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January 24, 2012 by David
When politicians, pundits, and the media talk politics, they use a lot of words, often as a signal or code to something more complex. In the United States, the word “liberal”, largely tarnished during the Reagan years, has been replaced by progressive to describe policies, partisans, and politicians on the left side of the political spectrum.
In Canada, political words are inflected into the brands and names of our largest political parties. Ever wonder why we rarely hear Conservatives in Canada positioning themselves as the defenders of capitalism? Or why New Democrats prefer to discuss social democracy as opposed to socialism?
The results of a little test we conducted in our last national survey offer some answers to these questions.
In our latest national survey we asked Canadians whether a set of words elicited positive or negative reactions when they read or see them. The respondents were show a word, in a random order, and asked to select either “positive” or “negative” as how they would describe them.
What we we found is quite interesting and is an interesting exercise in political communication and imagery.
The info graphics below report the results for each of the five words we tested.
Overall, there was more consensus around the word “progressive” with almost nine in ten respondents saying they have a positive reaction when they see the word. ”Social Democracy” also performed well.
There was less consensus on the remaining three words. Not surprisingly, the words “conservative” and “socialism” divided the country with older Canadians, those living in Western Canada, and men being more likely to respond positively to “conservative” and younger Canadians and women being more likely to respond to the word “socialism”.
The only word we tested where a majority of respondents reacted negatively to it was “capitalism” with only 42% saying they had a positive reaction to the word. Women, Quebec respondents, and younger generations reacted less positively to “capitalism”.
So what’s the point? The point is that the words we use matter.
Progressive is a universal word not necessarily associated with one political position or ideology. Almost all Canadians considered it to be a positive word. Moreover, despite its connection with left-wing politics, the phrase “social democracy” also is positively received, especially among younger generations.
Socialism turns off about half of the country while conservative turns off about the other half. Capitalism appeals to men far more than women and is rejected by over six in ten Canadian Millennials.
December 19, 2011 by David
On a few days ago, everyone was talking about how Newt Gingrich (me included) was the front runner for the Republican nomination for President. All the polls (state and national) were showing a surge in support for the former House Speaker.
But just like every other candidate to surge into the lead over the past six months, Newt is in free fall.
- Yesterday, Gallup’[s 5-day national tracking has Newt with a small lead over Romney nationally (26% to 24%) - Newt is down 11 points in 10 days.
- Yesterday, Public Policy Polling showed that Gingrich is now in third (yes third) in Iowa behind Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
- Today, Nate Silver at the New York Times forecasted that Gingrich has only a 15% chance of winning the Iowa Caucus.
- Gingrich's stock has literally crashed at the inTrade markets (down almost 20 points in a week, see graphic below)
And if these indicators were not enough bad news stories for Gingrich's campaign, word came out today that Gingrich's campaign is only planning to spend $21,000 on TV advertising in Iowa over the next week. That compares with the $1 million spent by Romney's PAC and the $450K spent by Perry's PAC.
With no more debates and no money to spend on ads, Gingrich doesn't have the means to revive the campaign. Worse, he didn't even spend the weekend in Iowa campaigning and just opened his campaign office a week ago.
Polls can tell us a lot about where voters are headed or the potential for change. But what has happened in the Republican nomination demonstrates that they are just snapshots in time and things can change and they can change quickly.
There's only two weeks left until the Iowa Caucuses. If Gingrich doesn't win or come a strong second, he's likely finished.
Newt's rise and fall on the market at inTrade
November 22, 2011 by David
A new report from the Centre for American Progress, a progressive organization in the United States, outlines the demographic and opinion-related evidence that suggests the path to winning the White House has shifted somewhat since 2008.
The report concludes that the demographic shifts in key states favours Obama: mainly the growth of non-white, college educated, and Millennial voters. However, economic perceptions and realities are hurting Obama and helping whoever gets nominated as the Republican candidate. So the election will ultimately be about balancing these two realities. If the key voter segments that would support Obama stay home like they did in the 2010 mid-term elections because of economic frustration , the Republicans win.
An interesting read for the data nerds out there like me.
November 15, 2011 by Abacus
Republished from Educated Solutions: The Affordability Issue (Issue 8, November 2011)
By David Coletto, Ph.D CEO, Abacus Data Inc.
For the complete results of OUSA’s recent public opinion polling with Abacus Data, click here.
The recent provincial election campaign in Ontario was dominated by debates over taxes, the economy, and who was best to lead Ontario through what appears to be some uncertain economic times. We heard little about some of the other priorities Ontarians care about: health care and education.
In early September, OUSA and the College Student Alliance commissioned Abacus Data to conduct a public opinion survey of Ontarians over the age of 18 to gauge the public’s attitudes towards post-secondary education. An election is a great time to survey the public because it is the one time when it is most engaged and most likely to be thinking about policy issues. With an election underway and school back in session, it was an excellent time to find out where the public is when it comes to post-secondary education.
Here are some of the key findings from the survey.
Most Ontarians believed that post-secondary education was very important to the province’s quality of life and economic prosperity over the next 20 years.
There was little disagreement among the public when it came to higher education’s role in building a better province in the future. Over six in ten respondents (65%) said that post-secondary was very important to the quality of life and economic prosperity of Ontario over the next 20 years while another 26% believed post-secondary was somewhat important to achieving that outcome. This opinion held regardless of one’s gender, age, income, or education. The link between future prosperity and higher education is a consensus opinion.
When asked whether post-secondary education was more important or less important to the province’s future than either hydro rates or health care, only a small minority considered it to be less important. A full two-thirds of Ontarians (67%) believed that post-secondary education was either more important than or just as important as “hydro rates” to the province’s future prosperity while a majority (62%) believed PSE was either more important than or just as important as “the quality of the health care system” to Ontario’s future.
Keep reading here…
November 14, 2011 by David
Today, I’m speaking at the Credit Union Central Canada Government Relations Conference about the public opinion landscape as it relates to politics, the mood of the country, and financial services in Canada.
My presentation will focus somewhat on the Occupy Protests happening all over the country. Over two weeks ago, we released some public opinion data that we conducted with the Corporate and Community Social Responsibility Conference which found that while a majority of Canadians support many of the messages the protests are making, only 41% have a favourable impression of the protests and only 15% believe they will have a positive impact on politics in Canada.
In other words, most Canadians like the message, just not the messenger and most believe that governments will not respond because special interests have too much control over public policy.
Despite this worrisome level of cynicism and apathy, the protests have had significant consequences for the financial services industry in the United States. On November 5th, Occupy protesters in a number of cities organized Bank Transfer Day where they urged consumers to withdraw all their assets from private banks and transfer them to credit unions or other co-operatives.
Since September when the Bank of America introduced a flat-$5 fee to its customers, credit unions in the United States have seen a 50% increase in new account sign-ups or 650,000 new members.
There hasn’t been any news coverage of a similar trend in Canada, but our research finds that there is potential. Over six in ten Canadians (64%) either strongly or somewhat agreed that Canadian financial institutions have been reckless and greedy. Many Canadians don’t have a favourable impression of banks, despite the fact that no Canadian bank failed nor required government bailouts and most Canadians use one of the five Chartered Banks for most of their banking needs. Nonetheless, the experience in the United States last week demonstrates that when public opinion turns against something (like banks) who then go and spark outrage by doing something that seems unfair, consumers will react.
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