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NL Election 2015: Mount Pearl North – Liberal Randy Simms leads PC candidate and Deputy Premier Steve Kent by 17 points

November 19, 2015

By David Coletto

PdfExportVOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Mount Pearl North.

MPNThe Race in Mount Pearl North

Liberal candidate Randy Simms has a 17-point lead over PC candidate Steve Kent with 54% of decided voters in the district supporting Mr. Simms, followed by Mr. Kent at 37% and NDP candidate Cameron Mercer-Maillet in third at 9%. 22% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Note, at the time the survey was in the field, the NDP had not yet nominated a candidate and a name was not included in the interview.

Download the full results deck here: http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Mount-Pearl-North-Nov-2015.pdf

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We also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

>  79% think it is time for a change in government (on par with the provincial average).

>  The economy and jobs (35%), and health care (23%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings.

>  73% would consider voting Liberal (on par with the provincial average), 30% would consider voting NDP (7 points below provincial average) and 44% would consider voting PC (12 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball is the most popular party leader in the district (45% positive, 16% negative) although Mr. Davis’ personal numbers are not far behind (42% positive and 17% negative). Mr. Ball’s net impression score is lower than the provincial average (NL +40, Mount Pearl North +29) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are stronger (NL +7, Mount Pearl North +25). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are somewhat lower in Mount Pearl North than provincially (NL +4, Mount Pearl North -8).

> Like in the other districts we surveyed, a majority of eligible voters in Mount Pearl North believe the province is headed in the right direction (similar to the provincial average at 54%), yet the PC candidate Steve Kent trails by almost 20 points.

> 80% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election, 4 points higher than the province wide average. When it comes to who will win in Mount Pearl North, expectations are much closer with 44% thinking the Liberal candidate will win compared 32% think the PC candidate will win the district.

> 57% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 25% voted NDP and 5% voted Conservative. 69% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Mr. Simms and the Liberals provincially (28% are voting for Mr. Kent and the PCs) while only 25% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for the NDP candidate in the district (47% are voting PC and 28% are voting Liberal).

The Upshot

Eligible voters in Mount Pearl North, like most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, are looking for change. And this desire for a change in government is creating a significant challenge for high profile incumbent MHAs like Steve Kent in Mount Pearl North. Mr. Kent trails Liberal candidate Randy Simms by 17 points among committed voters despite the fact that most of the electorate thinks the province is headed in the right direction and PC Leader Paul Davis is well liked (he has a net impression rating of +25, very similar to Liberal Leader Dwight Ball). What appears to be contradictory opinions is really a strong desire for change overshadowing all other voter concerns. We think this explains how popular and well known PC incumbents like Mr. Kent are in tough for re-election.

Download the full results deck here: http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Mount-Pearl-North-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of Mount Pearl North. The survey was completed from November 12 to 16, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/


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