Federal Liberals ahead by 25 in Newfoundland and Labrador; NDP vote up 12 since March
July 2, 2015
According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 722 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from June 17 to 21, 2015, the federal Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau continues to hold a big lead in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The Liberals have the support of 53% of committed voters (down 5 since March) compared with 28% for the NDP (up 12 since March) and 15% for the Conservative Party (down 8 since March).
Among all eligible voters, 14% are undecided, down 2 since March.
Regionally, the Liberals lead by a wide margin in all parts of the province except for around St. John’s and the Avalon Peninsula where the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied (LPC 42% vs. NDP 37%).
In 2011, the total vote split in the three ridings in St. John’s/Avalon Peninsula was: NDP 46%, CPC 28%, LPC 25%. Based on the margin of error, the vote range for each party in the region is:
Liberal: Low 37%, Mid 42%, High 49%
NDP: Low 30%, Mid 37%, High 43%
CPC: Low 12%, Mid 17%, High 22%
There’s also an 80% chance that the Liberals are leading the NDP in the Avalon/St. John’s region.
This analysis indicates that the Liberal vote is likely up significantly since 2011 in the region, the Tory and NDP vote is likely down.
Leadership Impressions
Despite trailing the Liberals by 25-points province wide, NDP Tom Mulcair has the most positive impression among eligible voters.
Overall, 43% have a positive impression of Mr. Mulcair (up 15 points since March) compared with 14% who have a negative impression of him (+29 score). Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers have held fairly steady since March with 43% viewing him favourably and 21% have an unfavourably impression of the Liberal leader (+22 net score).
Most eligible voters in NL continue to have a negative impression of Prime Minister Harper (69%) and only 14% view him positively (-55 net score).
Who will win the next election?
When asked who will win the next federal election, 46% of eligible voters picked the Liberal Party while 21% picked the Conservative Party. Nearly tied with the Conservative Party, 18% selected the NDP to win, while 15% were unsure.
In March, only 2% of eligible voters believed the NDP would win the next federal election. Today, 18% believe the NDP is likely to win. Expectations of a Liberal win are down 5 points while expectations of a Conservative win are down 9 points.
Methodology
The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 722 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from June 17 to 21, 2015. The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.
Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.
For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.
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