians over the past few weeks, with his net favourable rating now almost neutral. This is in stark contrast to Trudeau’s rating. Furthermore, the impressive penetration of the Conservative ad in just over two weeks, along with the largely positive reception (especially among younger Canadians and women), shows the potential long-term impact of this campaign – especially in the absence of a response from Poilievre’s opponents.

Even more striking is the ad’s positive reception among 2021 NDP and Liberal voters, indicating a potential shift in the electoral base. “

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,189 Canadian adults from August 18 to 23, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Has the Greenbelt scandal hurt the Ford PCs in Ontario?

In partnership with the Toronto Star, we conducted a survey of 1,040 Ontario adults from August 18 to 23, 2023 to explore public opinion about the Ford government and to assess whether the Greenbelt scandal has impacted public perceptions and opinions about the government and the Premier. Note, this survey was completed prior to the resignation of the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing’s chief of staff and the news that the RCMP is looking into the matter.

Here’s what we found:

Awareness of the Auditor General’s report is widespread although less than half are following the story closely.

Overall, 83% of Ontarians are aware of the Auditor General’s report into how the provincial government handled opening up land in the Greenbelt and 39% are following it pretty or very closely.

When asked how the report makes them feel about Doug Ford and the PC government, 51% say it makes them feel worse, 13% say it makes them feel better while 37% say it had no impact on their views.

Those living in the GTHA are the most likely to say it’s made their views of Ford and his government worse. Of note, 1 in 3 of those who voted PC in 2022 say their opinions of the PC government and Doug Ford are worse as a result of the report and the news surrounding it.

The PC government’s approval rating has taken a hit.

Today, 31% approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government while 47% disapprove. Since the end of July, those disapproving of the Ford government’s performance is up 4 points while approval is down 4 points.

Of note, those who strongly disapprove of the government is four times the number of those who strongly approve.

Views are fairly consistent across region and age group. Among 2022 PC voters, 15% disapprove of the job the government is doing while 23% of Ontario Liberal voters say they approve.

More think Doug Ford and the PC government make decisions to benefit friends and supporters today than did last month.

Last month we asked people whether they felt the decisions Doug Ford and the provincial government make are in the interests of people in the province or more in the interests of their friends and supporters.

Today, close to 6 in 10 Ontarians believe decisions are made more in the interests of Ford’s friends and supporters, up 5 points in a month. 26% feel he’s making decisions in the best interest of people living in the province (down 1) while 15% don’t know enough to say (down 4).

The widespread awareness of the issue likely accounts for the shift from “don’t know” to “helps his friends” in this case.

Despite all of this, the PCs still hold a healthy lead over the Ontario Liberals and NDP.

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the PCs would still win a majority and lead the Ontario Liberals by double digits. 38% of committed Ontarians would vote PC (down 3 from last month), 25% would vote for the Liberals and 24% would vote NDP. Note, the Liberals are currently in the middle of a leadership race so the dynamics of the ballot would likely change depending on who wins the leadership.

Regionally, the PCs are ahead in every region of the province from a 20-point lead in Southwestern Ontario to a smaller 6-point lead in the GTHA.

One reason the PC vote has head up so far is because the vast majority of its previous supporters are staying with the party. 85% of past PC supporters say they would vote PC today as would 11% of past Liberal supporters. Interestingly, 17% of past federal Liberal supporters say they would vote PC today.

The Upshot

According to David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data:

“The awareness and the subsequent impact of the Auditor General’s report on the government’s handling of the Greenbelt indicates a pronounced skepticism towards Doug Ford and the PC government. An overwhelming majority of Ontarians are aware of the report’s content, and this has played a pivotal role in influencing the perceptions of a significant portion of the population. Specifically, over half have indicated that the report has negatively impacted their view of the Ford administration, a sentiment especially pronounced in the GTHA. It’s crucial to highlight that even among those who voted PC in the last election, a considerable 1 in 3 have seen their views soured as a consequence of the report.

The report and news about it has dented the PC government’s approval ratings and further exemplifies the public’s discontent with the current administration. A considerable segment of the population, nearly half, disapproves of their performance, a figure that has been on the rise since July. The fact that the count of those who strongly disapprove is four times those who strongly approve underscores the gravity of dissatisfaction.

However, despite the evident challenges in the realm of public perception, the PCs still maintain a considerable electoral advantage. Their lead, even in the face of controversy and skepticism, is robust and extends across various regions in Ontario. A critical factor in this sustained lead is the loyalty of the PC voter base, with a vast majority of previous supporters expressing their intention to stick with the party. The potential of the Liberals to change the dynamics of the upcoming election depends significantly on their leadership race, suggesting that while the PCs are currently ahead, the political landscape remains fluid and can be influenced by new leadership and policy proposals from opposing parties.

So far this scandal has not been devistating to perceptions of Ford or the PC government but if this issue comes under criminal investigation and continues to play out over the next weeks and months, the damage could become far more extensive to the PC Party and Ford brands. We will keep monitoring public opinion with our partners at the Toronto Star.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,040 adults living in Ontario adults from August 18 to 23, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics