Abacus Poll: Two thirds of Canadians say balancing the federal budget is a high priority
Most Canadians support cutting jobs in the federal bureaucracy but worry about their impact on government services and the economy.

A new survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data that most Canadians (65%) believe balancing the budget and reducing the federal deficit should be a very high or high priority for the federal government.  And while there is less consensus on how the budget should be balanced (cuts versus tax increases) most Canadians prefer a method that leans more towards spending cuts as opposed to tax increases.

When told that the federal government is considering cutting thousands of jobs in the federal public service, six in ten respondents (61%) said they support the plan while 18% said they were opposed.  Another 21% neither supported nor opposed the cuts.  Support for cutting jobs in the public service was highest among Conservative Party supporters (73%_ and lowest among Liberal Party supporters (53%).

Despite majority support for job cuts in the federal bureaucracy, most Canadians said they would be concerned about the impact of those cuts on government services and the economy in general.  When asked what would most concern them about the cuts to the public service, 41% identified their impact on government services while 30% pointed to their potential impact on the economy.  Another 22% said they were not at all concerned about the impact of the cuts.

When presented with two arguments about public service cuts put forward by the unions representing federal public servants and the federal government, 47% sided with the federal government while 27% sided with the unions.  Twenty-seven percent said neither statement came closest to their view.

The rotated arguments presented to the respondents were:

1. The unions representing federal public servants have argued that job cuts in the public service will harm have major negative impacts on government services and will reduce household income and consumer spending hurting businesses and the economy.   

2. The federal government argues that the federal budget deficit must be reduced without raising taxes which would hurt the economy.  Cuts to the federal public service are necessary if the budget is going to be balanced.

The results above are not surprising when we consider how public servants are perceived by most Canadians.  When asked whether the compensation paid to those working in the federal public service is too high, about right, or too low when compared with private sector employees, 57% of respondents said their compensation was too high while 27% said it was about right.

Additionally, 58% of respondents considered federal public servants to be less productive than private sector employees while 32% said their productivity were about the same.  Nine percent of respondents believed that federal public servants were more productive than private sector employees.

The Bottom Line

A strong majority of Canadians want a balanced budget and support reductions in the size of the federal public service.  But concerns about the impact of job cuts to government services and the economy will need to be addressed by the government if they move ahead with an aggressive reduction in federal spending.

Download detailed tables.

Methodology
The survey was conducted online with 1,209 respondents in English and French using an internet survey platform. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a larger internet representative panel of 150,000 Canadians.  The survey was completed from January 31 to February 2, 2012.

Steps were taken to ensure that the survey respondents were representative of the population over 18 years of age.  The sample distribution was balanced to match the distribution of actual census data for age, gender, education, and province.  Moreover, statistical weighting was applied to the data after the completion of the survey for age, gender, education, region, and previous federal vote.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The margin of error for a survey of 1,209 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly omnibus survey.

For more information about the survey findings, please contact Dr. David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data Inc. at (613) 884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

The table below reports the unweighted and weighted distribution by region or province.

Respondents aged 30 to 60 are most opposed and only one in three trust Harper when he says current retirees and those close to retirement won’t be affected.

A new survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data finds that most Canadians surveyed are either very or somewhat concerned about having enough to pay for their retirement and a majority oppose reforms to OAS that would raise the retirement age to 67 from 65 by either 2017 or by 2025.

Concern about Retirement

When asked if they are concerned about having enough income when they retire, 47% of respondents said they were very concerned while another 33% said they were somewhat concerned.  Women were more concerned than men (women 50% very concerned, men 44% very concerned) while those aged 45 to 60 were the most concerned with almost six in ten (58%) saying they are very concerned.  Not surprisingly, Canadian Millennials or those aged 18 to 29 were the least concerned with 33% saying they are very concerned about having enough income when they retire.

Reforms to Old Age Security

After reading a short explanation on the Old Age Security Program and the demographic trends that will impact the program, respondents were asked their opinion about three possible policy options: (1) raising the retirement to 67 from 65 by 2017, (2) raising the retirement age to 67 from 65 by 2025, and (3) leaving OAS as is and paying for the increased cost from higher income taxes and other spending cuts.

Overall, a majority of Canadians surveyed opposed any increase in the retirement age.  The two time frames presented did little to change opinion.

Raise the Retirement Age to 67 by 2017

On the first policy proposal (raising the retirement age to 67 by 2017), 38% of respondents supported the option while 55% opposed it (34% strongly opposed).  Respondents aged 40 to 59 were the most likely to be opposed with 65% in opposition and only 29% in support of the idea.  Those aged 60 and over were most likely to support the proposal with 46% supporting it and 37% opposing.

Conservative Party supporters were split on the proposal with 51% supporting the proposal and 43% opposing it.  NDP and Liberal Party supporters were more likely to be opposed (NDP 62% opposed, Liberal 58% opposed).

Raise the Retirement Age to 67 by 2025

When asked whether they would support or oppose a plan to raise the retirement age to 67 by 2025 or 8 years later than the first proposal, support increased only marginally to 41%.  A majority of respondents still oppose the plan (51%).  However, there was a noticeable shift in support among those aged 44 to 59.

Opposition to Retirement Age under OAS
All Respondents by Age Group

Politically, the longer-term option is no less risky for the Conservative government. While a small majority of Tory supporters support the plan (51%), 42% are still opposed even with the longer time horizon.  NDP and Liberal supporters also remain largely opposed although 40% of Liberal Party supporters said they support the idea.

Leave OAS As Is But Pay for Cost Increase with Tax Increases and Other Spending Cuts  

A majority of respondents (57%) support the keeping the OAS program as is even if it means tax increases and other spending cuts while 32% said they were opposed.  Those aged 44 to 59 were most likely to support this option (66% support) while a majority of supporters of all three parties could get behind this idea with 52% of Tory supporters, 61% of NDP supporters, and 63% of Liberal supporters saying they support leaving OAS as is but paying for the cost increase with tax increases and other spending cuts.

Is the Federal Government Genuinely Trying to Approve Old Age Security?

When asked which of two statements, if either, came closest to their view on retirement policy, four in ten Canadians (43%) believed that the federal government could not be trusted to reform Old Age Security because they only look out for the interests of wealthy Canadians and big businesses.  Twenty-nine percent (29%) believed that the federal government genuinely wants to improve the Old Age Security system so it is affordable and sustainable for future generations of Canadians.  The remaining 28% of respondents said they either agreed with neither statement or were unsure.

Prime Minister Harper’s Pledge Not to Hurt Retirees or Those Close to Retirement: Do you believe him?

When asked whether they believe the Prime Minister when he promised not to make changes to OAS that would affect current retirees or those close to retirement, 37% said they did believe him while 63% said they did not.

Not surprisingly, answers were strongly correlated with party support:  68% of Conservative supporters said they believed the Prime Minister while 32% said they did not.  In contrast, 19% of NDP supporters and 26% of Liberal supporters said they believed the Prime Minister.

Perhaps most worrying for the government is the fact that only 34% of those aged 40 to 59 said they believed the Prime Minister would keep his promise.

The Big Picture

The results of this survey demonstrate that the debate over retirement policy reform is highly divisive.  It pits middle-aged Canadians against those already or nearing retirement and younger Canadians.

In most research on policy issues, Canadians usually divide fairly clearly across partisan lines.  However, on the issue of OAS, the partisan lines are blurred with a significant percentage of Tory supporters saying they would oppose the federal government raising the retirement age to 67 by either 2017 or 2025.

At the early stages of this debate, the public’s reaction to proposals with set transition periods suggests there is significant risk for the government as it decides how to approach this issue in its 2012 budget.  While a slight majority of Conservative Party supports support both proposals to raise the retirement age to 67 by 2017 or 2025, a large percentage of the party’s supporters are opposed and most of those are aged 40 to 59 and those who are more likely to vote than those in younger age groups.

Expanding the transition period to 2025 does move attitudes slightly among those aged 44 to 59 but not enough to make it a majority opinion among that important voting group.

As retirement income remains a very serious concern for almost a majority of Canadians, if the government plans to reform OAS it has much work to do in convincing its own supporters as well as Canadians in general that it is the right thing to do.

Download detailed tables here.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 1,209 respondents in English and French using an internet survey platform. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a larger internet representative panel of 150,000 Canadians.  The survey was completed from January 31 to February 2, 2012.

Steps were taken to ensure that the survey respondents were representative of the population over 18 years of age.  The sample distribution was balanced to match the distribution of actual census data for age, gender, education, and province.  Moreover, statistical weighting was applied to the data after the completion of the survey for age, gender, education, region, and previous federal vote.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The margin of error for a survey of 1,209 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly omnibus survey.

A small majority of Canadians would rather attend a Winnipeg Jets game than visit the museum.

Ottawa – A new poll from Ottawa-based Abacus Data conducted for QMI Agency finds that while a majority of Canadians support the building of the Canadian Museum for Human Rights, only 15% said they would be very or somewhat likely to make a special trip to Winnipeg, the home of the new museum, to visit the museum.

56% of Respondents Strongly or Somewhat Support Building the Museum

After being shown a short description about the Canadian Museum for Human Rights, respondents were asked whether they supported or opposed building the museum.  In all, 56% either strongly or somewhat supported the idea of the museum while only 11% opposed it.  Three in ten respondents (31%) neither supported nor opposed it.

Would you go to Winnipeg to Visit the Museum?

Those respondents living outside of Winnipeg were asked how likely they would be to make a trip to Winnipeg to visit the museum.  Few respondents said they would be likely to make a special trip (15%) with a majority (55%) saying they would be somewhat or very unlikely to make a trip to Winnipeg to visit the new museum when it opens. About one in four respondents (23%) said they were not at all interested in visiting the museum.

If in Winnipeg anyway, would you visit the museum?

A majority of respondents said they would be very or somewhat likely to visit the museum if they were already in Winnipeg for some other reason.  Twenty-seven percent said they would be unlikely to visit while 15% said they were not at all interested in visiting the museum.

Winnipeg Jets Game vs. Canadian Museum for Human Rights

Finally, respondents were asked if they could choose between attending a Winnipeg Jets game or visiting the Canadian Museum for Human Rights, which would they prefer.  A slight majority of respondents nationally (54%) said they would rather attend the Winnipeg Jets game while 46% would visit the museum.

Not surprisingly, men were more likely to prefer going to the Jets game (64% Jets, 36% museum) while women were more likely to prefer the museum (55% museum, 45% Jets).

The Big Picture

The results of this survey suggest that most Canadians support the idea of the Canadian Museum for Human Rights but few are likely to visit Winnipeg to specifically visit the museum.

Will the new museum be a boom to tourism in Winnipeg? Probably not.  But there is board support among the public for the idea of a museum devoted to human rights.

The other thing to keep in mind when considering the broad public support for the museum is the fact that no details about the cost and maintenance of the museum were mentioned in the survey.  It is likely that support for the museum would go down if respondents were told how much the museum cost to build and how much it will cost taxpayers to maintain and keep open.

Methodology

From January 16 to 19, 2012, Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,000 randomly selected Canadian adults from an online panel of over 150,000 Canadians.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.  The margin of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, language, and immigration status using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Canada results from the 2011 General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly omnibus survey.

Download the detailed tables.

A new national survey has found few Canadians can name more than one competitor in the NDP leadership race. David Coletto and Kristy Krikup.

Watch the Video Here

More bad news for the NDP: 40 per cent of Canadians haven’t heard of any of the eight candidates in the leadership race, according to a new online poll.

Even worse, 35 per cent of New Democrats could not recognize the candidates running to replace the late Jack Layton. The campaign to decide Canada’s next official opposition leader – basically the prime minister-in-waiting – is to be decided in less than two months, on March 24 in Toronto.

The new Abacus Data poll, released Friday afternoon, follows several national opinion polls this week that showed the NDP slumping. Although they remains in second place, the Liberals have momentum coming out of their policy convention two weeks ago.

There is some positive news in this online survey for several of the candidates, however.

Thomas Mulcair, the fiery Quebec MP and one of the front-runners, is the best known of the candidates both nationally and in the all-important province of Quebec, where he is known by 67 per cent of the respondents. Nationally, he is known by 36 per cent of Canadians.

His recognition in Quebec is important as the province was the key to the party’s success in the May campaign. More than half of the NDP caucus is from Quebec, which propelled the NDP into official opposition status.

“Biggest surprise is the strength of Thomas Mulcair in Quebec and the lack of awareness of the candidates among Canadians, especially among NDP supporters,” says pollster David Coletto. “The results also confirm Mr. Mulcair’s primary argument that he is best positioned to maintain the NDP gains in Quebec.”

Following Mr. Mulcair in Quebec are Brian Topp, a backroom strategist who grew up in Montreal. His name is recognized by 31 per cent of Quebec respondents; he has the same name recognition nationally.

Continue reading…

With about two months left in the federal NDP’s leadership race, a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data finds that few Canadians could name more than one of the candidates running for the NDP leadership and 40% were unaware of any of the names presented to them.  Among NDP supporters, 35% said they were unaware of any of the candidates and 54% said they were aware of less than two candidates.

Percentage Aware of the Candidates

Nationally, Thomas Mulcair and Brian Topp were the most likely to be known by respondents.  Thirty-six percent of respondents were aware of Thomas Mulcair while 31% were aware of Brian Topp.  Paul Dewar (27% aware) and Peggy Nash (23%) rounded out the top four.

Among NDP supporters (those who said they would vote NDP if an election were held the time of the poll), the order was the same with Mr. Mulcair (38%), Mr. Topp (32%), Mr. Dewar (27%), and Ms. Nash (21%) in the top four.  Over three in ten NDP supporters had not heard of any of the candidates prior to our poll.

Regionally, Mr. Mulcair’s name recognition in Quebec exceeded all other competitors in all other regions of the country and his national lead in name recognition was almost entirely due to Quebecers’ awareness of him.  Sixty-four percent of Quebec respondents were aware of Thomas Mulcair.  Outside of Quebec, Mr. Mulcair’s name recognition never exceeded 25%.

Brian Topp was most known in Western Canada (35%) while Paul Dewar and Peggy Nash had higher name recognition in Ontario, at 36% and 33% respectively.

Candidate Most Likely to Make You Vote NDP

When respondents who were aware of at least two candidates were asked which candidate would make them most likely to vote NDP, Thomas Mulcair topped the list with Canadians overall and among NDP supporters (21% overall, 36% with NDP supporters).  Brian Topp, Paul Dewar and Peggy Nash rounded out the top four all close together among Canadians overall and among NDP supporters.

Caution should obviously be used when interpreting these numbers.  Even the results among NDP supporters mean little in terms of who may actual win the leadership since the results are not representative of actual NDP members.  We must keep in mind that much of the federal NDP’s support in our poll comes from Quebec, and Thomas Mulcair is well known in the province and therefore most likely to be considered the best choice.

The results demonstrate Mr. Mulcair’s challenge in this race.  He is well known in Quebec and there is a certain level of goodwill among those who know him.  But when the NDP leadership race started, there were very few NDP members in Quebec relative to other provinces.  These numbers confirm his strategy: (1) sign up new members in Quebec and (2) convince members outside Quebec that he is best able to keep NDP gains in the province.

Qualities in an NDP Leader

Respondents were also shown a list of attributes that could be used to describe a party leader.  They were asked to rank the top five attributes they believe are important in the next leader of the NDP.  No single attribute was the clear preference for all respondents but 10% of respondents ranked “stands for clear social democratic principles”, “is tough and can stand up to Stephen Harper”, “able to fluently speak both official languages”, “is down to earth” and “has experience in business”.

For NDP supporters, “stands for clear social democratic principles”, “is tough and can stand up to Stephen Harper”, “able to fluently speak both official languages” and “can beat Stephen Harper” were the top four ranked attributes.  Interestingly, “can appeal to voters in Quebec” was ranked 1^st by only 4% of NDP supporters, and was ranked in the top 5 by only 31%.

Download the full results here.

Methodology

From January 16 to 19, 2012, Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,000 randomly selected Canadian adults from an online panel of over 150,000 Canadians.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.  The margin of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, language, and immigration status using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Canada results from the 2011 General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly omnibus survey.

For more information about the survey findings, please contact Dr. David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data Inc. at (613) 884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 37% of decided voters (down three since December), followed by the NDP at 28% (down three), and the Liberal Party at 21% (up three).  The Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party are well back at six percent and seven percent respectively.

The Liberal Party is trending up in our latest national poll due largely to a significant increase in support in Ontario.  In fact, at 21%, the Liberal Party is at its highest level of support in our tracking since mid-way through the 2011 Federal election and five points higher than their low point in our tracking at 16% at the end of May.

Our latest numbers for the NDP continue to trend down.  After peaking at 33% in our survey at the end of May, the NDP is down to 28% nationally, the lowest point for the NDP in Abacus tracking since the May election.

For the incumbent Conservative Party, the national numbers are down since December but we will have to wait another month to see whether this dip is a longer term trend.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to do well in the Prairies (52%), Alberta (72%), and BC (47%) while the NDP continues to maintain a healthy lead over the three other main parties in Quebec (37%).   The Liberal Party is strongest in Ontario at 30% support.

Along with vote intention, Abacus Data also tracks opinion about the general direction of the country, approval of the federal government, and the favourability of federal party leaders.

• 44% of Canadians surveyed believed that things in Canada are heading in the right direction while 39% believed things are headed in the wrong track.  This is largely unchanged from December.
  • Quebecers continued to be the most likely to believe the country is headed in the wrong direction (55%).
• The federal government’s approval rating did not move at all with 40% of Canadians surveyed either strongly or somewhat approving of the federal government’s job approval while 43% disapproved.
  • The government’s approval rating is highest in Alberta (62% approve) and lowest in Quebec (20% approve).
• The percentage of Canadian disapproving of the federal govenrment’s management of the Canadian economy is down 10 percentage points from December.  Thirty-eight percent (38%) either strongly or somewhat approved while 23% either strongly or somewhat disapproved.  The remaining 39% neither approved nor disapproved.
• The personal impression of the main party leaders remained virtually unchanged since December with the exception of Bob Rae whose favourable numbers continued their trend upwards.
  • Harper – Favourable 38% / Neutral 18% / Unfavourable 42%
  • Turmel – Favourable 14% / Neutral 37% / Unfavourable 26%
  • Rae – Favourable 28% / Neutral 33% / Unfavourable 30%
  • May – Favourable 23% / Neutral 39% / Unfavourable 27%

The upward trend we have seen in the Liberal Party numbers in other polling is confirmed in our own polling.  Although the increases have not been as substantial, the Liberal Party certainly has some positive momentum coming out of their national convention.

With a lack of a permanent leader, the appearance of a reenergized Liberal Party, and what appears to be a dull leadership race, the NDP support’s historic level of support is starting to leak to other opposition parties.  Although this may be resolved once the leadership race is over at the end of March, the NDP’s leadership vacuum and the resulting inability to stake out clear positions on key debates such as the Northern Gateway pipeline means that it will continue to be overshadowed by Bob Rae and talk of Liberal Party renewal.

Download the full report.

Methodology

From January 16 to 19, 2012, Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,000 randomly selected Canadian adults from an online panel of over 150,000 Canadians.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.  The margin of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, language, and immigration status using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Canada results from the 2011 General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly omnibus survey.

For more information about the survey findings, please contact Dr. David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data Inc. at (613) 884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

BY DANIEL PROUSSALIDIS ,PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU

OTTAWA  - Despite years of anti-oilsands campaigns, a new poll has found Canadians are more likely to support than oppose Enbridge’s Northern Gateway pipeline proposal.

An Abacus Data poll exclusively for QMI Agency has found 38% of those asked supported the pipeline that would link Alberta’s oilsands and a tanker terminal in northern B.C., while 29% opposed the project.

David Coletto, president of Abacus Data, says environmental issues are top of mind for most people asked about the project, but another issue is increasingly catching on.

“People recognize the economic benefits that the (oilsands) bring,” he said, crediting the federal government’s aggressive messaging of the last few months. “Having the stability that the oilsands brings, in terms of revenue and jobs and value to the country, for a lot of Canadians is important.”

Support for Northern Gateway was strongest in Alberta and weakest in Quebec.

B.C. was the most polarized province with the clearest division between pro- and anti-Northern Gateway feelings, and the least undecided people.

But as hearings on Northern Gateway heat up, people appear to be paying attention.

“Just awareness of the issue, being aware of this pipeline, has gone from 31% in October 2011 to 65% now,” said Coletto.

Still, fully a third of those asked remain in the mushy middle on the project.

“There’s still opportunity for both sides here to convince a large chunk of Canadians one way or the other – and a lot of those Canadians are in Quebec and Eastern Canada where the issue is not front and centre,” said Coletto.

Politics played a big role in where people stood too.

Conservative fans tended to favour Northern Gateway, NDP devotees were usually in the “anti” camp, and Liberal supporters were split evenly between pro, anti and undecided.

Fully 40% of Green Party backers were undecided.

Coletto says that’s because other polling has shown a big chunk of Green Party support is a protest vote. “It seems that not all Green Party voters are environmentalists.”

The poll also found the Keystone XL pipeline to connect the oilsands to Texas refineries received 35% support among Canadians with 28% opposed.

The online survey was conducted online with a representative sample 1,000 respondents from a large panel of Canadians. The margin of error for a random survey of its size would be +3.1%, 19 times our 20.

According to a new national survey from Ottawa-based Abacus Data, almost four in ten Canadians surveyed support the Northern Gateway pipeline, a pipeline project proposed to run from northern Alberta to the coastal community of Kitimat, B.C.

Northern Gateway Pipeline

Nationally, while awareness of the project was relatively high at 65%, a plurality of Canadians surveyed (38%) said they either strongly (15%) or somewhat (23%) supported building the pipeline.  In contrast,  29% either strongly (13%) or somewhat (16%) opposed the project.  The remaining 33% of survey respondents said they neither supported nor opposed the project.

Regionally, the pipeline was most likely to be supported in Alberta where 70% of respondents indicated they either strongly or somewhat supported the project.  While in Quebec, respondents there were the least supportive with less than one in four saying they supported the new pipeline that would transport bitumen from the oil sands in northern Alberta to tankers at the deep water port in northern British Columbia.

In British Columbia, where hearings by the National Energy Board began last week, support was more polarized with 44% of B.C. respondents supporting the pipeline and 36% saying they opposed it.

Outside of Alberta and B.C., the high number of Canadians who said they neither supported nor opposed the pipeline indicates that a lot of Canadians have not yet made up their mind about the project or many are simply indifferent.  In fact, when we take a close look at the numbers, opposition to the pipeline does not rise above the 36% opposition registered in B.C..  This indicates an opportunity exists outside of BC and Alberta to convince Canadians of the merit to the proposal and the potential impacts, both positive and negative, that it could have on the economy and the environment.

Politically, the pipeline is far more polarizing.  Supporters of the federal Conservative Party are the most supportive (62% support/14% oppose) while opposition is highest among NDP supporters (21% support/41% oppose).  Liberal Party supporters are more divided with 36% supporting the pipeline and 35% opposing it.

The survey also asked respondents to rank five factors that the federal government should consider when deciding to proceed with the project from most important to least important.  Overall, respondents were more likely to rank environmental considerations as important ahead of the economic benefits derived from the project.

Interestingly, Conservative Party supporters were more likely to rank national economic benefits as the most important while NDP and Liberal Party supporters ranked environmental impacts as their most important consideration.  As this issue continues to be debated, public opinion data suggests that the pipeline has the potential to polarize the country, like other issues pursued by the Federal Government, with Conservative Party supporters on one side and opposition party supporters on the other.

The survey data also indicated that impressions of the Alberta oil sands overall was a key predictor of the pipeline.  It is clear, and not surprising, that the debate over the future of the oil sands cannot is not independent from the debate over the pipeline.

Keystone XL Pipeline

In light of the Obama Administration’s rejection of application to build the Keystone XL pipeline, the survey found that opinion about the Keystone XL pipeline divide in similar ways to the Northern Gateway pipeline.  Over three in ten Canadians surveyed (35%) said they supported the Keystone XL pipeline while 28% said they opposed it.  A larger group of respondents (36%) neither supported nor opposed it.

Again, support for the Keystone XL pipeline was highest in Alberta (68% support/24% oppose) and lowest in Quebec (18% support/26% oppose) and opinion was correlated to federal party support (CPC voters 57% support/13% oppose, NDP voters 19% support/40% oppose, Liberal voters 35% support/33% oppose).

These numbers suggest that on both the Northern Gateway and Keystone XL pipelines, the Liberal Party faces the more difficult task in finding a nuanced position on the projects that satisfy a rather polarized base of support.

Download the details tabs here

Methodology

From January 16 to 29, 2012, Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,000 randomly selected Canadian adults from an online panel of over 150,000 Canadians.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.  The margin of error for a survey of 1,000 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, language, and immigration status using census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Canada results from the 2011 General Election. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly omnibus survey.

For more information about the survey findings, please contact Dr. David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data Inc. at (613) 884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

In Canada, political words are inflected into the brands and names of our largest political parties.  Ever wonder why we rarely hear Conservatives in Canada positioning themselves as the defenders of capitalism?  Or why New Democrats prefer to discuss social democracy as opposed to socialism?

The results of a little test we conducted in our last national survey offer some answers to these questions.

In our latest national survey we asked Canadians whether a set of words elicited positive or negative reactions when they read or see them.  The respondents were show a word, in a random order, and asked to select either “positive” or “negative” as how they would describe them.

What we we found is quite interesting and is an interesting exercise in political communication and imagery.

The info graphics below report the results for each of the five words we tested.

Overall, there was more consensus around the word “progressive” with almost nine in ten respondents saying they have a positive reaction when they see the word.  ”Social Democracy” also performed well.

There was less consensus on the remaining three words.  Not surprisingly, the words “conservative” and “socialism” divided the country with older Canadians, those living in Western Canada, and men being more likely to respond positively to “conservative” and younger Canadians and women being more likely to respond to the word “socialism”.

The only word we tested where a majority of respondents reacted negatively to it was “capitalism” with only 42% saying they had a positive reaction to the word.  Women, Quebec respondents, and younger generations reacted less positively to “capitalism”.

So what’s the point?  The point is that the words we use matter.

Progressive is a universal word not necessarily associated with one political position or ideology.  Almost all Canadians considered it to be a positive word.  Moreover, despite its connection with left-wing politics, the phrase “social democracy” also is positively received, especially among younger generations.

Socialism turns off about half of the country while conservative turns off about the other half.  Capitalism appeals to men far more than women and is rejected by over six in ten Canadian Millennials.