Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals and PCs are statistically tied as the cost of living and healthcare are in focus

From September 19 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey asked questions about both federal and provincial politics. This is the second report looking at provincial politics. On Thursday we released a look at federal politics in the province.

If a provincial election was held today, the NL Liberals would get 40% of the vote followed by the PCs at 38% and the NDP at 21%. Compared with the results of the last provincial election, the Liberals are down 8, the PCs down 1 and the NDP is up 13.

The Liberals are well ahead in western Newfoundland and Labrador, while the PCs are well ahead in eastern and central Newfoundland. On the Avalon Peninsula, the Liberals and PCs are statistically tied.

Demographically, the Liberals are ahead among women while the PCs lead among men. The PCs have a lead among those aged 45 to 59 while the Liberals are well ahead among those aged 60 and over. The two parties are about even among younger residents with the NDP doing best among those under 30.

When asked to rate the overall performance of the provincial government led by Andrew Furey, 37% approve while 35% disapprove. This is much better than how people feel about the performance of the federal government where 26% approve and 49% disapprove.

Views of the party leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador are all net positive. Premier Furey’s net favourable rating is +5 with 38% having a positive impression and 33% having a negative view.

NDP leader Jim Dinn’s net favourable is +17 with 30% positive and 13% negative. Interim PC Party leader David Brazil has a net favourable of +14 with 28% positive and 14% negative.

The top issues in the province are overwhelmingly the cost of living and healthcare. When asked to select the top three issues facing the province, 84% select the cost of living, 74% select healthcare, and 43% select housing affordability.

Cost of living is a top issue because so many residents are either living paycheque to paycheque or falling behind.

When asked to rate the provincial government’s performance in several policy areas, evaluations were mixed when it comes to education, growing the economy, and improving infrastructure. Views were more decidedly negative when it comes to managing the healthcare system, dealing with housing, and responding to the rising cost of living.

When asked specifically what is to blame for the rising close of living, NL residents point to multiple factors, but far more believe companies charging more to make more profits deserves much of the blame. Decisions by the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau, global supply chain shortages, and the pandemic are also frequently cited as major factors. Only 1 in 5 NL residents think decisions made by the provincial government and Premier Andrew Furey are to blame a lot.

When asked which factor is most to blame, 36% blame companies charging more to make more profit, 31% blame decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau., 16% blame the COVID-19 pandemic while only 3% blame decisions by the provincial government.

The PC Party Leadership Election

About 1 in 5 residents say they are following the PC Party leadership election very or somewhat closely. Among those who support the PC Party currently, that rises to 29%.

When asked their views on the three leadership candidates, most said they either didn’t know the candidates well enough to have an opinion or had a neutral impression.

Tony Wakeham had the highest awareness and net favourable while Lloyd Parrot had the lowest familiarity, and Manning had has the lowest net favourable.

Among PC supporters (not members), the results were somewhat similar. While PC supporters were more familiar with the candidates, impressions of all three candidates were generally positive. Tony Wakeham had more intensely positive views than the other two but Wakeham (+33), Manning (+31), and Parrot (+25) all had quite favourable net impressions.

When PC supporters were asked which candidate they would vote for if they were voting in the leadership election, 29% selected Wakeham, 16% Manning, and 7% Parrot. 48% said they didn’t know who they would vote for.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “Like in other jurisdictions across Canada, the cost of living is the focus for people living in Newfoundland and Labrador and no government is immune from it’s impact on political support.

Almost most residents feel that the provincial government is not handling that issue well, Premier Furey’s approval rating remains above water – more approve than disapprove. This is in sharp contrast with how people feel about the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau.

Premier Furey is generally well liked half-way into his second term as premier.

If an election was held today, it’s likely that we would see none of the parties winning an outright majority of seats as the Liberal vote share is down, the PC vote is steady with the last election while the NDP vote is up significantly.

So far, it appears the PC leadership election has not captivated the province. But if PC supporters had their choice, Tony Wakeham is the more favoured candidate.”

Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador from September 19 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Provincial Politics

Poll shows federal Conservatives take the lead in this province – NTV

Support for the federal Conservatives now stands at 42 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador, while the Liberals are at 33 per cent and the NDP at 23 … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://ntv.ca/poll-shows-federal-conservatives-take-the-lead-in-this-province/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw0j9yvn6w53Zt4eUqnqRCcf

Provincial Politics

Federal Conservatives lead by 9 in Newfoundland and Labrador

From September 19 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey asked questions about both federal and provincial politics. This is the first report looking at federal politics in the province. On Monday, we will look at the state of provincial politics in the province.

If a federal election was held today, the federal Conservatives would get 42% of the vote in Newfoundland and Labrador with the Liberals at 33% and the NDP 23%. Compared with the 2021 election results, this represents a 15-point drop for the Liberals, a 9-point gain for the Conservatives, and a 6-point gain for the NDP.

The Conservatives are well ahead in eastern and central Newfoundland, are tied with the Liberals in western Newfoundland and Labrador, and are slightly ahead of the NDP on the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s. The Conservatives are ahead among those aged 18 to 29 and 45 to 59, and statistically tied with the other parties among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals lead by 14-points among those aged 60 and over.

Among me, the Conservatives lead by 18 while the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP are in a tight three-way race with women.

The Conservative lead across the province is based on several factors.

First, the federal government’s net approval rating is -23 with 26% approving and 49% disapproving. Most worrisome for the federal Liberals, those who strongly disapprove are nine times more likely than those who strongly approve (28% vs. 3%).

Second, Justin Trudeau is by far the least popular leader in the province. 50% have a negative view of the Prime Minister compared with 29% who have a positive view (net = -20). This is slightly better than the national average for the Prime Minister, but not substantially so.

In contrast, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s net favourable rating is +20 (40% positive and 20% negative) while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers viewing him favourably and unfavourably (positive 33% vs. negative 34%).

The two federal cabinet ministers in NL have better net favourables than the Prime MInister. Seamus O’Regan is at +6 (32% positive vs. 26% negative) while Minister Gudie Hutchings is at -6 (18% positive vs. 24% negative). Minister O’Regan is more widely known than Minister Hutchings.

The top issues in the province are overwhelmingly the cost of living and healthcare. When asked to select the top three issues facing the province, 84% select the cost of living, 74% select healthcare, and 43% select housing affordability.

Cost of living is a top issue because so many residents are either living paycheque to paycheque or falling behind.

When asked to rate the federal government’s performance in several policy areas, evaluations were mixed when it comes to climate change, growing the economy, and improving roads and infrastructure. But on housing and the cost of living, about 3 in 4 NL residents say the federal government has done a poor job or a very poor job on those two issues.

When asked specifically what is to blame for the rising close of living, NL residents point to multiple factors, but far more believe companies charging more to make more profits deserves much of the blame. Decisions by the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau, global supply chain shortages, and the pandemic are also frequently cited as major factors. Only 1 in 5 NL residents think decisions made by the provincial government and Premier Andrew Furey are to blame a lot.

When asked which factor is most to blame, 36% blame companies charging more to make more profit, 31% blame decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau., 16% blame the COVID-19 pandemic while only 3% blame decisions by the provincial government.

Not surprisingly there is a strong correlation between voting intention and blame. Liberal and NDP voters are more likely to blame companies raising prices to make more profit and the pandemic or global supply chain shortages. Interestingly, only 18% of NDP supporters blame the federal government for the rising cost of living compared with 60% of Conservative supporters who feel the same way.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “The federal political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador mirrors the mood and opinions of Canadians across the country. Impressions of the federal government’s performance overall, its performance on key issues, and how people feel about the Prime Minister are overly negative. This, along with fairly positive impressions of Pierre Poilievre have created an environment where the Conservatives now lead the Liberals. The last time the Conservatives (or a conservative party) won the popular vote in Newfoundland and Labrador was in 1984 during the Mulroney landslide win.

It’s clear the cost of living is the focus for most voters in the province. Many blame the federal government the most for the rising cost of living and even those who don’t believe the federal government and Trudeau haven’t handled the issue well.

The weakness of the federal Liberals in what has been a consistently strong province for the party federally and the remaining province governed by Liberals provincially underscores just challenging the environment is for them today.”

Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador from September 19 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Provincial Politics

Opinions on Housing and Climate: Do Canadians Want a Climate-Centred Fix to Housing?

On behalf of the Task Force for Housing and Climate, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,959 Canadians (18+) from August 29 to September 4, 2023, to assess perceptions related to the housing crisis and climate change.

In recent months, Canadians across the country have felt the effects of climate related events (e.g., forest fires, floods, extreme heat, high winds) as well as ongoing challenges associated with housing affordability (e.g., rising costs, interest rates, availability, etc.). In this survey, we delved into the concerns regarding climate change and housing while also assessing the level of interest in implementing a climate-focused solution to housing problems.

The results of the latest research underscore the intricate and interlinked character of public concerns in Canada. There is a clear priority placed on resolving housing affordability issues without compromising our climate objectives. The data reinforces the pivotal roles of industry, government, builders, and developers in addressing these pressing challenges.

CONCERNS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE:

Results revealed that a significant majority of respondents, 76%, expressed concern about climate change, with only 8% reporting no concern at all. Moreover, in recent months, there has been a noticeable shift in Canadian attitudes towards climate change. Approximately 43% of Canadians have seen an uptick in their level of concern regarding its impacts. In contrast, nearly half of the population (48%) indicated that their level of concern has remained steady, with only a minority (8%) expressing a decrease in concern. These outcomes underscore the gravity of the climate change problem in the Canadian consciousness.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS:

Much like climate change, housing affordability is a significant worry for Canadians, with over 85% expressing concerns about it. In recent months, more than half of Canadians (53%) have seen an increase in their level of concern regarding housing affordability, with noteworthy spikes in concern observed in younger age groups, specifically those aged 18-29 (67%) and 30-44 (58%), were more likely to report heightened concern. Housing affordability has become a major concern for nearly 9 in 10 Canadians over the past year, driven by factors such as interest rates, availability, and affordability.

ADDRESSING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY WITHOUT COMPROMISING CLIMATE GOALS:

With increasing concerns relating to both climate change and housing, it is important to understand the dynamic between these two issues in the minds of Canadians. Results revealed that a significant portion of Canadians (62%) believe that it is important to address the housing affordability issue without compromising Canada’s climate goals.

When considering sustainable living, a large majority of respondents believe that we must find ways to address housing challenges in a way that doesn’t harm the environment. Specifically, results revealed that: 78% of respondents emphasize the importance of constructing housing in ways that minimize pollution contributing to climate change; and 4 in 5 Canadians (84%) believe it is crucial to develop new housing in a manner that is resilient to the impacts of climate change.

LEADERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACT:

When considering who should take leadership when addressing climate issues, the majority of respondents view industry (67%) and the federal government (65%) as the most important leaders in addressing climate change. Provincial (62%) and municipal governments (60%) are seen as being important, but to a slightly lesser degree than industry and the federal government.

Conversely, when addressing housing affordability, respondents view the provincial government (70%) and builders/developers (69%) as the primary leaders responsible. Additionally, 67% of respondents feel that the federal government should assume a leadership role in addressing housing affordability, with municipal governments at 69%. These findings indicate that Canadians believe that addressing housing affordability is a collective effort that involves all levels of government.

The Upshot

The current research underscores the intricate and interconnected landscape of public concerns in Canada. While it’s evident that Canadians express worries about both climate change and housing affordability, there’s a pronounced emphasis on the importance of tackling housing affordability without sacrificing our climate goals. This highlights their desire for a balanced approach that addresses affordability while simultaneously minimizing our environmental impact.

The data also emphasizes the crucial roles of industry, government, and builders/developers in addressing these issues. These results signify a notable shift in perspective regarding which level of government should take action to make a meaningful impact with Canadians increasingly looking to the federal government for climate change action and the provincial government for housing affordability solutions. It’s evident that Canadians perceive these issues as multifaceted and requiring action from all levels of government and industry.

Canadians are showing a rising level of worry regarding the affordability of housing and the issue of climate change. In this period when housing and climate concerns are at the forefront of Canadian consciousness, it is imperative for governments at all levels to pursue strategies that facilitate the creation of new, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly housing options. This will enable us to meet the increasing demand for housing without compromising our climate objectives.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,959 Canadian adults from August 29 to September 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.56%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsEnvironment & Climate ChangeHousingNews / MediaPolitics

Conservatives lead by 15 as federal government disapproval jumps 4 points

From September 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,125 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Nova Scotia to 500 respondents.

As the Liberal caucus meetings wrap up in London, Ontario, and after the Conservative Party convention in Quebec, a new poll finds the Conservatives continue to hold a large lead nationally.

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 36% in Quebec.

Since our previous survey last week, the Conservatives are up 1, the Liberals steady, and the NDP down 1. The BQ is up slightly in Quebec.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to hold a big lead in Western Canada, including BC. They lead by 6 in Ontario and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ has an 8-point lead over the Liberals.

The Conservatives continue to lead across all age groups and among men and women. Interestingly, while the Conservatives lead by wide margins among those with a high school or college education, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied with those with a university degree.

But the steady vote intention figures mask deteriorating underlying opinions.

For example, those dissapproving of the federal government’s performance is up 4 points (to 57%) since last week reaching the highest it’s been since 2015. Only 29% approve of the job performance of the Liberal government.

The Prime Minister’s personal image has also worsened. Today 56% have a negative impression of the Justin Trudeau compared wih 27% with a positive view for a net favourable score of -29.

Since the end of June, the Prime Minister’s personal numbers have trended down across all key demographic groups most notably among millennials (most of those aged 30 to 44).

In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers with positive and negative impressions, although there doesn’t appear to be either a bounce or drop in impressions of Poilievre coming out of the Conservative convention.

Perhaps most worrisome for the Liberals is what appears to be some deterioriation in the party’s accessible voter pool (those who say they are open to voting Liberal). It has reached the lowest point since 2015 at 42%, a drop of 2 points since August. In contrast, 50% of Canadian adults say they are open to voting Conservative – the largest gap in accessible voter pool advantage for the Conservatives 2015.

Finally, we continue to see affordability issues dominating the public agenda. In fact, those ranking housing affordability as a top issue is up 4 points since last week moving now solidly into second place between the cost of living more broadly.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “These numbers continue to show deterioriation in underlying opinions about the government and the Prime Minister that we first started seeing last summer but only recently seem to have impacted people’s intended voting behaviour.

The government needs to find a way to reset its agenda that allows people into evaluating the government differently, and offers a plan and vision that gives people hope that they have a handle on the key issues facing the country. In the absence of that, people’s deep anxiety about the state of the country and their personal lives will overshadow any incremental policies or actions it roles out.

For the Conservatives, these numbers reinforce the strong position the party is in at the moment. More people have a positive view of Pierre Poilievre than either of the two major leaders. They are seen as best able to handle most of the top issues people are focused on and if the desire for change persists and they are seen as capable and acceptable alternatives, they will easily ride the wave into office whenever the next election comes.

Yes, the election could be years away. But the trend is what matters and the Liberal situation is worsening at this point from week to week.”

Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,125 Canadian adults from September 9 to 13, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Spooked by polls, Liberal MPs hope Trudeau hears their concerns as caucus gathers – CBC

Some Liberal members of Parliament heading into a national caucus retreat this week say they’re facing blowback from voters at the doorsteps — and they hope the prime minister and his inner circle listen to their concerns before it’s too late.

The Liberals are holding three days of meetings starting Tuesday in London, Ont., a key battleground region of southwestern Ontario, as their party faces its worst polling numbers since forming government in 2015.

News / Media

Evaluating Canadian Interest: Energy-Efficient Homes in the Housing Landscape

From August 18 to 23, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,205 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of energy-efficient housing.

As we contemplate the foremost concerns occupying the thoughts of Canadians, it remains evident that housing and climate change consistently occupy prime positions. With mounting pressure to bolster housing construction nationwide, it becomes imperative to deliberate on how we can address housing challenges without compromising our environmental commitments.

In this survey, we investigated Canadian interest in energy-efficient homes, their motivations for considering (or not considering) such homes, and the specific technologies and products that pique their curiosity. The findings underscore Canadians’ appetite for energy efficiency in homes, although their primary motivation may not necessarily revolve around environmental concerns.

Decision to Purchase a New Home

Among Canadians, few intend to purchase a home within the next year (4%) with only 12% intending to purchase in the next 2-3 years. The decision to purchase a new home farther down the road is highest among young Canadians (38% intend to do so in the next 4 to 10 years), while 46% of older Canadians (60+) are in their forever homes. These relatively low intent purchase intent rates are likely due to the challenges many Canadians face with respect to housing affordability and availability.

Interest in Purchasing an Energy Efficient Home

Among individuals planning to buy a home in the coming years, 59% expressed the importance of having an energy-efficient home. In contrast, only 7% stated that energy efficiency was not a priority for their future home. Notably, Canadians aged 30-44 (61%), 45-59 (68%), and 60 and older (71%) were significantly more inclined to consider the importance of purchasing an energy-efficient home compared to those aged 18-29 (47%). Regionally, respondents from British Columbia (61%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (72%), Ontario (60%), and Atlantic Canada (77%) were more likely to emphasize the significance of acquiring an energy-efficient home, while those in Quebec (40%) placed relatively less importance on this aspect.

Reasons to (or not to) Purchase an Energy Efficient Home

Among those who are interested in an energy-efficient home, the primary driver in doing so is significant cost savings (65% included in top 3 reasons). Additionally, 41% of respondents express interest in energy-efficient homes to safeguard against rising energy expenses. Beyond financial considerations, 38% of respondents are drawn to energy-efficient homes as a means of promoting sustainable living, while an equal percentage aims to minimize their environmental footprint. These findings indicate that most prospective homebuyers are primarily motivated by the tangible financial benefits of energy-efficient homes, notably the potential for substantial savings.

Among those who emphasized that an energy-efficient home was not a priority, a substantial 55% prominently cited concerns about higher upfront costs as one of their top three reasons, while 43% pointed to the perception that energy-efficient homes demand more maintenance. In aggregate, 79% of respondents placed concerns about costs and maintenance at the forefront of their top three considerations. Although it is essential to approach these findings cautiously due to a relatively smaller sample size, it is important to highlight that the prevailing barriers linked to energy-efficient homes are unequivocally cost-related and maintenance-related.

Home Upgrades of Interest

When we look at the features that are of interest to potential home buyers, some clear preferences stand out.

First, 64% of those surveyed prefer homes with high levels of insulation. At the same time, 64% also like the idea of double-pane windows, which help moderate temperatures and save energy. In addition to this, 64% of respondents are interested in high-efficiency HVAC systems. This indicates that advanced heating and cooling solutions are a big deal for future homes.

Beyond these key considerations, the survey revealed that 63% of respondents prefer homes with energy-efficient LED lighting, with another 63% who are interested in Energy Star appliances. This shows a strong commitment to sustainability and using less energy in their homes.

Willingness to Pay for Energy-Efficient Upgrades

Moving from interest to actual investment, it is important to explore what homebuyers are truly open to purchasing. The front-runner in this regard is energy-efficient LED lighting. To be precise, among those who said they were interested in LED lighting, 80% would be willing to buy it. Right behind, 77% of those interested in smart thermostats are willing to make the purchase. These results may be due to the perception that LED lighting and smart thermostats are affordable and easy to find.

Moreover, 76% of prospective home buyers expressed their intention to invest in Energy Star Appliances. Energy Star appliances have been shown to bring monthly savings to homeowners due to their energy efficiency, which is a strong motivator for those seeking energy-efficient housing.

On the other hand, when it comes to bigger investments like geothermal heat pumps, solar panels, and heat recovery ventilation (HRV) systems, the willingness to purchase drops to 55% (among those interested in these products). These higher-cost items, while undoubtedly effective in enhancing energy efficiency, seem to prompt more careful consideration among prospective buyers. This reflects the delicate balance between cost, long-term benefits, and environmental consciousness.

The Upshot

In the housing realm, most Canadians are interested in owning an energy-efficient home. This interest is largely driven by the promise of real financial benefits like lower utility bills and protection from rising energy costs, followed by eco-conscious motivations. This presents a prime opportunity for organizations to emphasize these personal advantages alongside the environmental impact.

While most are enthusiastic about energy-efficient homes, there’s a small group that remains unconvinced. Their main concern? The perception of higher upfront costs. It’s important to bridge this gap by educating consumers about the long-term savings and benefits as it will provide them with actionable information to make informed decisions on.

Moving beyond interest in energy-efficient homes and technology, it’s crucial to grasp what prospective homebuyers are truly willing to invest in. Expressing interest doesn’t always translate into action, especially when considering higher-cost items. The findings indicate that while potential homebuyers express high interest in products like high-efficiency HVAC systems, high levels of insulation, or energy-efficient heat pumps, they lean more towards considering readily-available, lower-cost items like LED lighting and smart thermostats when it comes to making actual purchases.

Overall, educating buyers about the importance and benefits of energy-efficient homes is vital for builders, as it not only enhances marketability but also cultivates a deeper understanding of their lasting value. Builders wield substantial influence in shaping the housing landscape and consumer choices, making this education pivotal in fostering sustainable living.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,205 Canadian adults from August 18 to 23, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsHousingNews / MediaPolitics

Conservatives open up a 14-point lead over the Liberals as Poilievre’s personal rating turns positive

From August 29 to September 4, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,595 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Ontario to a total of 2,010, BC to 700, and Atlantic Canada to 521 (we will be oversampling Atlantic Canada regularly to make sure we get a more accurate read of that region).

As Conservative activists are set to meet today in Quebec at their national convention, our tracking finds the party has opened up its largest lead over the Liberals since the 2015 election.

If an election were held today, 40% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 30% in Quebec.

Since our last survey a two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up 2 while the Liberal and NDP vote share is unchanged.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in every region except for Quebec. They have big leads in Western Canada, a 7-point lead in Ontario, and a 10-point lead in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Liberals (28%) and BQ (30%) are statistically tied, but the Conservatives are not far behind at 25%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Toronto while the Conservatives lead in the GTHA, eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. Note, the sample size in northern Ontario is quite small so caution should be used when making any conclusions about ballot support in that region.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women. The Conservatives have an 11-point lead among those aged 18 to 29, a 17-point lead among those 30 to 44, and a 16-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. Among those 60+, they lead but by a smaller 9-point margin.

Among men, the Conservatives lead by 22-points and lead by 6 among women.

What is driving the Conservative lead?

As we have highlighted in the past, this sizeable national Conservative lead is being caused by two factors.

The primary driver, in our view, is the negative impression people have of the Liberal government and Prime Minister Trudeau.

The mood of the country remains decidedly negative. Only 1 in 4 feel the country is headed in the right direction.

The federal government’s approval rating remains at its weakest since 2015. 1 in 3 approve (31%) while half (53%) disapprove.

The Prime Minister’s net favourable rating is -24, unchanged from last wave and consistent with polling over the past four months. Note, at the end of the 2021 campaign, Justin Trudeau’s net favourable was -6.

Finally, 83% of Canadians want to see a change in government and only 17% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Those who say it’s time for a change and feel there is a good alternative to the Liberals is up 3 points since mid-August and is numerically the highest we’ve tracked since June at 51%. 1 in 3 continue to want change but aren’t completely comfortable with the alternatives.

But the growth in Conservative support is not just being driven by dissatisfaction with the Liberals. We also have seen a significant improvement in impressions of Pierre Poilievre over the past month. For the first time in our tracking, more people have a positive view of Poilievre than have a negative one. His net favourable is +2 with 36% having a positive view and 34% having a negative one. Since early August, Poilievre’s negatives are down 4 points while his positives are up 6.

When we look specifically at the demographic breakout, we find he has a net favourable rating among men (+10) and among younger Canadians while his image is negative among women (-8) and older Canadians 60+ (-10). We have seen an improvement in positive impressions for Poilievre across all these groups, with the biggest gains among men (+6) and those aged 18 to 44 (+7).

It’s also worth noting that the Conservatives have a larger accessible voter pool than the Liberals. Today 51% of Canadians say they are open to voting Conservative compared with 46% for the Liberals and 44% for the NDP. For comparison, the accessible voter pool for the Conservatives at the start of the year (January 2023) was 47%.

Deep dive: Does the Liberal government have a plan?

In this survey, we also added a new question asking people if they thought the Liberal government and Justin Trudeau has a good plan, a bad plan, or no plan when it comes to several salient policy areas. The results overall are instructive and suggest most Canadians feel the government has either a bad plan or no plan to deal with most of the top issues facing the country.

For example, on managing the cost of living – by far the top issue for Canadians – only 1 in 5 feel the Liberals have a good plan to deal with the issue. Another 33% say they have a bad plan while 35% think the government has no plan.

Views are the same when it comes to building more housing and making it more affordanle – only 1 in 5 think the government has a good plan. The rest think it has a bad plan (26%) or no plan (39%).

And what about the economy? 25% think it has a good plan, 25% think it has a bad plan while 31% think it has no plan.

The only two areas where there’s some sense the government has a good plan is when it comes to supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion (36% good plan, 26% bad plan, and 17% no plan) and climate change (29% good plan, 34% bad plan, 20% no plan).

But the results are even more concerning for the Liberals if you focus in on only those open to voting Liberal – the 46% of who say they would consider voting Liberal. Among this key audience for the Liberals, a sizeable proportion feel it has a bad or no plan when it comes to the cost of living (49%), housing (47%), or growing the economy (34%).

The implication of this is quite clear: the government hasn’t done enough or at the very least hasn’t communicated its plan or vision clearly and effectively enough. About half of those who are open to voting Liberal don’t think it has a good plan to deal with the issues they are worried most about. That’s sums up the problem facing the Liberals today.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Chair & CEO, David Coletto: “Our latest survey finds the Conservatives continuing to gain ground as the negative assessment of the Liberal government, the Prime Minister, and the state of the country holds. As Conservatives gather in Quebec today, momentum is clearly on their side.

Many Canadians are unhappy with the direction the country is taking and are skeptical of the Liberals’ ability to address key issues. Many don’t think the Liberals even have a plan to deal with the issues they care most about. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are benefiting not only from the Liberals’ decline but also from a rising positive perception of their leader, Pierre Poilievre. In the absence of a sustained counternarrative from his opponents, Poilievre’s introduction to many Canadians is bearing fruit and the Conservative leader finds himself in a stronger position than any of his predecessors at this point in their leadership mandates.

Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia in the coming weeks along with other data and insights on Canadian politics.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,595 Canadian adults from August 29 to September 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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