Wildrose leads in Calgary and outside the cities; PCs ahead in Edmonton

Ottawa – A new survey from Abacus Data conducted for the Sun News Network finds that heading into the final weekend of the campaign, Wildrose has a 10 percentage point lead over the incumbent PCs.  The Wildrose Party is  poised to win the 2012 Alberta general election unless something dramatic happens during the final weekend.

Province-wide, the Wildrose Party has the support of 41% of decided voters (down five), followed by the PCs at 31% (up two), the NDP at 13% (up one) and the Liberals at 12% (up two).  Ten percent of respondents said they were undecided even after being asked if they are leaning to one party.

This is the first week of tracking in which Wildrose is down from the previous week among decided voters.  Nonetheless, PCs have not taken full advantage of the Wildrose drop with all four other parties picking up some support from the previous week.

Regional Breakdown

The Wildrose Party’s commanding lead in Calgary last week has closed with Wildrose at 44% followed by the PCs at 29%, the Liberals at 13%, and the NDP at 12%.  In Edmonton, the PCs continue to lead with 36%, followed by Wildrose at 29%, the Liberals at 17%, and the NDP at 16%.

Outside of the two major cities, the Wildrose Party has a commanding 25-point lead over the PCs with the Wildrose at 52%, PCs at 28%, and the NDP at 11%.  The Liberals are in single digits at 6%.

Male Voters Are Wildrose Bedrock

As we have seen throughout the campaign, the Wildrose Party has a commanding lead among male voters.  Forty six percent of male voters (46%) say they plan to vote Wildrose compared with 26% for the PC Party.  Among women, the two main parties are statistically tied with Wildrose at 37% and the PCs at 35%.

Party Leadership

Respondents were also asked to rate their impression of each of the four main party leaders.

Wildrose leader Danielle Smith’s personal numbers have taken a hit in the last week.  The percentage of respondents viewing her favourably is down five percentage points to 36% while her unfavourable numbers are up seven points to 34%.  Her net favourable-unfavourable score is +2, the lowest it has been since we started tracking in early March.

Premier Alison Redford’s personal numbers are also trending negatively with 37% of respondents saying they view her negatively compared with 30% who view her favourably.  Her favourable-unfavourable score is -7, the lowest it has been throughout the campaign.

The only positive news from our leadership numbers comes for Brian Mason.  The percentage of respondents viewing him favourably increased by six points to 24% while the 25% who view him unfavourable is down three points from the previous week.  41% of respondents have a neutral impression of the NDP leader.

Net Favourability (favourable – unfavourable)

PC Leader Alison Redford           -7
WRA Leader Danielle Smith       +2
ALP Leader Raj Sherman            -11
NDP Leader Brian Mason            -1

What these numbers suggest is that the negativity of the campaign in the past few days has hurt not only Danielle Smith but Alison Redford as well.  Instead of trying to attract Liberal and NDP voters to their cause, the negative and personal tone of the PC attacks may have hurt the Wildrose Party but also made it difficult for Liberals and NDs to vote PC.

Direction of the PC Government

Overall, about six in ten Albertans surveyed (58%) believed that the PC Government in Alberta is headed on the wrong track (down 3 points since last week) while 30% believed the PC Government was headed in the right direction (up 3 points).

Management of the Oil Sands

The Wildrose Party continues to hold a slight advantage on who Albertans trust most to manage the oil sands.  One in three Albertans said they trust Wildrose the most (33%) followed by the PCs at 30%, and none of them at 13%.

The Bottom Line

Heading into the final three days of the campaign, the 2012 Alberta election is the Wildrose Party’s to lose.  Alberta is on the cusp of defeating the 41 year-old PC dynasty and replacing it with an up-start, new Wildrose Party.

Polling throughout the campaign has been relatively stable with Wildrose slowly gaining among decided voters until the last week of the campaign.  After the Leaders Debate and a number of gaffes by Wildrose candidates, the gap between Wildrose and the PCs has closed.

The bruising campaign has left few unscathed.  Both Danielle Smith and Alison Redford are viewed more unfavourably than when the campaign began.

The other story heading into voting day is the likelihood of a very regionalized legislature.  Edmonton looks poised to elect and re-elect a large number of PC MLAs while outside of Calgary and Edmonton, Wildrose is likely to do very well.  Calgary remains the wildcard in the election.  Although Wildrose, as of last night, holds a healthy 13-point lead in Alberta’s largest city, the party is trending down.  The question is whether the trend continues throughout the weekend or whether Wildrose can stop the bleeding.  If Wildrose can keep a margin of 10% in Calgary, they will be in a good position to win enough seats to form a majority government.

Methodology

From April 18 to 19, 2012, Abacus Data conducted a provincial survey of 1,076 Albertans aged 18 and over using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

The survey was commissioned by Sun News Network.

A dual landline/cell phone RDD samping frame was used in this study.

The margin of error for a sample size of 1,076 is + 3.0%, 19 times out of 20.  Note that the margin of error is higher for subgroups and caution should be used when making conclusions of data in subgroups with small sample sizes.

For more information about the survey findings, please contact Dr. David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data Inc. at (613) 884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

Pre-Election Poll

Since our first tracking poll in early March, a lot has changed.  Back then, the Progressive Conservatives held a small, but noticeable lead over the insurgent Wildrose Party.  The PCs lead by 5-points over the Wildrose 34% to 29%.  The Liberals were at 18%, and the NDP was at 14%.

The PCs had a big lead in Edmonton (18 points), among female voters (17 points) and among younger voters (19 points).  Although their wider lead captured by other pollsters earlier in the lead had closed, the Tories were still in a good position to win the 2012 election.  The fundamentals of the “Redford” coalition looked strong and there was plenty of soft Liberal and NDP voters to pry away if some of the conservative base continued to leak to the Wildrose Party.

The Campaign Begins

But those promising fundamentals did not last for long.  Soon after the election was called, we were back in the field with our first tracking poll of the election and the results were shocking.  Not only had the 5-point Tory lead vanished, but the Wildrose took a 13-point lead over the PCs.  Wildrose led among decided voters 41% to 28%.  Along with a surge of support for the Wildrose, the Tories were down six points, the Liberals down two, and the NDP down two.  For the two centre-left opposition parties the small decline in support was a harbinger for things to come.

What was probably most worrisome for the PCs in our numbers was that their lead among female voters completely disappeared and the Wildrose opened a significant advantage among male voters.  All of a sudden, Edmonton was competitive and Calgary and the outlying regions were trending heavily in favour of Wildrose.  After the first week of the campaign, it seemed the wheels were already coming off the PC’s campaign bus (no pun intended).

Week 2

Many believed the Wildrose surge in the polls wouldn’t last long.  As the campaign continued voters would become more aware of its platform and the inexperience of its team and return back to the PCs.  But our polling found the opposite.  Not only did voters not return to the PCs but the Wildrose cemented their lead among a number of core voting groups.

While the province-wide gap between the Wildrose and PCs was similar to the previous week (12-points), the Wildrose Party’s coalition continued to be built around strong support outside the two major urban centres and a healthy lead in Calgary.  They remained competitive in Edmonton (2-points behind the PCs) and had built up an impressive (14-point lead among male voters).  Most important to Wildrose success was their massive lead among middle-aged voters (30 to 44, 16-points; 45 to 64, 19-points).  With large leads among these voting groups, Wildrose victory looked assured.

Week 3

Our tracking poll in Week 3 found the Wildrose continue to move up in the polls expanding their lead over the PCs to 17 points.  More significant was the slow decline of the Alberta Liberals who bottomed out at 10% in the latest poll, moving behind the NDP in the province-wide ballot numbers.

In the three days leading up to the Leaders Debate, the Wildrose Party had expanded its lead in Calgary (55% to 25%) and in regions outside the major urban centres.  However, in Edmonton, the PCs had widened the gap to seven points pointing to a possible regionalized legislature after the April 23 election.

Wildrose now lead in all demographic groups: men, women, younger and older voters, and continued to do very well among middle aged voters.  The Wildrose Party seemed impenetrable.  Especially after a strong debate performance by Danielle Smith.

Week 4

But campaigns shift quickly and the weekend after the debate and the start of Week 4 was a difficult one for Wildrose.  The media piled on with stories about controversial things some Wildrose candidates had said.  The pitch for strategic voting intensified with a viral video asking traditionally non-PC voters to plug their nose and vote PC.  Some polls (here and here) out early in the week suggested that the gap between Wildrose and the Tories was starting to close with Wildrose still ahead but their lead in Calgary eroding and Edmonton shifting more and more to the Tories.

We are currently in the field completing our final survey of the campaign for Sun News.  The results will be released tomorrow morning around 9:00am MT on Sun News and I’ll be speaking with Dave Rutherford on his radio program around the same time.

What I’m Looking For

I’m looking for a few things in our final poll as a guide to how Election Day on Monday might turnout.

1. Does Liberal support continue to erode?  The PCs are continuing to press the strategic voting angle hard.  It has been effective to some extent.  In early March we had the Liberals at 18% and by the third week of the campaign, their support had dropped to 10%.  Can that continue?  Are Liberals who have disliked the PCs for so long willing to switch to PC to stop Wildrose?
2. Is Calgary changing its mind? Throughout the campaign, voters in Calgary we surveyed continually told us they planned on voting Wildrose.  Last week, the gap between the Wildrose and PCs was 30-points.  Those kinds of numbers mean a certain sweep of most, if not all, of the seats in the city.  But if the gap closes and the Tories can pull to within 5 or 6 points, all bets are off on how the seats might play out.
3. What do seniors do?  Our polling has shown that the one demographic, other than Edmonton voters, that caught the Wildrose crush has been seniors or voters aged 65 and older.  In our last survey, Wildrose lead these voters by only 6-points despite leading younger age groups by 22-points.  Will seniors be a decisive voting block on Monday?  Is the risk of Wildrose too great for those who have lived at a time when the PCs weren’t in power?  Or has the PC messaging “not your father’s PC Party” backfired with their most dependable voters?

This campaign has been nothing if not interesting.

As an adopted Albertan who lived in the province during the 2008 election, this is unlike anything the province has seen in 20 years.  Reports have suggested voter turnout will be higher (maybe reaching 60%).  I’m not certain we can project that but here’s to hoping that the first competitive election in a generation is sparking interest that ultimately leads to more people casting a ballot.

For those of you looking to catch up, here are the links to all our releases throughout the campaign:

Pre-Election Poll

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Looking forward to sharing our final results with you tomorrow.

David

That survey also asked respondents about their opinion on some of the campaign promises released by the various parties.  The party making the promise was not identified in the question.

In this post, I detail some of the findings of that series of questions.

Overall, the most popular promises we tested was put forward by the NDP.  Over seven in ten Albertans supported creating a $5,000 interest-free loan program for Albertans who make eco-friendly home renovations.  Only 12% of respondents were opposed to the idea.

A majority of Albertans also supporting the Wildrose pledge to introduce a $2,000 tax deduction for each child under the age 18 (66%), the PC promise to create an interest-free loan program for seniors (58%), and the Wildrose Energy Dividend pledge (57%).  Only the Liberal promise of reducing tuition fees by $250 immediately and eliminating tuition by 2025 was not supported by a majority of respondents.

Ranking the Promises

Respondents were also asked to rank the top three favourite promises.  Overall, 32% ranked the Alberta Energy Dividend as their favourite promise, followed by the child tax deduction (18%), the seniors’ loan program (14%), and the $5,000 eco-loan program put forward by the NDP (12%).

Interestingly, although more respondents supported the NDP promise, when compared with the others, it was ranked relatively lower.

In total, 55% of respondents ranked the Alberta Energy Dividend in their top 2 promises while 33% ranked the Tory seniors’ loan program in their top two.

The Wildrose Energy Dividend

Perhaps one of the most controversial promises of the campaign, the Wildrose Party’s Energy Dividend pledge had wide support across a number of demographic and political groups.

For example, 45% of PC supporters and 50% of Liberal supporters said they support the policy whereas 78% of Wildrose supporters liked the pledge.

Of note, the most opposed to the idea were high income Albertans with 40% opposing the idea.  In contrast, support was strong among lower income respondents with middle income respondents ($50k to $75K) being most supportive (66% support).

Redford Seen as Experienced; Wildrose is a “Breath of Fresh Air”

A new survey from Abacus Data conducted for the Sun News Network finds that although respondents were more likely to consider Alison Redford experienced to be premier, the PC Party brand faces significant challenges with voters that are likely contributing to the surge in support for the Wildrose Party.

Top of Mind Reaction to Political Parties

Top of mind, open-ended questions on the four main political parties reveal that many voters considered the PC Party to be old, arrogant, and out of touch.  While Alison Redford is strongly associated with the party brand, it is seen as an “old boys club”.  Interestingly Ed Stelmach rarely is mentioned by respondents when asked to think about the PC Party.

In contrast to the PCs, the Wildrose brand is viewed more positively with a significant number of respondents using words like new, fresh, good, and ideas to describe the parties.  Wildrose is seen as a new party with a fresh, young leader.  However, despite these positive mentions, many respondents did view the party negatively using words like extreme, scary or right-wing to describe the party.

The Liberal and NDP brands were less developed with many respondents simply writing “nothing” or “unsure” to describe the two parties.  For the NDP, many respondents mentioned words like taxes, socialist, social, union, and spend to describe the party.  More positively, the party is seen by some to care about people in the province.

The Liberal brand is strongly tied to its leader Raj Sherman and its focus on health care.  But it also suffers from a lack of definition and the general weakness of the Liberal brand in Alberta.

View the word clouds:

• Progressive Conservative
• Wildrose
• NDP
• Liberal

Party Brand Components

When asked whether certain statements applied to a particular party or not, the results present an interesting picture of the state of the party brands.

The PC brand is largely negative with large pluralities of respondents believing the party will do anything to win votes and is out of touch with ordinary people.  Few consider the PCs to be a “breath of fresh air” while only 10% believe it keeps its promises (no party did well on this statement).  More positively, the party is most likely to be seen as “ready to govern” and few consider it to be extreme or risky.  It also does well compared to the other parties on “understands the problems facing Alberta”.

Wildrose, on the other hand, is viewed as a “breath of fresh air” that “stands for clear principles” and “has sensible policies”.  But it also faces challenges about being “risky” and “extreme”.  Despite this, respondents were almost as likely to consider Wildrose “ready to govern” as the incumbent PCs indicating that despite some caution from many voters, the party isn’t considered to be unfit to govern by many respondents.

Parties and Policy

Respondents were also shown a series of policy outcomes and were asked which party they believed was best able to deal with the issue.

Overall, Wildrose had significant leads over the PCs on “keeping taxes low”, “increasing trust and accountability in government”, “and “reducing the cost of electricity”.

The PCs lead Wildrose on “managing Alberta’s oil and gas industry” and “dealing with the federal government.”

The parties were statistically tied when it came to “reducing the deficit”, managing the education system, and “dealing with municipalities”.

The NDP was considered the best party able to protect the environment.

The important issue of managing the health care system, no party had a significant advantage but Wildrose lead both the PCs and none of the above by 5-points with one in four respondents (25%) believing Wildrose was best able to manage the province’s health care system.

Party Leaders

The survey also found that Danielle Smith is personally the most popular leader in the province.  46% of respondents had a favourable impression of her compared with 29% who had an unfavourable impression.  In contrast, 43% of respondents viewed Alison Redford positively compared with 34% who viewed her unfavourably.

Of note, 51% of Albertans surveyed had a favourable impression of Stephen Harper while 32% viewed him unfavourably.  Newly elected federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair is viewed favourably by 15% of Albertans surveyed.

Respondents were also shown a set of descriptors that could be used to describe each of the party leaders.  They were asked whether the word or statement was a good or bad description of each leader.

Overall, Danielle Smith is seen as outgoing, friendly, attractive, and intelligent by a large majority of respondents.  A majority also would describe her as a “true Albertan”.  She was also the leader most likely to be described as “down to earth”.  More troubling for the Wildrose leader is the fact that only 18% of respondents would describe her as being “experienced to be premier” and 35% considered her to be “risky.”

Premier Alison Redford’s strengths lie in her perceived experience to be premier, her intelligence, and the fact that almost a majority of respondents consider her to be “a true Albertan”.  She is also tied with Danielle Smith on trustworthiness.  Her weaknesses are based on a perception by some that she is condescending and weak.

Bottom Line

The objective of this survey was to understand some of the underlying dynamics of public opinion in Alberta around political parties and their leaders.  The survey found that the PC Party brand has been significantly weakened with words like arrogant, old, long time, and corrupt being used to describe it.  Although Alison Redford has many personal strengths and is relatively well liked, it seems that the weakness of the PC brand has caught up to the relatively new leader and is hurting her re-election efforts.

For the up-start Wildrose Party, the branding exercise clearly shows that the party is considered new, fresh, and a change.  It has certainly filled the demand by many Albertans for change.  Danielle Smith is highly popular, seen as intelligent, attractive, and down to earth.  These characteristics make the Wildrose brand very difficult to counter because attacking it also means attacking the change it represents.

But Wildrose also faces vulnerability around its leader’s experience to be premier and whether the party is a risk.  Despite this however, 27% of Albertans would describe Wildrose as “ready to lead”, only 5-points lower than the PC Party. Wildrose is also considered the best party to keep taxes low, manage the health care system, and increase trust and accountability in government.

Despite attacks on the Wildrose Party over extremism, conscience rights, and abortion, the party is not widely seen as extreme.  The attacks have likely not stuck because Danielle Smith is not seen as extreme, is well liked, and seen as empathic.

Wildrose has successfully positioned itself as a fresh voice for an electorate that is seeking change.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 943 Albertans in English using an internet survey platform. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a larger internet representative panel of 150,000 Canadians.  The survey was completed from April 5 to 10, 2012.

Steps were taken to ensure that the survey respondents were representative of the population over 18 years of age.  The sample distribution was balanced to match the distribution of actual census data for age, gender, education, and region of the province.  Moreover, statistical weighting was applied to the data after the completion of the survey for age, gender, education, and region of the province.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The margin of error for a simple random survey of 943 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.2%, 19 times out of 20.